Is this strategy dumb?

[tonegawa]

I am new to forex trading, but I think I'm learning fast.
Till now I earned +$50 on a $50000 fxcm demo account.

When I trade I use just limits, without "stop losses" so, if the market behaves in a way a don't expect, I just wait for it to get back just a little above where I ordered a "buy" in order to avoid losses.

So far, this strategy is working. Sometimes I have to wait 1/2 days but it doesn't matter. Even if once in a while, the currency fails to get back to where it was, I can
accept the loss but it will be greatly compensated by the other wins.

I know I have to take into account the rollover, but it isn't too big, isn't it?
Also I can use it for currencies which allow carry trade! (Can you tell me which ones?)

So what do you think? Is this a sound strategy? Or my demo account is not realistic?

:?:

 

[lbranjord]

I am new to forex trading, but I think I'm learning fast.
Till now I earned +$50 on a $50000 fxcm demo account.

When I trade I use just limits, without "stop losses" so, if the market behaves in a way a don't expect, I just wait for it to get back just a little above where I ordered a "buy" in order to avoid losses.

So far, this strategy is working. Sometimes I have to wait 1/2 days but it doesn't matter. Even if once in a while, the currency fails to get back to where it was, I can
accept the loss but it will be greatly compensated by the other wins.

I know I have to take into account the rollover, but it isn't too big, isn't it?
Also I can use it for currencies which allow carry trade! (Can you tell me which ones?)

So what do you think? Is this a sound strategy? Or my demo account is not realistic?

:?:

The market is efficient. It will take you down to deep water for a loss enough times for this to not profit. That's not IMO either, just a fact. You can trade without stops, but then you must have a sound exit strategy. You must also trade without targets then. You don't want to cut your winners off at 10 pips but let your losers dance all over you. That doesn't make sense.

 

[pboyles]

I am new to forex trading, but I think I'm learning fast.
Till now I earned +$50 on a $50000 fxcm demo account.

When I trade I use just limits, without "stop losses" so, if the market behaves in a way a don't expect, I just wait for it to get back just a little above where I ordered a "buy" in order to avoid losses.

So far, this strategy is working. Sometimes I have to wait 1/2 days but it doesn't matter. Even if once in a while, the currency fails to get back to where it was, I can
accept the loss but it will be greatly compensated by the other wins.

I know I have to take into account the rollover, but it isn't too big, isn't it?
Also I can use it for currencies which allow carry trade! (Can you tell me which ones?)

So what do you think? Is this a sound strategy? Or my demo account is not realistic?

:?:

It will result in you losing your entire account on one trade. There was a guys called Medbs who tried it here, he had a lot of small winners for a few weeks then two trades wiped out his account. He then tried to lie about it saying he didnt really take the losing trades. The point is that if you trade without stops assuming the market will always come back to where you expect then you will eventually be wiped out, dont assume because you got away with it so far that it wont happen.

 

[tonegawa]

The market is efficient. It will take you down to deep water for a loss enough times for this to not profit. That's not IMO either, just a fact. You can trade without stops, but then you must have a sound exit strategy. You must also trade without targets then. You don't want to cut your winners off at 10 pips but let your losers dance all over you. That doesn't make sense.

What I meant was that I never sell when I am at loss. Sooner or later its value should get back where it was (or just a little above), so I lose just the rollover money.

I need to use limits, in order to make constant (small) profits.

 

[tonegawa]

It will result in you losing your entire account on one trade. There was a guys called Medbs who tried it here, he had a lot of small winners for a few weeks then two trades wiped out his account. He then tried to lie about it saying he didnt really take the losing trades. The point is that if you trade without stops assuming the market will always come back to where you expect then you will eventually be wiped out, dont assume because you got away with it so far that it wont happen.

Actually I never risk my whole account. The other wins should compensate if the market fails to go back to where it was. I will just minimize losses ( for example after a week/ a month.)

 

[pboyles]

What I meant was that I never sell when I am at loss. Sooner or later its value should get back where it was (or just a little above), so I lose just the rollover money.

I need to use limits, in order to make constant (small) profits.

Like I said you'll get wiped out, but I have a feeling you need to find that out for yourself.

 

[Paulie_5]

What I meant was that I never sell when I am at loss. Sooner or later its value should get back where it was (or just a little above), so I lose just the rollover money.

I need to use limits, in order to make constant (small) profits.

Why should it ?

This is what you want to happen - but eventually there will be one trade where the market goes against your position, further .. and further ..... and further ......

Then you'll wipe out your account. No ifs, no buts. You will wipe out.

 

[0007]

. Sooner or later its value should get back where it was (or just a little above), so I lose just the rollover money.

As others have pointed out - this will get you into trouble.

If you are convinced about the bounceback, why not just exit at your sensible stop and re-enter later when your judgement proves correct. All you will have lost is dealing costs and spread - small price to pay for not busting your account. And if the market does go lower and rebounds, you will still make loads. Are you sure you're not suffering from "I want to be right syndrome"?

 

[pboyles]

What I meant was that I never sell when I am at loss. Sooner or later its value should get back where it was (or just a little above), so I lose just the rollover money.

I need to use limits, in order to make constant (small) profits.

Look at EURUSD, it was trading at 0.8225, if you sold there did it bounce back, no it hasnt been there back 11 years. Look at every pair and you will see the same thing.

 

[lbranjord]

You're better off trading with a tiny stoploss and waiting for the big win!
Do the opposite of what you are doing and you'll be on the winning side

 

[shadowninja]

What I meant was that I never sell when I am at loss.

Unless you're a trading god and not telling us, one day you will take the MOALs. Shortly after that, you will no doubt post asking whether it is fair that your broker is taking you to court to get you to sell your family home.

 

[tonegawa]

ok, thanks for your comments.

I understand that my strategy was actually dumb


"Are you sure you're not suffering from "I want to be right syndrome"?"

no, lol. I started forex just one week ago. I have no idea what's right and what's wrong :cheesy:

I was just asking for opinions, since I'm still learning.

 

[pboyles]

ok, thanks for your comments.

I understand that my strategy was actually dumb


"Are you sure you're not suffering from "I want to be right syndrome"?"

no, lol. I started forex just one week ago. I have no idea what's right and what's wrong :cheesy:

I was just asking for opinions, since I'm still learning.

Learn support and resistance and read the james16 chart thread on forexfactory.com that is the best place to get started.

 

[Bullishbear]

If you continue to pursue trading and increase your education, you will one day realize just how stupid your strategy is.

 

[tonegawa]

Learn support and resistance and read the james16 chart thread on forexfactory.com that is the best place to get started.

ok

 

[Quadpips]

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Quadpips