he Weekend Commodities Review For the Week Ending August 2nd, 2010

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The Weekend Commodities Review​

A Market Review and Opinion Report By Head Analyst James Mound

For the Week Ending August 2nd, 2010​

Energies

Choppy oil prices are offering severe congestion ahead of a major price breakout. Right now the commodity markets are in bull mode and a weak dollar is helping the cause. However, oil prices remain under recent highs, indicating that there is hesitance to break the market out on short term fundamentals. While it is likely that crude oil makes a run this week, I do expect the market to top between current levels and $83.80. Energies as a whole should see support from a high demand summer, but strong selling from a dollar rally and China weakness will ultimately top energies. Natural gas remains a long term buy.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

**Chart courtesy of Gecko Software's TracknTrade


Financials

Stocks have appeared to gain momentum from strong earnings, however the lack of improvement in jobs and a clear underperforming GDP number overshadowed individual stock strength. Bottom line is that stocks are cross-industry correlated and the industry is overexposed to the economic weakness in the U.S. and abroad. This weakness will be highlighted by the upcoming employment numbers on Friday and therefore I recommend selling into today’s rally with short futures or straight puts. Bonds will likely be choppy and are worthy of a wide short strangle for Sept. The dollar is a strong buy in this area with straight calls, making a pullback in the pound and euro likely. The Canadian dollar is catching a boost on dollar weakness and commodity strength – this is a short with stops at 10120. The Aussie remains a long term short. The yen should be a beneficiary of a weak stock market and I continue to recommend the yen and standby my forecast that:

The Japanese Yen futures will hit 140 before 80 or I will quit writing the Weekend Commodities Review…forever.


Grains

Grains are on the move, benefitting from a strong commodity rally anticipated to end towards the latter part of this week. Take advantage of upside volatility today and possibly tomorrow and pull the call side of the previously recommended strangles, and/or develop straight put positions in corn, wheat and beans. Rice remains a buy with straight calls.

Meats

Hogs remain range bound while live cattle is showing strong signs of a short play and is this week’s Mound Trade Signals featured trade recommendation. Visit www.moundtradesignals.com to sign-up to receive access to this trade recommendation.

Metals

Gold is showing signs of waning demand during this stock market rally. However, this is a bullish indicator for when the stock market shows weakness and a flight to quality ensues. U.S. dollar strength is the only thing that will break this market in my opinion. Show me a strong stock market and a rally in the dollar and you get $100 down in gold in a day or two. Until those two markets go complimentary gold remains bullish. Silver is jumping ahead today and is showing signs of a breakout price rally. Copper remains a long term sell with futures or straight puts if you can haggle the price to something reasonable.


Softs

Coffee is making a push higher but, while I remain long term bullish, I do expect coffee to hold below 184 in the near term and retrace to 165 to shake out weak longs. This will come on dollar strength that is expected in the near term. Cocoa is a strong sell with puts. Cotton has been rallying as anticipated but is fast approaching resistance. Expect a brief pause then another breakout rally to 90. OJ is a sell between 145-155 with a 110 target before year’s end. Sugar hit my 1950 target and should top between current levels and 2100. Lumber remains a buy with long term calls.


*Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodities trading. Losses can exceed your account size and/or margin requirements. Commodities trading can be extremely risky and is not for everyone. Some option strategies have unlimited risk. Educate yourself on the risks and rewards of such investing prior to trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Information provided is compiled by sources believed to be reliable. JMTG or its principals assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have been cancelled or rescheduled. Options do not necessarily move in lock step with the underlying futures movement. Any copy, reprint, broadcast or distribution of this report of any kind is prohibited without the express written consent of James Mound Trading Group LLC.