Gold poised to break out or breakdown soon

[Tradesurfer]

Looking at a weekly chart of gold (using the ETF symbol:GLD), we can see that Gold is about to come to a major decision point. Will it wind up being a triple top or a breakout of the very deep triangle? Price may be starting to compress.
A couple of key points to consider.

1- If it breaks out of the triangle and above the old 1000.44 high, based upon calculating a triangle breakout target that puts the move to potentially 1200 or so. Traders looking at a potential long position might wait for that breakout to buy and then place their stop below what was old resistance but would now be support.

2- Those looking at a short sale might look to see if price stalls at the old highs and retraces back through the lower triangle line or violates that bottom triangle uptrending line. Should that happen some traders may look to short Gold or the ETF traded on the US market symbol:GLD and place their stops a little above the old highs to protect themselves.

I have attached a weekly chart (each price bar is 1 week) to help look at Gold from a longer term view.
So where will gold go? Should be decision time shortly.
Off course there are no sure things and as an earlier post mentioned technicians are trying to play the probabilities so its crucial to keep losses small.
Note- since this is the ETF chart and not Gold itself, a price of 1000 in gold would be 100 for the etf.
Pay attention to the distance between any entry and exit as this will be your trade risk and you can decide on position sizing based upon that very distance.

Thoughts?

 

[bergy]

Im currently short on gold at the moment. It has been sideways for the last few days. Possibly break up or down by looking at the last couple of days candles.

 

[awakde]

I see a head and shoulders pattern here with your top trend line being the neckline. If my assumption is correct then we might see GLD go to 99 + (99 - 66) = 99 + 33 = 132 or at least 99 + (.5 * 33) = 115.5
Still a rookie so what do I know.

 

[Tradesurfer]

No, could be an upside down head and shoulders. Although typically for a reversal the trend would have been down first and then a reversal of price to the upside and vice versa. But yeah-another way to look at it and certainly put in a higher low with that shoulder.

but kinda the say way of thinking on targets- your distance between the head and the neckline or whether you do it as distance between the bottom and top of the open side of the triangle and then draw that distance up from a potential breakout- kinda the same thing.

Gold today i think move 1 point last time i checked so really has been compressing price wise.

I'll probably take a trade but I'll let the market tell me whether the long or short side.

 

[Tradesurfer]

Looks as if GLD or actual Gold Contract may be about to test that uptrend line of the weekly triangle. If it breaks below $90 on GLD (US Market ETF) could be a short. Or- still could hold and bounce. Stay tuned.