Gumping's Journal

[Gumping]

Hi All
I’ve been lurking around here and posting irrelevant rubbish for years now but I have contributed little if anything about trading. This is my attempt at trying to learn a bit more about this ‘game’.
I’ve always had a full-time job and have been trading eod and longer term systems. However, I was recently made redundant and hence I’m looking to see if trading will pay the bills.
I have decided to look at quite a few different trading ideas to see if something works out for me. What I’m primarily going to talk about here is my attempts at trading EUR/USD on the shorter time frame of 1min.
Basically, I’m looking for a bit of discipline, and hoping that I can gain that by posting my trades – it might inspire me not to make wild punts. Although I’m net positive for most of the time I’ve been working at M1, my losses do tend to be somewhat large, albeit infrequent.
Since I’m still new to this day trading lark, I’m setting a rather modest target of 20 pips per day. Once I’ve got them that will be it for the day. I simply don’t think I have the concentration span to do more at the moment but that could change.
Other point to note is that I am still learning and hence will NOT be posting live calls or any such. Calls are made after trades close, the idea being to document my thoughts.
Thanks for reading

 

[rathcoole_exile]

best of luck, will follow with interest ......

 

[BSD]

Yup, best of luck from me too !!!

 

[Gumping]

So today's trades:

The 5 min chart shows what I was looking at at the start of the day (Vertical red line for me). Price was running up to a key resistance level at 1.3690. When it hit that I looked for a short, but ended up chasing the market. Moving down onto the M1 chart, the two red lines show that trade: bottom line is the entry at 1.3673, top line is the exit at 1.3692.

Verdict: Got in too early - I sold at support and got stopped out. Should have let it confirm the downward move by dropping below the wick of the long candle a few minutes back - which incidentally found support at a pivot level. I should have heeded this level and looked for a break.

Moving up to the 2 blue lines for the second trade, the market carried on past my stop and blew out the resistance level at 1.3690. At this point, I let it move a little and jumped in at 1.3698 (lower blue line). Stop was placed just below the morning's short entry at around 1.3673. My exit (upper blue line) at 1.3726 was actually slightly bungled in that I was trying to set a trailing stop loss to lock in some pips, and forgot that I should increase it by a factor of 10 with this broker. So I set it to 2.5 pips and got stopped out for a decent profit. Verdict: Good entry, very lucky exit.

Following on from there, I tried to get back in because of my bungled exit, so I waited for the market to drop. I then drew fib lines for that upmove from 1.3670's and the 50% line came in at 1.3700. Hence I got back in Jacko style as we started rising from there, (Yellow lines). I entered around 1.3708, and watched the market range quite a few times and hence decided to exit at 1.3723 after the second failed attempt the previous high. Stop was just below the 61.8% fib. at 1.3695.

Those three trades got me net positive 25 pips for the day, so time to stop. I don't trade Friday afternoon anyway - too rangy. Plus I wanna be flat by the time NFP is announced.

Verdict: I'm clearly still learning the nuances of this platform, and am a bit excitable to enter trades. That bungled exit probably allowed me to bank more pips than I would have normally - although I probably would have exited at 1.3723 after the third attempt at the highs anyway. It also allowed me to get back in the market for that extra 15 pips owing to the fact that I was p1$$ed off at b*ggering up my exit.

So a hasty short entry that lost me pips and deserved a smack on the wrist. However, I could not have gone long from there because we were below key resistance. But then I shorted into support.....
A lucky exit that bagged me some pips and allowed me a re-entry for a quick extra 15 I think the Fib re-entry was probably my best trade - decent R:R since the stop was only about 10 pips below and I should have expected the price to re-test the high.

 

[Gumping]

Thanks guys!

 

[sw0rdfish]

How about try trading on the 15min interval range? Its less noisy and you get a better picture where the market stands after 15min. Just a suggestion.

 

[Gumping]

How about try trading on the 15min interval range? Its less noisy and you get a better picture where the market stands after 15min. Just a suggestion.

Thanks man. It's worth a look. The idea behind trading M1 is that I can get my target hit within a few hours and move on with other things. It also tells me whether I'm moving in the right direction, since I can collect data more quickly.
As my journal says, I'm working on several trading ideas. The rest are al on longer TF's. Maybe I'll talk about them from time to time but none of them have done as well as this one so far.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

i like the "jacko style" re-entry,
i do it constantly but it amazes me how many people get stopped out once and forget the reasons they got into the trade in the first place and simply abandon it - Sod's Law means the trade will take off in the required direction, without the punter's money riding on it !

 

[Gumping]

i like the "jacko style" re-entry,
i do it constantly but it amazes me how many people get stopped out once and forget the reasons they got into the trade in the first place and simply abandon it - Sod's Law means the trade will take off in the required direction, without the punter's money riding on it !

Indeed - it can and has! That re-entry, I hate to say it, was a bit of an ad-lib based on the untimely exit. However, I do trade like that up at H4 and have made money doing it in the past. I've sat many times and watched after being stopped out, noting that simply putting my stop offside of the 61.8% Fib protects from all but the strongest retracements.

 

[fibonelli]

Good luck mate!

 

[neil]

Indeed - it can and has! That re-entry, I hate to say it, was a bit of an ad-lib based on the untimely exit. However, I do trade like that up at H4 and have made money doing it in the past. I've sat many times and watched after being stopped out, noting that simply putting my stop offside of the 61.8% Fib protects from all but the strongest retracements.

stop offside of the 61.8% Fib ?

 

[Gumping]

stop offside of the 61.8% Fib ?

The opposite side of it compared to the price. In the case with that trade, below the 61.8% Fib by a couple of pips.

This is taken from M1 EUR/USD as of a few minutes ago. Clearly in a downtrend, the retracement went 1 pip past the 61.8% Fib. Hence in this case, a stop 2 pips (+2 for spread = 4) above the 61.8% Fib would have kept us in this downtrend. I've been stopped out by this sort of action in the past and then put the fibs up and kicked myself. But then eyeball the chart off to the left and it's pretty plain to see that the last retracement would have gone waaay beyond it....doesn't work all the time!
It's simpler than I made it sound....sorry for the confusion!

 

[Gumping]

Good luck mate!

Thanks Fibonelli

 

[arabianights]

Are you trading off the chart or the price action? If the latter then as others have said it may be easier to move to longer time frames...

Another point... You say you'll stop after twenty pips profit... Maybe it might be better to stop after twenty pips loss and keep on going making money on a good profitable day? Just a thought.

 

[Gumping]

Are you trading off the chart or the price action? If the latter then as others have said it may be easier to move to longer time frames...

Another point... You say you'll stop after twenty pips profit... Maybe it might be better to stop after twenty pips loss and keep on going making money on a good profitable day? Just a thought.

Cheers Dave

I haven't had a good think about the profit idea yet. I've always managed to recoup the losses pretty quickly. I haven't set a limit for losses and I probably should - I could imagine having a stinker of a day and chasing the market around in circles. The idea is just to get out quickly because this still requires alot of concentration on my part and I want to be fresh on every trade.
And yes I'm looking at price action. If the noise starts whipping me around too much I'll move up a few TFs. Otherwise I'll stick to M1 where I can collect alot of info quickly.

Regards

And I should also mention:

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL! :clover:

 

[c_c405]

+20 pips -20 pips = minute chart - then +100 -200 = 15 minute

You could increase your performance by looking at longer TF's and drilling down to time your entry

is the minute chart clearly defining price action / direction for you? not likely i would suspect

start with the 4 hour and drill down to 1 minute then wait and wait some more. Your trades could be netting you a lot more than 15 pips

just a thought

 

[Gumping]

You could increase your performance by looking at longer TF's and drilling down to time your entry

is the minute chart clearly defining price action / direction for you? not likely i would suspect

start with the 4 hour and drill down to 1 minute then wait and wait some more. Your trades could be netting you a lot more than 15 pips

just a thought

Thanks man

I always have the M5 and M1 charts up, and do tend to go up to M15 to pick up trendlines and S/R levels and such. I'm aware of what goes on at higher levels but I must admit it doesn't come into my decision-making processes that much.

 

[MrGecko]

Best of luck mate...

... I will echo Arabians points; if you are going to be trading full time (as in sat at the desk and taking in all you see) then I would be advise against very small timeframes (unless your scalping from the orderbook etc...) - do not fall for the illusion that smaller timeframes will yield more opportunities and make up the extra profits you need... try using hourly+ bars and watching them form, you might find an equal number of better quality trades.

Also, it makes no sense to have a fixed profit target. Have a loss limit, whereby if you hit this then something is not quite right, or you are frustrated / irritated / risk overtrading... then go and clean up your accounts / whatever...

.. Of course, if you are absolutely raking it in, it makes no sense to stop*! When your "edge" is working, keep going. When is isn't, then stop!

* in these circumstances I set "watermark stops", so If I lose XX from my maximum then I stop.

Again, I will emphasise what I think is an important point: Do not be under the impression that smaller timeframes will result in more trades. It is wholly possible to make 15m duration trades off hourly charts, and there is a case that they are "better" trades than the ones off 15m charts themselves*. Alot to be said for watching them form.

If you find yourself bores out of your skull, there is usually someone knocking about here Chatzy - For a quick shag dial 01312281211 - but be warned, it is basically a "locker room" for when the real trading is on the back burner (as I think you can already tell). I can guarantee, however, that there are some "proper" / "professional" (lol) / "locals" / "own account" / "full time" traders there, who, when things are going against you and the sh!t has hit the fan, will laugh, take the p1ss, generally throw abuse at you, and move onto to far more important matters (like if bald women can be sexy).

* A rather random piece of info, but to illustrate the point: if you think you have seen the end of a retracement (or consolidation / whatever), and you are expecting to see a continuation of the original trend (whatever), the oft quoted saying "higher highs and higher lows" (or other) can be pretty darn useful on "serious" timeframes.

 

[c_c405]

take a look at EUR/USD or any other

Thanks man

I always have the M5 and M1 charts up, and do tend to go up to M15 to pick up trendlines and S/R levels and such. I'm aware of what goes on at higher levels but I must admit it doesn't come into my decision-making processes that much.

15 M charts do not define trends at all dude daily charts will give a clearer picture take a look at this one for a moment

5 charts of the same pair at the same time - Here is what they look like

[/IMG]
That looks like a downtrend doesn't it?

[/IMG]
How does this one look? Still down?

[/IMG]
How bout this one?

[/IMG]
and this one?

[/IMG]

Is this one still down like the 1 minute chart? Hardly! all techs considered it is looking like a test of resitance to the upside after a huge fall several months ago.

Hope this helps you make more pips - Some of my trades net over 1000 pips by simply using the multi time frames and identifying where price is Right NOW compared to where it can go and has gone. by looking at these time frames you can see how stops on a 1 minute chart set at 20 pips or so are completely useless and more dangerous than patience and wider stops

Anyway just hope I can help you catch more pips if it helps great - If not then tell me to buzz off

Check my thread with the new broker I'm trying out
real money - standard lots - 5000 deposit

Cheers

 

[Gumping]

Thanks for all the comments guys Much appreciated.

Yesterday was a pretty sh1te day all told. I was taking into consideration the idea about moving up to M15 TF. I ended up doing something that was neither M1 or M15, by attempting to trade the M15 using M1 entries and stops. I picked the market direction (short) but got stopped out when really trading off of M15 with a swing stop I should still be in the trade and a couple of 100 pips to the good. In the end I stopped for the day.
Today was a different animal. I got in short (Red line) this morning on the M1, and price immediately spiked down and immediately took off long, stopping me out.

Then I waited for the retracement to the 50% Fib on the M15 and entered in just below a level (Blue line) that price was clustering around on M1. Other than that fact, the trade was managed wholly from M15. Lot size and stops were adjusted for the higher TF. Stop went above a swing high above the 61.8% Fib.
I had to go out and hence set a 50 pip trailing stop loss on the trade to lock in some pips and ended up getting stopped out at 1.3239 for a 34 pip profit. Ideally, I should have left the stop where it was and trailed it as new swing highs started to form. But I had some jobs to do.

Other than that, I would say that I probably should have completely ignored M1 and entered on the breakout of the Fib - that would have netted me plenty more pips. I should also maybe look at profit target ideas - I have no idea what I'd do with these trades if they built up a significant profit. The 50 pips SL locked in some profits and was good since I had to be away. Is trailing the way forward, or should I set a target? Should I split the position and TP on half and trail the other?

I think this M15 TF is a bit more sedate and I did feel alot more comfortable trading it than M1. So I reckon I'll be looking at it in more detail from now on. Thanks for the pointers guys

Another note: the jobs I had to do reflect the fact that I'm going on holiday on Friday. I'll be gone for 2 weeks. I might try something tomorrow but I'm not sure.
So thanks for the comments, and if I don't get on-line between now and Fri, enjoy the Blighty winter; I'm off to Gambia