karlis09
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11:30 UK MPC Minutes 1-0-8(E) 1-0-8(P) 2(S) 50M
17:00 US New Home Sales 300K(E) 290K(P) 70K(S) 50M
21:15 US FOMC Rate Decision N/A
22:00 NZ RBNZ Rate Decision 3.0%(E) 3.0%(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Wed January 26, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]
MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it
is customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement
along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no
changes in either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility,
UK's quantitative easing program), today will be the first time for
a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the
forecast:
11:30 EU Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes Forecast 1-0-8 Previous 1-0-8
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY (2 Vote For Hike) / SELL (2 Vote For QE)
[17:00am EU Time]
U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home
Sales, therefore we are likely to see a strong release today. Here
is the forecast:
17:00 EU Time New Home Sales Forecast 300K Previous 290K
ACTION: SELL 370K EURUSD BUY 230K EURUSD
[21:15pm EU Time]
The Federal Reserve will probably not surprise the market today and
keep the current Federal Funds rate unchanged while leaving the 600
Billion Dollar stimulus in place as economy is showing moderate
signs of recovery.
[22:00pm EU Time]
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest
rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will
keep rates unchanged today at 3.00%; here is the forecast:
22:00 (EU Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 3.00% Previous 3.00%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 3.25%
by Forexsoup
17:00 US New Home Sales 300K(E) 290K(P) 70K(S) 50M
21:15 US FOMC Rate Decision N/A
22:00 NZ RBNZ Rate Decision 3.0%(E) 3.0%(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Wed January 26, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]
MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and since it
is customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to release a statement
along with its interest rate decision (2 weeks ago) if there were no
changes in either rate decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility,
UK's quantitative easing program), today will be the first time for
a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here is the
forecast:
11:30 EU Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes Forecast 1-0-8 Previous 1-0-8
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY (2 Vote For Hike) / SELL (2 Vote For QE)
[17:00am EU Time]
U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home
Sales, therefore we are likely to see a strong release today. Here
is the forecast:
17:00 EU Time New Home Sales Forecast 300K Previous 290K
ACTION: SELL 370K EURUSD BUY 230K EURUSD
[21:15pm EU Time]
The Federal Reserve will probably not surprise the market today and
keep the current Federal Funds rate unchanged while leaving the 600
Billion Dollar stimulus in place as economy is showing moderate
signs of recovery.
[22:00pm EU Time]
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest
rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will
keep rates unchanged today at 3.00%; here is the forecast:
22:00 (EU Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 3.00% Previous 3.00%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 3.25%
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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Headline News: Bank of England's Weale Joins Sentance in Calling For Rate Hike!!!
Bank of England's Weale Joins Sentance in Calling For Rate Hike
The central bank's monetary policy committee split three ways in its latest meeting, with Martin Weale joining Andrew Sentance in voting for an increase in the bank rate by 25 basis points.....
Read more by Forexsoup
Bank of England's Weale Joins Sentance in Calling For Rate Hike
The central bank's monetary policy committee split three ways in its latest meeting, with Martin Weale joining Andrew Sentance in voting for an increase in the bank rate by 25 basis points.....
Read more by Forexsoup
karlis09
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US Dollar Forecast Turns Bearish Short Term
US Dollar Forecast Turns Bearish Short Term
* EUR/USD - Euro Forecast Remains Bullish in Short Term
* GBP/USD - British Pound Could Rally Further
* USD/JPY - Japanese Yen Trading Bias Unclear
* USD/CHF - Swiss Franc Sentiment Points to Trend Continuation
* USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar Could Continue to Strengthen
* GBP/JPY - British Pound Likely to Rally Against Japanese Yen
Continued crowd selling of the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar gives contrarian signal that these currencies could continue higher against the US Dollar through short-term trade. That said, recent Forex Futures and Options sentiment readings warn that the USD could soon set an important bottom on a noteworthy divergence between sentiment and currency price action. It is exceedingly difficult to time market reversals, but it is likewise difficult to ignore early signs that few options and futures traders are betting on and hedging against further US Dollar weakness.
Read more by Forexsoup
US Dollar Forecast Turns Bearish Short Term
* EUR/USD - Euro Forecast Remains Bullish in Short Term
* GBP/USD - British Pound Could Rally Further
* USD/JPY - Japanese Yen Trading Bias Unclear
* USD/CHF - Swiss Franc Sentiment Points to Trend Continuation
* USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar Could Continue to Strengthen
* GBP/JPY - British Pound Likely to Rally Against Japanese Yen
Continued crowd selling of the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar gives contrarian signal that these currencies could continue higher against the US Dollar through short-term trade. That said, recent Forex Futures and Options sentiment readings warn that the USD could soon set an important bottom on a noteworthy divergence between sentiment and currency price action. It is exceedingly difficult to time market reversals, but it is likewise difficult to ignore early signs that few options and futures traders are betting on and hedging against further US Dollar weakness.
Read more by Forexsoup
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karlis09
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USDJPY Enters the Spotlight As Traders Await the U.S. GDP Report
Fundamental Outlook
Economic activity in the world’s largest economy is expected to rise 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter after climbing 2.6 percent the quarter prior. Indeed, a reading in line with expectations will mark the highest level since the first quarter of 2010. Expansion will likely be due to a pickup in private demand. Meanwhile, the breakdown of the release may show that auto sales extended last quarter's gain as motor vehicles posted an impressive December return after showing normal returns n October in November. Growth in equipment and software may pare some of its gains, while nonresidential and residential investments is predicted to continue its southern journey.
Not to overlook, consumer spending probably provided a boost to economic activity. Spending is a key gauge heading into the GDP report due to the fact that it accounts for almost 70 percent of the overall economic activity. Tomorrow' report trails new and pending home sales data for the month of December which showed an increase of 17.5 and 2.0 percent respectively. Both readings bode well for the U.S. as many economists have been referring to growth in the world's largest economy as a homeless recovery because the housing market stayed at depressed levels longer than expected. All in all, the recent housing data paired a better than expected GDP release may provide the dollar with a much needed correction as the currency started the new year weighed by poor fundamentals.
USDJPY: The pair recently broke above descending trend line that remained intact since earlier this month. This level also coincides with the 100-day simple moving average. If price action can hold above this level, additional gains may be in the horizon. However, it is worth noting that our speculative sentiment index stands at 4.56and signals for losses in pair.
Read more by Forexsoup
Fundamental Outlook
Economic activity in the world’s largest economy is expected to rise 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter after climbing 2.6 percent the quarter prior. Indeed, a reading in line with expectations will mark the highest level since the first quarter of 2010. Expansion will likely be due to a pickup in private demand. Meanwhile, the breakdown of the release may show that auto sales extended last quarter's gain as motor vehicles posted an impressive December return after showing normal returns n October in November. Growth in equipment and software may pare some of its gains, while nonresidential and residential investments is predicted to continue its southern journey.
Not to overlook, consumer spending probably provided a boost to economic activity. Spending is a key gauge heading into the GDP report due to the fact that it accounts for almost 70 percent of the overall economic activity. Tomorrow' report trails new and pending home sales data for the month of December which showed an increase of 17.5 and 2.0 percent respectively. Both readings bode well for the U.S. as many economists have been referring to growth in the world's largest economy as a homeless recovery because the housing market stayed at depressed levels longer than expected. All in all, the recent housing data paired a better than expected GDP release may provide the dollar with a much needed correction as the currency started the new year weighed by poor fundamentals.
USDJPY: The pair recently broke above descending trend line that remained intact since earlier this month. This level also coincides with the 100-day simple moving average. If price action can hold above this level, additional gains may be in the horizon. However, it is worth noting that our speculative sentiment index stands at 4.56and signals for losses in pair.
Read more by Forexsoup
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karlis09
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US Advance GDP q/q
15:30 (EU Time) US Adv. GDP 3.5%(E) 2.6%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Fri January 28, 2011
[15:30 EU Time]
We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same
time of this release, however I'd recommend to trade the U.S.
release only as the market will be paying much more attention to it,
especially when the Feds are also watching it. Here's the forecast
for U.S. Adv. GDP:
15:30 (EU Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.5% Previous 2.6%
ACTION: 3.8% SELL EURUSD 3.2% BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
15:30 (EU Time) US Adv. GDP 3.5%(E) 2.6%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Fri January 28, 2011
[15:30 EU Time]
We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same
time of this release, however I'd recommend to trade the U.S.
release only as the market will be paying much more attention to it,
especially when the Feds are also watching it. Here's the forecast
for U.S. Adv. GDP:
15:30 (EU Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.5% Previous 2.6%
ACTION: 3.8% SELL EURUSD 3.2% BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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CA GDP m/m & RBA Interest Rate
15:30 (EU Time) CA GDP m/m 0.2%(E) 0.2%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
5:30 (EU Time) 01/02 AU RBA Rate 4.75%(E) 4.75%(P) 0.25%(S) 100M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Mon January 31, 2011
[15:30 EU Time]
We'll be receiving GDP release from Canada today. Here's the
forecast:
15:30 EU Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.4%
[5:30 EU Time]
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to keep borrowing costs
unchanged in November, as all 22 analysts agree in a survey by
Bloomberg... Here's forecast:
5:30 (EU Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.75% Previous 4.75%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 5.00%
by Forexsoup
15:30 (EU Time) CA GDP m/m 0.2%(E) 0.2%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
5:30 (EU Time) 01/02 AU RBA Rate 4.75%(E) 4.75%(P) 0.25%(S) 100M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Mon January 31, 2011
[15:30 EU Time]
We'll be receiving GDP release from Canada today. Here's the
forecast:
15:30 EU Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.4%
[5:30 EU Time]
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to keep borrowing costs
unchanged in November, as all 22 analysts agree in a survey by
Bloomberg... Here's forecast:
5:30 (EU Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.75% Previous 4.75%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 5.00%
by Forexsoup
karlis09
Member
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UK Manufacturing PMI & US ISM Manufacturing PMI
11:30 EU Time UK Manufacturing PMI 58.0(E) 58.3(P) 2.0(S) 50M
17:00 EU Time US ISM Manuf. PMI 57.8(E) 58.5(P) 2.5(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Tue February 1, 2011
[11:30am EU Time]
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it's usually released
during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for
surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the
currency for the rest of the month. Here is the forecast:
11:30 (EU Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 58.0 Previous 58.3
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 60.0 SELL 55.0
[17:00 EU Time]
ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI
(Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator, traders
generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend.
Here's the forecast:
17:00 EU Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.8 Previous 58.5
ACTION: 61.0 BUY USDJPY / 55.0 BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
11:30 EU Time UK Manufacturing PMI 58.0(E) 58.3(P) 2.0(S) 50M
17:00 EU Time US ISM Manuf. PMI 57.8(E) 58.5(P) 2.5(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Tue February 1, 2011
[11:30am EU Time]
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it's usually released
during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for
surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the
currency for the rest of the month. Here is the forecast:
11:30 (EU Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 58.0 Previous 58.3
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 60.0 SELL 55.0
[17:00 EU Time]
ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI
(Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator, traders
generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend.
Here's the forecast:
17:00 EU Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.8 Previous 58.5
ACTION: 61.0 BUY USDJPY / 55.0 BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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US ADP NFP Employment Change
15:15 US ADP NFP 150K(E) 293K(P) 50K(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Wed February 2, 2011
[15:15 EU Time]
ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it's own
estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is
high impact release and it's followed by currency traders as they
look for hints on Friday's NFP official release. Here's the
forecast:
15:15 EU Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 150K Previous 297K
ACTION: 200K BUY USDJPY / 100K BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
15:15 US ADP NFP 150K(E) 293K(P) 50K(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Wed February 2, 2011
[15:15 EU Time]
ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it's own
estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is
high impact release and it's followed by currency traders as they
look for hints on Friday's NFP official release. Here's the
forecast:
15:15 EU Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 150K Previous 297K
ACTION: 200K BUY USDJPY / 100K BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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UK Services PMI, EU ECB Rate Decision
11:30 UK Services PMI 51.2(E) 49.7(P) 2.5(S) 50M
14:45 EU ECB Rate Decision 1.00(E) 1.00(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 3, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]
We'll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at
11:30 (EU Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the
Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here's the
forecast:
11:30 (EU Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 51.2 Previous 49.7
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 54.0 SELL 48.5
[14:45 EU Time]
ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision
today, it is widely believed that ECB will keep current rate
unchanged. Here's the forecast:
14:45 (EU Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD BUY 1.25% SELL 0.75%
by Forexsoup
11:30 UK Services PMI 51.2(E) 49.7(P) 2.5(S) 50M
14:45 EU ECB Rate Decision 1.00(E) 1.00(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 3, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]
We'll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at
11:30 (EU Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the
Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here's the
forecast:
11:30 (EU Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 51.2 Previous 49.7
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 54.0 SELL 48.5
[14:45 EU Time]
ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision
today, it is widely believed that ECB will keep current rate
unchanged. Here's the forecast:
14:45 (EU Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD BUY 1.25% SELL 0.75%
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 36K in January Amid Forecasts of 146K
Nonfarm payrolls in the world’s largest economy rose a mere 36K in January after climbing a revised 121K the month prior amid economists’ expectations of 146K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 9.0 percent to mark the lowest level since April 2009. Indeed, there was a lackluster performance in the dollar as traders digest the report and its implications for the U.S. economy.
Winter conditions in the U.S. likely dampened the labor force as approximately 916,000 workers said that they did not attend work. Taking a look at the breakdown of the release, the labor force participation rate fell to 64.2 percent, while construction payrolls dipped 30K. The 26 year low in the labor force participation rate is worrisome due to the fact that those individuals not included in the labor force surged to 86.2 million from 83.9 million. Furthermore, hourly earnings pushed 0.35 percent higher to mark the largest gain since the end of 2008. It is also worth noting that the seasonally adjusted underemployment rate came in at 16.1 percent to post the lowest level since April 2009.
Taking a look at the reaction subsequent to the dismal Nonfarm payrolls report, after the initial rally in the dollar, currency markets showed a lackluster performance. As the EURUSD holds its key support level at the 1.36 area, traders should not rule a slight reversal to the upside. Looking ahead, focus will now shift their focus to the European leaders meeting in Brussels as uncertainty surrounding the European Financial Stability Fund ability to purchase government bonds remain.
by Forexsoup
Nonfarm payrolls in the world’s largest economy rose a mere 36K in January after climbing a revised 121K the month prior amid economists’ expectations of 146K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 9.0 percent to mark the lowest level since April 2009. Indeed, there was a lackluster performance in the dollar as traders digest the report and its implications for the U.S. economy.
Winter conditions in the U.S. likely dampened the labor force as approximately 916,000 workers said that they did not attend work. Taking a look at the breakdown of the release, the labor force participation rate fell to 64.2 percent, while construction payrolls dipped 30K. The 26 year low in the labor force participation rate is worrisome due to the fact that those individuals not included in the labor force surged to 86.2 million from 83.9 million. Furthermore, hourly earnings pushed 0.35 percent higher to mark the largest gain since the end of 2008. It is also worth noting that the seasonally adjusted underemployment rate came in at 16.1 percent to post the lowest level since April 2009.
Taking a look at the reaction subsequent to the dismal Nonfarm payrolls report, after the initial rally in the dollar, currency markets showed a lackluster performance. As the EURUSD holds its key support level at the 1.36 area, traders should not rule a slight reversal to the upside. Looking ahead, focus will now shift their focus to the European leaders meeting in Brussels as uncertainty surrounding the European Financial Stability Fund ability to purchase government bonds remain.
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 07.02.2011
* US Dollar Sees a Bounce but Fundamental Support is Lacking
* Euro Stages Major Turnaround - is this the Reversal?
* Yen Weakness Could Be Short-Lived, Consolidation Ahead
* British Pound: Risk Trends May Undermine Gains Hawkish BOE
* Australian Dollar Rally May Gather Pace As Growth Prospects Improve
* New Zealand Dollar Outlook Points to Additional Losses
By Forexsoup
* US Dollar Sees a Bounce but Fundamental Support is Lacking
* Euro Stages Major Turnaround - is this the Reversal?
* Yen Weakness Could Be Short-Lived, Consolidation Ahead
* British Pound: Risk Trends May Undermine Gains Hawkish BOE
* Australian Dollar Rally May Gather Pace As Growth Prospects Improve
* New Zealand Dollar Outlook Points to Additional Losses
By Forexsoup
karlis09
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AU Employment Change
2:30 (EU Time) AU Employment Change 20K(E) 2.3K(P) 30K(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 10, 2011
[2:30am EU Time]
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll)
and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the
Employment Changes in Australia, here's the forecast:
2:30pm (EU Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 2.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.0% Previous 5.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL 0K
By Forexsoup
2:30 (EU Time) AU Employment Change 20K(E) 2.3K(P) 30K(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 10, 2011
[2:30am EU Time]
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll)
and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the
Employment Changes in Australia, here's the forecast:
2:30pm (EU Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 20K Previous 2.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.0% Previous 5.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 50K SELL 0K
By Forexsoup
karlis09
Member
- Messages
- 65
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- 0
UK BOE Interest Rate Decision
14:00 (EU Time) UK Interest Rate 0.50%(E) 0.50%(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 10, 2011
[14:00 EU Time]
14:00 (EU Time) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) Forecast 200B Previous 200B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) SELL 225B (APF)
By Forexsoup
14:00 (EU Time) UK Interest Rate 0.50%(E) 0.50%(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 10, 2011
[14:00 EU Time]
14:00 (EU Time) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) Forecast 200B Previous 200B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) SELL 225B (APF)
By Forexsoup
karlis09
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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 14/02/2011
# US Dollar May Have Set Important Low versus Euro
# Euro Confidence May Collapse if GDP Figures Feed Financial Concerns
# Yen Outlook Points to Further Losses
# British Pound Weakness To Be Short-Lived on Higher Growth, Inflation
# Australian Dollar Weakness Ahead As RBA Curbs Rate Expectations
# New Zealand Dollar Vulnerable as Rate Expectations Falter
Read more by Forexsoup
# US Dollar May Have Set Important Low versus Euro
# Euro Confidence May Collapse if GDP Figures Feed Financial Concerns
# Yen Outlook Points to Further Losses
# British Pound Weakness To Be Short-Lived on Higher Growth, Inflation
# Australian Dollar Weakness Ahead As RBA Curbs Rate Expectations
# New Zealand Dollar Vulnerable as Rate Expectations Falter
Read more by Forexsoup
karlis09
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UK CPI y/y & US Core Retail Sales m/m
11:30(Eu Time) UK CPI y/y 4.0%(E) 3.7%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M
15:30(Eu Time) US Core Retail 0.6%(E) 0.5%(P) 0.6%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Tue February 15, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]
We'll be trading the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 4:30am
NY Time today. We'll be looking at the yearly release figure and the
market could react with lots of volatitility as CPI is the basic
measurement of Inflation, therefore expect to see more exaggerated
moves if we get a huge surprise release. Here is the forecast:
11:30 EU Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 4.0% Previous 3.7%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 4.3% SELL 3.6%
[15:30 EU Time]
We'll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out
of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail
Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)... Here's the forecast:
15:30 (EU Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.1% BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
11:30(Eu Time) UK CPI y/y 4.0%(E) 3.7%(P) 0.3%(S) 50M
15:30(Eu Time) US Core Retail 0.6%(E) 0.5%(P) 0.6%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Tue February 15, 2011
[11:30 EU Time]
We'll be trading the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 4:30am
NY Time today. We'll be looking at the yearly release figure and the
market could react with lots of volatitility as CPI is the basic
measurement of Inflation, therefore expect to see more exaggerated
moves if we get a huge surprise release. Here is the forecast:
11:30 EU Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 4.0% Previous 3.7%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 4.3% SELL 3.6%
[15:30 EU Time]
We'll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out
of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail
Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)... Here's the forecast:
15:30 (EU Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: 1.2% BUY USDJPY / 0.1% BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
karlis09
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U.K. Inflation Rises 4.0 Percent in January, GBP Tumbles Against Most Major Currencie
Consumer prices in the U.K. rose an annualized 4.0 percent in January after climbing 3.7 percent the month, which was in line with economists’ expectations. At the same time, core prices increased 3.0 amid forecasts of 3.1 percent. The gain in inflation marks the highest level since November 2008 and will lead Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to write a letter to the Exchequer George Osborne, explaining why prices are so high.
Looking, inflation is expected to stay stubbornly above the central bank’s target as the increase in value added taxes (VAT) places upward pressure on price growth. Meanwhile, gains in cocoa, cotton, and sugar will also lead to gains in prices going forward.
Taking a look at price action, the British pound pushed lower against most of its major counterparts as the data was already priced into the markets. GBP traders will now shift their focus to the Bank of England inflation report which will be released tomorrow at 9:30 GMT. As inflation concerns remain, an increase in the inflation report could lead the pound to pare some of its recent gains, while a downbeat tone pared with a dismal jobless claims release could extend Tuesday’s selloff. The last report suggested that prices would ease to around 1.5 percent by the end of 2012.
The GBPUSD reversed course at its overnight high of 1.6104 to currently trade 1.6037 following the U.K. inflation report. As technical indicators begin to paint a bearish picture, bears will look for aclose below 1.36 for confirmation of a reversal in the pair.
by Forexsoup
Consumer prices in the U.K. rose an annualized 4.0 percent in January after climbing 3.7 percent the month, which was in line with economists’ expectations. At the same time, core prices increased 3.0 amid forecasts of 3.1 percent. The gain in inflation marks the highest level since November 2008 and will lead Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to write a letter to the Exchequer George Osborne, explaining why prices are so high.
Looking, inflation is expected to stay stubbornly above the central bank’s target as the increase in value added taxes (VAT) places upward pressure on price growth. Meanwhile, gains in cocoa, cotton, and sugar will also lead to gains in prices going forward.
Taking a look at price action, the British pound pushed lower against most of its major counterparts as the data was already priced into the markets. GBP traders will now shift their focus to the Bank of England inflation report which will be released tomorrow at 9:30 GMT. As inflation concerns remain, an increase in the inflation report could lead the pound to pare some of its recent gains, while a downbeat tone pared with a dismal jobless claims release could extend Tuesday’s selloff. The last report suggested that prices would ease to around 1.5 percent by the end of 2012.
The GBPUSD reversed course at its overnight high of 1.6104 to currently trade 1.6037 following the U.K. inflation report. As technical indicators begin to paint a bearish picture, bears will look for aclose below 1.36 for confirmation of a reversal in the pair.
by Forexsoup
karlis09
Member
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Bank of England Inflation Report Shows Inflation, Growth to Moderate
The Bank of England said this morning that inflation will likely remain high over this year and higher than the MPC thought three months ago. However, they do expect inflation to fall back next year, though uncertain unto what extent but possibly falling below the 2% target. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that there are large risks on both sides of the inflation outlook but it is “reasonable” to consider inflation easing in 2012.
On growth the central bank said that their outlook for GDP growth is lower than in November, the forecast remains for moderate growth in 2011. The central bank did, however, lower their 2011 GDP forecast on weak Q4 growth noting that the outlook for growth remains “highly uncertain”. Adding that there was a wider than usual range of forecasts and opinions among the MPC amid such uncertain times.
On balance then the inflation report mirrored what was said in Governor King’s letter to Chancellor Osborne, acknowledging the latest acceleration in inflation but maintaining that the MPC must steer monetary policy based on the CPI outlook over the medium-term. He added that there is no pre-commitment on rates, noting that some are ahead of the curve in terms of tightening expectations and timing. In short, with such a high degree of uncertainty the central bank is cautious in trying to predict exactly how things are going to play out and are keeping all the options open.
The pound was immediately weaker across the board, and against the buck it extended its morning declines, on the not-so-hawkish inflation report. With the central bank standing by its estimations that inflation will moderate into 2012 and even fall below target waning expectations of imminent rate hikes have taken some wind out of the pound’s sails. We remain dip buyers of the pound at this stage given that the Bank of England is still likely to be the next major CB to move on rates ahead of the ECB and of course the BoJ and Fed.
By Forexsoup
The Bank of England said this morning that inflation will likely remain high over this year and higher than the MPC thought three months ago. However, they do expect inflation to fall back next year, though uncertain unto what extent but possibly falling below the 2% target. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that there are large risks on both sides of the inflation outlook but it is “reasonable” to consider inflation easing in 2012.
On growth the central bank said that their outlook for GDP growth is lower than in November, the forecast remains for moderate growth in 2011. The central bank did, however, lower their 2011 GDP forecast on weak Q4 growth noting that the outlook for growth remains “highly uncertain”. Adding that there was a wider than usual range of forecasts and opinions among the MPC amid such uncertain times.
On balance then the inflation report mirrored what was said in Governor King’s letter to Chancellor Osborne, acknowledging the latest acceleration in inflation but maintaining that the MPC must steer monetary policy based on the CPI outlook over the medium-term. He added that there is no pre-commitment on rates, noting that some are ahead of the curve in terms of tightening expectations and timing. In short, with such a high degree of uncertainty the central bank is cautious in trying to predict exactly how things are going to play out and are keeping all the options open.
The pound was immediately weaker across the board, and against the buck it extended its morning declines, on the not-so-hawkish inflation report. With the central bank standing by its estimations that inflation will moderate into 2012 and even fall below target waning expectations of imminent rate hikes have taken some wind out of the pound’s sails. We remain dip buyers of the pound at this stage given that the Bank of England is still likely to be the next major CB to move on rates ahead of the ECB and of course the BoJ and Fed.
By Forexsoup
karlis09
Member
- Messages
- 65
- Likes
- 0
Analysis for 17/02 US Core CPI m/m
15:30 (EU Time) US Core CPI m/m 0.1%(E) 0.1%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 17, 2011
[15:30 EU Time]
We'll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer
Price Index, also known as the "true cost of living", it is what
drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this
release will be widely watched. Here's the forecast for the CPI:
15:30 (EU Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
15:30 (EU Time) US Core CPI m/m 0.1%(E) 0.1%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
E = Expected Release Figure
P = Previous Release Figure
S = Deviation or Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement In Pips (if deviation is hit)
NEWS TRADING
Thu February 17, 2011
[15:30 EU Time]
We'll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer
Price Index, also known as the "true cost of living", it is what
drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this
release will be widely watched. Here's the forecast for the CPI:
15:30 (EU Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD
by Forexsoup
