How To Read Market Cycles ???

[not bright]

Hi ,I am a novice at all this trying to get my head around the basiscs
I have been watching Raghee Horner and i am trying to learn how to read the market cycles
Mark Up,Mark Down, Accumulation and Distribution
My thinking is that whatever is on the chart should be giving me an idea of what is coming next.
But im confused by Accumulation and Distribution.
In my way of thinking Accumulation means to buy, to get hold of, to hoard.
So would this not drive the price up on a chart.
Raghee Horner says that accumulation is a flat 3'o clock reading a sideways movement.
As for Distribution that says to me that you are trying to get rid of, to sell so would that not drive the price down on a chart.
I could not figure out what distribution was supposed to look like on a chart the best i could come up with was a gentle sloping downward movement.
What is the difference between selling short and distribution
If huge amounts are sold short that would drive the price down right
If huge amounts are broken into smaller orders and sold off would that be distribution,so is distribution selling large amounts in smaller bundles .
If so what is the purpose of this.
Can anyone please explain or provide a link to good literature on this subject
Many Thanks
Not Bright

 

[deadbroke]

Hi ,I am a novice at all this trying to get my head around the basiscs
I have been watching Raghee Horner and i am trying to learn how to read the market cycles
Mark Up,Mark Down, Accumulation and Distribution
My thinking is that whatever is on the chart should be giving me an idea of what is coming next.
But im confused by Accumulation and Distribution.
In my way of thinking Accumulation means to buy, to get hold of, to hoard.
So would this not drive the price up on a chart.
Raghee Horner says that accumulation is a flat 3'o clock reading a sideways movement.
As for Distribution that says to me that you are trying to get rid of, to sell so would that not drive the price down on a chart.
I could not figure out what distribution was supposed to look like on a chart the best i could come up with was a gentle sloping downward movement.
What is the difference between selling short and distribution
If huge amounts are sold short that would drive the price down right
If huge amounts are broken into smaller orders and sold off would that be distribution,so is distribution selling large amounts in smaller bundles .
If so what is the purpose of this.
Can anyone please explain or provide a link to good literature on this subject
Many Thanks
Not Bright

Technical Analysis of Stock Trends 9th Edition will answer all your questions and then some, Bright One.

 

[VielGeld]

Forget about cycles or whatever, everything you need to know is on the chart.

The very best thing you can learn is how price moves in accordance to player participation. How does it move when buyers are in control? How does it move when sellers have the edge? When both agree on a certain price? Why does price trend? Why does it stay in ranges?

You must look to the fundamental aspect of price action before applying any sort of perception filter such as technical analysis to the market.

The main aspects of what I would say are essential to trading are these four:

1) Psychology.

2) Risk management.

3) Money management.

4) Fundamental understanding of market structure.

(I could add a 5) Application of personal style, but this is a later, natural evolution of the above 4 points)

Books can teach you the first three (and somewhat the fifth) points, but as far as I know you're up the creek for #4. To understand buyer/seller interaction you must understand the accumulation of orders around certain price levels, and why traders are attracted around here. Until you crack the why of this, forget about going with live money at all.

For example, let's say price has had trouble going through "$100" on a stock. A lot of stops and buy orders will accumulate above this level. What the professional will do is notice this large amount of liquidity and be positioned below the $100 level. Once price breaks $100, there will be a large increase because then the punters come in like ravens above $100, but the rally will quickly fizzle out and likely fail as the professional starts selling to the mugs. So you, my friend, want to be with the professional in that instance by being a buyer below (and exit as he does, too!). The only way to notice this is through experience.

Trading can be hell to get a grasp of, but it doesn't have to be. Watch the chart (and the Depth of Market, and the Level II quotes, etc.), everything is there. Just don't fall into the pit of Gann et al. (i.e. avoid the vendors and scammers!), lol.

Good luck.

 

[not bright]

deadbroke and vielgeld thank you for your replies.
Vielgeld funny so should say that everything is on the charts that is exactly what i was thinking earlier on this evening.
Tomorrow i am going to sit down with pen and paper and figure out the Market structure.
Yeah i am starting to think that the vast majority of these theories and indicators are nonsense.
The purpose of the players who run the game is to take our money.
So how do they do this they trick us into buying, when we should be selling and selling when we should be buying.
They know that we will all be using these indicators and thinking in a certain way because they gave us these indicators and taught us how to use them.
I think it is called disinformation or dirty tricks at its best.
After i have analysed some basic stuff i will run it past you if i may.
All The best
Not Bright

 

[DionysusToast]

As a starting point - seek out the 'book' written by dbphoenix.

It goes through the cycles you are discussing.

And of course, you only need a chart to see it.

Note that I never did end up trading off the information but it does seem a sensible way of looking at the action. You'll have to judge for yourself but I think it will be a good starting point.