How low do you think the Dow will go?

[BillSimmons]

How low do you think the Dow will go? Anything think it will get close to the 30 day low of 12,200?

 

[Doomberg]

In what time frame? Thats a 450pt drop

 

[Black Swan]

The equities markets/sectors have mainly rallied since 2008-9 due to Q.E. and not any overall fundamental performance of the companies. Where will that huge infusion of liquidity go next, where could it go next?

 

[intradaybill]

As long as rates remain low I do not see a reason for the Dow to go down a lot.

 

[Doomberg]

Black Swan i think QE is dodgy as hell, i think it happens a lot in currencies where they push up the price artificially, and then pull it all out which leads to a crash often phucking people over.. and i suppose if you buy billions worth, that in its self will cause an instant rally and give a quick yield

 

[Black Swan]

Black Swan i think QE is dodgy as hell

Benny and the Inkjets have gone on record as stating that QE was put in place to prevent a stock market collapse, (beyond the low that had been reached), and to prop it up moving forward, job done.

The primary reason equities and commodities have risen exponentially (since the lows of 2008-9) are due to zirp, that excess liquidity simply had to find a home above zero interest rates on depreciating currencies. Is the FED out of bullets, can it do another huge round of QE? Do the likes of Freddie and Fanny need their monumental debt refinancing?

IMHO depression 2.0 'lite' is still on the radar.

 

[new_trader]

Black Swan i think QE is dodgy as hell, i think it happens a lot in currencies where they push up the price artificially, and then pull it all out which leads to a crash often phucking people over.. and i suppose if you buy billions worth, that in its self will cause an instant rally and give a quick yield

Although I don't profess to be an expert on Q.E, what you have written here does little to clarify what the process is really all about. I don't think the FED wants 'prices' to fall, they really do want inflation because they consider deflation a scourge. If you doubt it then you would need to ask why other countries are experiencing high inflation while the Bernank says, "Nope, none of that here!" Is it because they apply hedonomics and substitution in their inflation basket? This way they can keep interest rates low through monetization of the debt.

 

[DionysusToast]

I imagine the DOW will be making new highs within a week or 2.

The sky is falling in today. It'll probably be all roses by Tuesday.

I'm long Crude Futures options ;-) might be a dud trade but the potential for a rapid move back up is there and there were some very attractive prices yesterday.

 

[new_trader]

Unsubscribed now that vendor scum has posted.

 

[Doomberg]

new-trader i always lol when i see your name and 2006 join date

Did you never think that maybe in a few years you wouldn't be new?

 

[Black Swan]

I don't think the FED wants 'prices' to fall, they really do want inflation because they consider deflation a scourge..

The only economic example we had for zirp was Japan, many economists/sages suggested that Japan (over the past twenty years) was our *best* case scenario/comparison once zirp was chosen - baked in stagflation; no wage rises/increase in income, job losses, no real tangible growth. Japan just came out of a recession straight back into the next, its debt levels are mind blowing, on a more down to earth metric house prices in certain areas have hardly budged from their implosion 20years back.

In the UK we're seeing the effects now, our own home grown Mrs Watanabes are becoming too scared to spend, let alone invest or speculate, as indicated by the last few months disastrous consumer confidence surveys. Folk are hording and they have precious litle to horde.

The FED/BOE/ECB knew they were entering unchartered territory with their basket case mixture of economic ideologies when they rescued the system as opposed to letting certain banks fail taking savers and investors down with them, the problem was kicked into the long grass which needs cutting back to face up to the scorched earth that lies beneath..it really is fiscal and monetary catch 22.

 

[Black Swan]

I imagine the DOW will be making new highs within a week or 2.

The sky is falling in today. It'll probably be all roses by Tuesday.

I'm long Crude Futures options ;-) might be a dud trade but the potential for a rapid move back up is there and there were some very attractive prices yesterday.

I wonder how many private investors hit gold silver and oil way too late and got rimmed over the past week or so?

 

[Hoggums]

Given the infinity of time there is a 100% chance that the DOW will hit 0 (zero) at some point in the future.

 

[brewski1984]

Given the infinity of time there is a 100% chance that the DOW will hit 0 (zero) at some point in the future.

You're joking, that's where my stop loss is!

 

[leonarda]

how low do you think the dow will go? Anything think it will get close to the 30 day low of 12,200?

12519.5

 

[DionysusToast]

I wonder how many private investors hit gold silver and oil way too late and got rimmed over the past week or so?

Same with oil. Late longs will be feeling the pain. Or rather - would have felt the pain as they'll be out now.

These are probably the same type of traders that will be trying to jump on the 'short CL' bandwaggon today. Chasing the market up and down...

I got fairly lucky yesterday. I was long DTO (double short crude) since last week but I wussed out far too early when oil plunged - below 105 but well above 100...

I was short oil on the fairly loose premise that prices were unsustainable. There was no timing involved.

Now I'm long the 104 options as I guess it'll bounce up - I will certainly cut & run if CL gets much above 105. I still think the highs are unsustainable long term but I think we'll go up again based on it coming down so much yesterday.

Where's n_t?

 

[Black Swan]

oil, silver, gold....had a chuckle to myself whilst driving before, suddenly thought of all the guys who regularly post up on forums that they "never use stops, what's the point?"...er...

 

[Atilla]

In general I think DOW will rise and I can't see it falling much below 11800. If it does then it's hello 10,000.

I think with respect to deflation / inflation etc., my money is on inflation and revaluation of most prices. Like layered levels. Having injected billions and trillions - inflation is only a matter of time. I still use the old simple equation which stands the test of time...


Frequency of Money Exchange x Money Supply = Goods and Service x Inflation

Freq of Ex = economic transactions / activity


Oil to run out in 10-15 years
Gold will increase in response to global uncertainty
Prices will all rise to find new level
Deflation is old hat nonsense - Japan is hardly an exemplery country to take lessons from
Germany would be a better example to what's round the corner for US
DOW like everything else probably will double but only because dollar will collapse
Euro / Yuan will become new standard

Interesting times... :smart:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ation-attack-commentary-by-william-pesek.html

 

[maggieo]

I wondered if someone in here would be so kind to help me.

I would like to use the Dow Jones 30 as an indicator on my MT4 platform. Does anyone know how I can get this without having to keep opening up demo accounts just to view the Dow.

I would like to have it as a chart where I can add my own inidcators on it. Is this possible and where would I get it?

Thank you

 

[Mornington Crescent]

I dont understand your problem when you say you have to "keep opening " accounts
do you only have "temp" demo accounts ?

who do you use for MT4 ?

this will give you what you want but not 24 hr trading
http://www.smartlivemarkets.co.uk/lap/CreateDemo.aspx