Interesting week due re Fomc and Boe Qtrly Inflation Report

[bbmac]

Interesting couple of days coming up what with tomorrow's U.s Fomc statement and Wednesday's Uk Boe's Qtrly Inflation report. Both releases should provide the fundamentalists/global macro players with food for thought. As a technical trader I am interested and like to keep up / understand the possible implications but they form no part in my trading edge.

Turning to the Fomc it seems that with weak data out of the U.s generally recently and the weak headline NFP numbers these last 2 releases they will leave the target rate near zero for some time to come and may indicate that more strongly in the statement in an attempt to boost investment/lending/spending in the U.s The risk of inflation looks 'contained' and again they could indicate more strongly that the risks are probably more toward deflation. Less likely is that they will indicate, in this statement anyway, that they 'stand ready' to increase the Qe programme, and even less likely is that they will do so at this meeting, or indicate stronger possible future alternative/additional measures in stronger more defiante language, or take them now.

Unusually Uncertain was the statement recently from Bernanke about the economic conditions and outlook ( I wonder whether he will remembered for this like Greenspan was for Irrational Exuberance ?) and whether if the fomc alter their stance significantly will it be reflected, this timke round at least in decisive action in that respect or at least a definate hint in the accompanying statement that it has been considered and may be neccessary at some future point should things not improve considerably.

G/L

 

[bedsit]

Interesting couple of days coming up what with tomorrow's U.s Fomc statement and Wednesday's Uk Boe's Qtrly Inflation report.

G/L

Hopefully more interesting than yesterday.
It seems to me it's difficult to get any decent trades at the moment. Not long ago I heard from a FX trader that it's best to avoid August (IHO lower volume causes strange price action)

 

[ivantchourilov]

Hopefully more interesting than yesterday.
It seems to me it's difficult to get any decent trades at the moment. Not long ago I heard from a FX trader that it's best to avoid August (IHO lower volume causes strange price action)

yea you are on the dot. August is always tough to make trades in. Its too hot in US, and everything is on light volume. yesterday was boring as hell.

however if FOMC is indeed going to create QE2, or worse yet, talk down the economy, it could cause some volatility. I wrote about it here. I wrote about the debt issue on the topic here. Also, pragmatic capitalist wrote an amazing article on QE here.