Keeping it simple

[Kevin21]

Hey,
i've been learning the ropes for about a month now, reading up on as much as i can. Some stuff seems simple enough, and obviously some stuff is quite complicated. However every time i look at the graph for the Dow, all i see is that, say for example, if you had live feed and a intra day graph (like share scope pro)on a 1-5min time frame, with 100min EMA, then if you just stick to the moving average and the trend line then, pretty much most of the time you'll will take a little bit away with you. Am i just being young and naive here...?

 

[laptop1]

Hey,
i've been learning the ropes for about a month now, reading up on as much as i can. Some stuff seems simple enough, and obviously some stuff is quite complicated. However every time i look at the graph for the Dow, all i see is that, say for example, if you had live feed and a intra day graph (like share scope pro)on a 1-5min time frame, with 100min EMA, then if you just stick to the moving average and the trend line then, pretty much most of the time you'll will take a little bit away with you. Am i just being young and naive here...?

It looks easy looking at charts that have been drawn in the past. Further you would tend to look at only the wining trades. Look over the chart again and see how you manage the ones that didn't work and how much room you was willing to give to the one that would have worked out. Also if you are spreadbetting add 5 points off every trade you win and add 5 points to every trade you lose. Come back and tell us what it know looks like.

 

[new_trader]

Hey,
i've been learning the ropes for about a month now, reading up on as much as i can. Some stuff seems simple enough, and obviously some stuff is quite complicated. However every time i look at the graph for the Dow, all i see is that, say for example, if you had live feed and a intra day graph (like share scope pro)on a 1-5min time frame, with 100min EMA, then if you just stick to the moving average and the trend line then, pretty much most of the time you'll will take a little bit away with you. Am i just being young and naive here...?

Get a friend to print a chart that you have not seen. Tell them to cover up the entire chart and only reveal only 1 bar at a time that will give a rough simulation of live trading. It's not as easy when you don't have all the information at once. Also, the moving average on a live chart changes with every bar, it only looks obvious once the chart is complete.

 

[TheBramble]

Hey,
i've been learning the ropes for about a month now, reading up on as much as i can. Some stuff seems simple enough, and obviously some stuff is quite complicated. However every time i look at the graph for the Dow, all i see is that, say for example, if you had live feed and a intra day graph (like share scope pro)on a 1-5min time frame, with 100min EMA, then if you just stick to the moving average and the trend line then, pretty much most of the time you'll will take a little bit away with you. Am i just being young and naive here...?

Not naive, just simple. The thing is Kevin, simple works better than complex. MA and X-MA are one of the few standard pieces of TA along with trend awareness that have quite literally stood the test of time.

Yes, it is that simple. Ensure you are using the right MAs for your trading style and timeframe and for the current phase of the market. And just keep taking the middle third.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Yes, ma's will change as the bar forms, shorter period ma's are affected far more than longer period. The 100 ema in question here stays reasonably steady on a 1 min chart as would be expected.

I have taken some shots of the ftse at the open this morning I have tried to capture the short ma wagging its tail all over the shop, not sure if ive managed that but the 100 ema is shown steady.

Another simple trick if you have crt monitors is use projector pens to "project":cheesy: the ma's forward and keep a look out for divergence, maybe not a good idea folks trying this on flat panels.

 

[Kevin21]

Well i decided to put my simple plan into action today. I got up at lunch time today and just sat and watched the ftse 100 whiles waiting for the dow to open. On the ftse i successfully spotted an upward trend and i took home 16points after the spread. I went a pound a point so i was 16 quid up
At 2:30 the dow opened... I told myself not to trade the first hour. So i sat and watched it go up and up, then after an hour i jumped on. It was trading above the EMA so i went long. but it just traded sideway. I quickly lost 15points so i pulled out. The second trade was a bit pointless really. I thought to myself "why did you just pull straight out?" So i i though i'd go long again thinking we were gonna go into an up trend. As before it just traded side ways then it started to go south a bit... After trading sidways a bit more and losing another 25 quid, i pulled out and thought to mself that i should be patient and wait for a clear opportunity, and once it breaks the EMA, wait at least 15mins to see if it's carrying on in the same general direction.
It now breaks the EMA and heads south in a sharpe move. I watched it for a bit to see if it would carry on, then i thought i wanna go short on this, but by this point i had already lost 50 pounds, so decided to call it quits for the day. Turns out that i was right, and its turned into a nice downward trend. At the time of typing, if i got in when i thought i should of, i would of taken 42 points. So if i didn't mess about trying to find an opportunity when it was trading sideways i would of been 58 points up, net of spread points. I'll post graphs and more details later. Just trading one day with real money, i've learn't so much more.

 

[fxwinner22]

welcome to the 'shoulda woulda coulda' club

im the chairman, thank for paying your fees

 

[newt24]

nice post laptop1!!!

 

[magten]

hind sight is the exact science

if only it was that simple we would all be living in the Bahamas