Ivan's Journal

[ivantchourilov]

Introduction

This is a blog that I have decided to start to hold a virtual portfolio. I am currently a trader of Indices, however I originally started by trading shares, and never did quite well. So I decided to revisit this just for fun, to see how much I can make from a $60,000 portfolio, with no leverage. Please remember that I am not a stock trader, and most likely won't commit my money to stocks for a long time (possibly retirement).

I don't even know why I am doing this, possibly nostaligia about when I started trading without looking at anything or understanding anything. Let's see how this goes...

I will probably add a daily reflection of what i think of the state of the markets, based on my futures trading. Sorry if i bore anyone.

I am not taking into consideration Currency Risk and Transaction Costs. I'm way too lazy for that.

 

[ivantchourilov]

Asset Allocation

Here are the asset allcoation that I will have (approximately):

Financials: 20%-30%
Materials:20-30%
Pharmaceuticals:0-5%
Food, Beverage and Tobacco:0-10%
International Stocks: 10-15%
Cash:0-10%

 

[ivantchourilov]

First Trades

Here are the first trades that I would like to make, in line with the asset allocations in the previous post.



Financials: ANZ, SUN
Materials: BHP, RIO
Pharmaceuticals:CSL
Food, Beverage and Tobacco:FGL
International Stocks: BGM (NYSE), FRE (NYSE)

 

[ivantchourilov]

Executions

Here are the executions:

ANZ: 365 @ 16.40 = 5986
SUN: 300 @ 11.30 = 3390
BHP: 300 @ 36.00 = 10800
RIO: 100 @ 111.53 = 11153
CSL: 50@ 34.30 = 1715
FGL: 1000 @ 4.95 = 4950

BGM (NYSE): 1000 @10.18 = 10180
FRE (NYSE): 1500 @ 7.52 = 11280

total: $59454

 

[ivantchourilov]

Today's Action - ASX

It is currently Tuesday, 3.02pm in Melbourne, Australia.
It is currently Tuesday, 1.02am in New York, USA.
It is also Tuesday, however 6.02am in London, UK.

Last night we saw a crash in commodities. Oil finally moved below that $122 support level, and ended up continuing its burst. It was like a pimple. Have you noticed, the US dollar is going okay now, oil is off its highs and the equties are still beaten up with a stick?

Dow fell some 47 points last night, after starting out poorly and then rallying before losing ground again late in the session. ASX got hammered this morning, however is currently rallying as well. The materials sector is currently down by 6.2%! 2 hours after lunch, the market recovered 75 points from its low at 1pm (over 130 points since last close).

A reaction pretty much had to happen at that point due to the markets being HEAVILY oversold. A major support (Jan 2006) was sitting at 4760, and it bounced back off it again. Last time the ASX/S&P 200 did that was when the dow was under 11000 in July. This is all starting to feel like a Tuesday reversal. Maybe Art Cashin from UBS is correct, and according to his Dow Theory, today could mean a day to start piling on the goods. Several MA have been now crossed.

Personally, I'm long atm on the SPI200 (future for the underlying S&P 200) and I have a feeling the rally will continue on overnight in the US and the Asian markets. I don't know at this point in time when I will exit some of my longs, but it feels like 4900 will be a point. This rally may well continue to 5000-5100 over this week. We shall see. The DOW is looking like 10,000 in 2 months or 12,000 in 3. Who knows? Very interested to see where the FTSE will be, and how Dow will take the Fed meeting overnight. I have a feeling that Tuesday will be an up day for the Dow. I think it will test the resistance point at 14500. Big point.

Ivan

 

[ivantchourilov]

i've decided to move this profile to Shares and Markets