arabianights
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Oh, wait a minute...
Sincerely, Happy Person
Sincerely, Happy Person
Good thing there were no stops on short sterling today
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Martinghoul
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Hope you didn't get spanked, Cap'n Arab ...
...
arabianights
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quite the opposite Seaman Staines
arabianights
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sadly most of it was front month :'(
for my next trick I will pick a high on the gilt
for my next trick I will pick a high on the gilt
Martinghoul
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Argh, matey, you're a superstar!
brucemole
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what do you make of the SS move today lads? Massive sell off after the announcement - recovers all the way and then some.
Long the reds and short the greens is my gut feeling. Can't see much happening in the whites.
What a move on the gilts, 3 big figures, don' think i've seen that before, people must have been expecting the QE to target front end?
Long the reds and short the greens is my gut feeling. Can't see much happening in the whites.
What a move on the gilts, 3 big figures, don' think i've seen that before, people must have been expecting the QE to target front end?
Martinghoul
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Yep, for sure, the 'medium, long-term' thing was quite unexpected. Not sure I like your reds/greens steepener. What's the rationale? You think we see some sort of recovery this quickly?
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arabianights
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when will they end QE? that's gotta be the key thing behind any steepners...
arabianights
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I'm going for 20% inflation in two year's time
But if you want to put that trade on then today isn't the day to be doing it imo
But if you want to put that trade on then today isn't the day to be doing it imo
arabianights
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the longer the duration the more blatant the bubble... but then if BOE are buying them and pension funds/insurance companies are forced to... what do you do
I'm still targetting a gilt market crash somewhere around summer
I'm still targetting a gilt market crash somewhere around summer
Martinghoul
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Yep, the new 30y gilt auction yesterday was a rude awakening with a 6.5bp tail. However, as the Cap'n says there's all sorts of arm-twisting that the FSA and the DWP can do. Already have been doing that, so I wouldn't try to fight them. Reds/greens is a good macro trade if you believe in a comeback... I myself am somewhat skeptical.the longer the duration the more blatant the bubble... but then if BOE are buying them and pension funds/insurance companies are forced to... what do you do
I'm still targetting a gilt market crash somewhere around summer
arabianights
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I don't believe in a comeback, I believe in very high inflation... in fact it's blatant the plan is to inflate our way out of debt... so only question is whether LIBOR would be held artficially low by the likes of the People's Bank of Scotland (who I believe there are protests outside today)... I can't see how it could.
But why put that trade on now? You'll get a better price tomorrow I'd wager!
Martinghoul
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Aye-aye, Cap'n. Let's believe in high inflation together, but while we do that, let's agree that we don't believe in an independent Central Bank anymore. Which means to me that if the economy doesn't recover, rates are not going anywhere, inflation or no inflation. If you wanna bet on inflation, buy linkers, they're a lot cheaper today.
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