Gold's Inevitable Declines (Elliott wave analysis dating back to 1932)

[afarghaly9]

PART I

PART II

Watch me take you through the details and tips of accurate elliott wave analysis. Gold has either found a top or is in the process of. VERY IMORTANT we may see gold at 250$

My Final least probable unrealistic bullish alternate count is:

Happy Trading
Ahmed Farghaly

 

[GFLDN]

could it be argued that if gold is inversely related to the dollar, and with the dollars precarious situation causing the record highs for gold, should the dollar collapse altogether, then gold would spike even higher before coming back down once a 'new dollar' or global reserve currency had been established?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

They would not be stupid enough to collapse the dollar. What will they use for fighting wars with, Chinese Yuan ?

 

[GFLDN]

but now that the FED owns the highest percentage of US debt having overtaken China and Japan in the past 6 months, if the dollar were to collapse, the FED would be able to dominate restructuring negotiations with itself non? ;p

 

[BeginnerJoe]

If it were to collapse, the FED can negotiate with the hand gun wielding street rioters directly, man to man.

 

[GFLDN]

true, but that is a separate issue, non? perhaps explains the rise of the militant policeman

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Well, ransquawk said gold rose to new high today. So the end is not nigh.

 

[GFLDN]

agreed, not for a while yet, theres plenty more juice to squeeze out of the lemon yet!!!

 

[anley]

Many have tried to call the top in Gold over the last 5 years. All so far have failed.

Probabilities suggest this top call will also fail.

Anyway, who said trying to predict the markets leads to making money? For most it doesn't which means making money is as far from predicting as you can get.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Gold will move down on fundamentals once it's clear the hyper inflation and daylight robbery is less aggressive.

 

[nunrgguy]

It won't be time to short until there's momentum short. Why do people try pick tops and short a market that isn't short yet?

Or is this more for hold and hope investors not knowing when to get out? Tip: see that big, fast move up: SELL

 

[Black Swan]

Love the rumour/conspiracy that DSK was set up with the chamber maid 'cos he knew the USA had no gold reserves in Fort Knox, it's all gone, sold/stolen by the Bush Cheny Paulson axis of evil..

 

[TheBramble]

While total global production of Gold has remained fairly static, the balance between those countries mining it has seen their individual fortunes (LOL) change fairly radically over the last few years.

China not only produces more of the yellow stuff than any other single country, it is also the only country to be increasing its production.

Australia and USA have declined relatively sharply in production and Canada has been by far the most impacted in massively diminished production.

Russia has stayed fairly stable considering infrastructure and other issues relating to the production of anything there.

While going to textbook definitions of relationship of Gold to the Dollar will yield a cosy answer, it’s not necessarily the reality.

If you’re mining around 12% of the base global supply and increasing that on an annual basis (as is China) that’s going to have a rather direct impact on your balance of trade and currency strength.

If you’re inflating through QE around 12% and decreasing your production of gold (as is USA) that’s also going to have a direct impact, of a different kind.

Both of these factors will come out in the wash of course.

 

[dmt257]

Everything I have encountered about Elliott Wave analysis suggests it works brilliantly......retrospectively of course.

 

[Pat494]

I confidently predict GOLD will march on indefinetly into the sunset rising and rising until they find an asteroid of solid gold ( except for the usual pullbacks of course )

 

[anley]

Gold will move down on fundamentals once it's clear the hyper inflation and daylight robbery is less aggressive.

Always remember, Gold is a lousy hedge against inflation. The fact that so many people think it is, is a reflection of if many people say so it must be true.

Case in point is this - Look at how much inflation the world has had since 1980? A lot. But Gold is far far cheaper today than it was in 1980, even at the top of around $850. If you'd invested in Gold in 1980 you got hit with a double whammy of losses, gold lower and inflation higher. You'd probably have lost about 70% of your purchasing power.

Also, from a historical perspective Gold was around $140 in 1880 (not a typo) but 50 years later it was around $30. Again, some hedge against inflation...

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Always remember, Gold is a lousy hedge against inflation. The fact that so many people think it is, is a reflection of if many people say so it must be true.

Case in point is this - Look at how much inflation the world has had since 1980? A lot. But Gold is far far cheaper today than it was in 1980, even at the top of around $850. If you'd invested in Gold in 1980 you got hit with a double whammy of losses, gold lower and inflation higher. You'd probably have lost about 70% of your purchasing power.

Also, from a historical perspective Gold was around $140 in 1880 (not a typo) but 50 years later it was around $30. Again, some hedge against inflation...

Gold is used by people as a hedge against currency devaluation at the moment, at least that's the rationale they have been fed. Whether they are correct to do that is beside the point. Nevertheless, once the the threat of devaluation recedes, gold will decline. Even if the herd is wrong, its power is enormous, if you don't go along for the ride, you would get stampeded as the herd exits the market you think is the right place to be. Then you are left holding a loss hoping the herd would come back soon. Mass psychology is hugely important. Like it or not, you have to deal with it. Technical analysis is pretty useless in this kind of situations because the herd doesn't care how terrible the chart is looking. The herd has a lot more energy than you have money to stay solvent should you decide to go against it.

 

[brettus]

They would not be stupid enough to collapse the dollar. What will they use for fighting wars with, Chinese Yuan ?

collapsing the dollar is fighting the war with chinese yuan.

 

[Pat494]

collapsing the dollar is fighting the war with chinese yuan.

They lose every war they start

Bankrupted themselves getting revenge over a pin-prick attack by 24 extremists

Should have stuck to Hollywood and business - something they know something about imho

 

[BeginnerJoe]

collapsing the dollar is fighting the war with chinese yuan.

The chinese have only a third of their money in dollars. If the dollar collapses, I dare say they can afford the loss. It would be a mistake to think the chinese are playing the same game as the americans or have the same world view. For all we know a dollar collapse might be good for the chinese with their inscrutable plans. The biggest casualty will be joe blows on the american streets because they get robbed blind in broad daylight, as will most of us.