General Motors Trade Opened

ducati998

Experienced member
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Trade opened.
Entry Price .................$25.18
Stoploss.....................No Stoploss
Exit Criteria.................@ fair value or after 2yrs irrespective of price
Position Size...............1000 shares

Expectations.
This is obviously a value based trade. I believe that the share price is undervalued, and will at some point, see a return to a fair value.

I shall receive an 8% yield on the dividend, assuming that it is maintained.



Associated Press
GM Posts $1.1B 1Q Loss on Costs, Charges
Tuesday April 19, 4:57 pm ET
By John Porretto, AP Auto Writer
General Motors Reports $1.1 Billion First-Quarter Loss on Weak Response to New Models, Charges


DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. reported its deepest quarterly loss in more than a decade -- $1.1 billion -- as rising health care costs and lackluster response to some new models hammered its North American business. With health costs not getting any cheaper and Asian automakers grabbing more of the market, the outlook for the world's largest automaker remains bleak.



The January-March loss amounted to $1.95 per share, compared with earnings of $1.3 billion, or $2.25 a share, in the year-ago quarter, when the company benefited handsomely from its finance arm and improved business in Asia.

It marked Detroit-based GM's steepest quarterly deficit since the first quarter of 1992, when it reported a $21 billion loss primarily because of changes in accounting procedures for retiree health care costs.

Revenue fell 4.3 percent to $45.8 billion from $47.8 billion a year ago.

"We expected a difficult quarter," GM chief financial officer John Devine said in a conference call with investors and automotive journalists. "Obviously, that's what we saw."

GM shares fell 10 cents to close at $26.09 on the New York Stock Exchange after falling as low as $24.67 earlier in the day. In recent weeks, GM shares have traded at lows not seen in more than a decade.

The company behind brands such as Chevrolet, Saturn and Hummer simply hasn't had the response to a slew of new products it expected. GM led the industry with 29 U.S. vehicle introductions in 2004 and plans to follow that with 17 this year.

On top of lukewarm car demand and rising medical costs, GM also battled intense pricing competition in the first quarter. Revenue per vehicle in North America fell to $18,396 from $19,084 a year ago, in part because of reduced pricing on some vehicles.

Meanwhile, Asian automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. have posted impressive sales gains. The growth, analysts say, can be attributed in part to their reputations for quality as well as new products -- such as Toyota's Scion brand that targets younger buyers and the Nissan Titan, that company's first entry in the full-size pickup category.

Excluding special charges, GM said first-quarter earnings amounted to a loss of $839 million, or $1.48 a share, compared with net income of $1.2 billion, or $2.12 a share, in the first quarter of 2004.

The latest result was in line with Wall Street expectations for a loss of $1.49 per share, according to Thomson Financial.

GM's special items included charges for restructuring in Europe, where it trimmed its payroll by nearly 6,000 in the first quarter, and U.S. salaried attrition programs. Devine said the company lowered its U.S. salaried headcount by 2,800 in the first quarter.

GM said its cash, marketable securities and available assets from an employees' health care trust fund fell from $23.3 billion on Dec. 31 to $19.8 billion on March 31, excluding financing and insurance operations. The decline reflects lower vehicle production, restructuring costs and a $2 billion settlement with Fiat SpA to resolve a contract dispute.

GM warned investors in March its first-quarter earnings would be below previous estimates of break-even or better. It has said it expects income of $1 to $2 per share for the full year, down from a previous guidance of $4 to $5.

On Tuesday, the company declined to reaffirm its March guidance or offer any new forecast for the year. It cited "the uncertainty affecting key elements of our financial forecast, such as resolution of the health-care cost crisis."

GM has said U.S. health care costs continue to grow at an excessive rate and hamper profitability. GM spent $5.2 billion last year to cover 1.1 million salaried and hourly employees, retirees and family members. GM has said the amount could grow to $5.8 billion this year.

The United Auto Workers union said last week it had no intention of reopening its labor contract to negotiate lower medical expenses but would do what it could within the agreement to help GM lower costs.

Merrill Lynch analyst John Casesa said GM likely is "ratcheting-up pressure on the UAW to open the current contract," which expires in 2007. "Our view is that concessions are highly unlikely before 2007, and that today's statement underscores that restructuring GM's North American operations will be a long, arduous process," Casesa said in a research note.

The CFO Devine declined comment on any negotiations with the UAW.

Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings all have cut GM's debt rating to one notch above junk status because of declining market share, increased competition and other reasons. Further downgrades could significantly increase GM's borrowing costs, though none of the agencies acted after GM's report Tuesday.

An S&P spokesman said GM's first-quarter results were in line with the agency's expectations.

GM sales in the United States, its largest and most competitive market, sank 4 percent for the first three months of 2005 from a year ago. Its U.S. market share slipped to 25.6 percent from roughly 27 percent, according research firm to Autodata Corp.

In the past year or so, GM has focused on its car lineup, which generates lower profits than trucks and sport utility vehicles. Yet car sales fell 8 percent for the first three months of 2005 from a year ago.

Sales of some large trucks and sport utility vehicles also are down, hurt in part by rising gas prices, though GM in March reported its best month for full-size pickups since 1978.

The $1.3 billion loss from GM's global automotive business compared with earnings of $561 million in the year-ago quarter. In North America, GM said it lost $1.3 billion versus a profit of $401 million in the first quarter of 2004.

The company said its market share in North America was 25.2 percent in the first quarter, down from 26.3 percent a year ago.

GM's GMAC finance arm, which has contributed heavily to profits in recent quarters, earned $728 million in the quarter, down from $764 million in the year-ago quarter. The last time GM's automotive earnings outpaced those at GMAC was in the fourth quarter of 2002.

GM Europe posted a loss of $103 million in the first quarter, an improvement from a loss of $116 million a year ago. GM Asia Pacific earned $60 million in the first quarter, compared with earnings of $275 million in the year-ago quarter.

GM Latin America/Africa/Middle East reported earnings of $46 million in the first quarter, up from $1 million in the first quarter of 2004.

Ford Motor Co., GM's crosstown rival, also has been hurt by high health care and materials costs and earlier this month lowered its profit forecast for 2005. Ford is expected to announce further production cuts when it releases first-quarter earnings results Wednesday.

AP Auto Writer Dee-Ann Durbin contributed to this report.

General Motors Corp


cheers d998
 
Ownership Activity ............................... # of Holders ..................................... Shares
Total Positions........................................... 536 ...........................................439,319,072
New Positions........................................... 66 ...................................................7,992,318
Soldout Positions ..................................... 61.................................................. -3,134,031
Net Position Change .............................. -67 ..................................................8,886,820
Buyers ...................................................... 235 ................................................ 39,653,024
Sellers ......................................................302.............................................. -30,766,202


Overall, this was not news to the market.
I would imagine the next few quarters will be rough, but, as this is a very cyclical stock, that is perfectly normal and to be expected.

cheers d998
 
Will now put this position to work. As of tomorrow, when the market opens.
Will sell CALL options expiring Friday December 16'th.
Will have a look at the prices, but will most likely be for $27.50, or $30.00

The "Premium" will add to the overall return, when eventually the position is closed.
Will continue to sell premium, as long as......1 Call Price remains above purchase price, 2 Stock not called away, as obviously position will then be closed.

cheers d998
 
Sold Call Options over a range of prices from $27.50 , $30.00, $32.50
With a variety of expiries, looking to maximise return.
cheers d998
 
Indexes
Dow.......................................................... 10,012.36........................... -115.05
Nasdaq...................................................... 1,913.76............................. -18.60
S&P............................................................. 1,137.50............................. -15.28
10-Yr Note....................................................... 98.50
Yield: .........................................................................................................+0.16
.................................................................................................................................................4.180%

Now just as a comparison, GM, if it maintains the current $2 dividend yields 8% at my purchase price as compared to the 10yr Note, which is considered risk free return. Of course it is no such thing unless you hold to maturity, and even so bad inflation will kill the returns.

GM, is now really 2 businesses.
It makes and sells cars.........very problematic, fashion, stiff competition etc.
And, like a division of GE, GM is now and has been for a while, a Finance business.

Its major problems are pension and health obligations.
Any analysis, would need to assess these liabilities.

cheers d998
 
By brave, do you really mean, stupid?
Remember this is not a daytrader strategy, it is a longer term play.
It is really a trade based on Capitalistion.

Financial Condition ........................... Company ..................... Industry ...................... S&P 500
Debt/Equity Ratio .....................................10.83 .............................2.78 ..............................1.20
Current Ratio............................................... 3.0 ................................1.9................................. 1.5
Quick Ratio ...................................................2.5 ................................1.5 ..................................1.1
Interest Coverage......................................... 1.2 ................................2.7 ..................................3.5
Leverage Ratio .............................................17.3............................... 6.6 ..................................5.9
Book Value/Share .......................................49.06........................... 21.47........................... 12.60

Look at the leverage available on the common. A small increase in profitability has an enormous effect on per share earnings, and thus an effect on share price.

All the debt is long term bonded debt, thus no short term bank borrowing which is always dangerous. Agreed, rating has dropped to Junk, or close to it, which will raise WACC, but, that can always be re-rated upwards again.


Investment Returns % .................................... Company ..............Industry ............. S&P 500
Return On Equity .....................................................10.1 .......................12.4 ......................14.4
Return On Assets .....................................................0.6 .........................1.9 ..........................2.4
Return On Capital .....................................................0.9.......................... 3.3......................... 6.5
Return On Equity (5-Year Avg.).............................. 12.2 .........................8.0 .......................11.9
Return On Assets (5-Year Avg.)............................... 0.7......................... 1.2 ..........................2.0
Return On Capital (5-Year Avg.)............................... 1.0 .........................2.2 ..........................5.5

This is amply bourne out by the contrast in ROC & ROE.
The common, will always benefit through the high leverage.

The really major problem areas are Pension liabilities, and Worker health care.
An increase in mortality rates would work wonders on the bottom line.
Looking at the mean ages of retired workers, and length of retirement, a large segment would appear to be approaching that danger zone.

In addition, I will offset a certain amount of risk by selling premium.
cheers d998
 
The Street.com
GM's pumped-up lending arm surprises many


By Peter Eavis 4/21/2005

General Motors' lending business is the only thing keeping America's largest automaker from falling into the abyss. So it's unnerving to see this finance arm, called GMAC, report low-quality first-quarter earnings.

In the first quarter, GMAC -- short for General Motors Acceptance Corp. -- earned $729 million, while GM's auto business lost $1.83 billion. On a consolidated basis, then, GM lost $1.1 billion, or $1.95 per share.

The company had warned investors that the loss was coming, but not until mid-March. Up to that time, it was telling investors to expect earnings of $4-$5 per share in 2005. Now the company says it expects to make just $1-$2 per share.

The reduction in earnings guidance, along with fears that rating agencies will downgrade GM's debt to junk and news that GM's unions aren't likely to bow to cost-cutting measures, has crushed GM's stock. It closed down a dime at $26.09 Tuesday. That's nearly 50% below the stock's 52-week high.

Sticky wicket
To assess just how dangerous a slowdown at GMAC would be, one must understand the gamble that GM made after the 9/11 attacks. Automakers have a notoriously sticky cost base, which means any slowdown in sales can tip a carmaker into a loss very easily, as can be seen with the recent reductions in earnings forecasts.



GM (GM, news, msgs) feared the terrorist attacks would reduce demand for car purchases, so it had GMAC unleash a tidal wave of cheap credit to motivate people to buy cars. Car sales did respond, and GMAC also made money from its large mortgage operations during the easy-money boom that took over the entire U.S. financial sector.

However, this strategy always threatened to come undone if interest rates rose or if demand for GM's products dropped off, due to saturation or competition. Surely enough, these factors are hurting GM now, forcing the company's managers to try a deep restructuring.

However, a full-blown crisis could occur if GMAC started to show real signs of stress. Clearly, anyone looking at GM's stock simply has to watch GMAC for any signs of weakness. And the unit's first-quarter results, as well as management comments, do raise some uncomfortable questions. The big fear is that GMAC used hard-to-repeat gains to boost earnings at its mortgage operations.




GM spokeswoman Toni Simonetti says that GMAC's mortgage earnings were not overly dependent on one-time gains: "GMAC's performance is quite extraordinary, given the more difficult environment in which it operates."

There was a big, but expected, drop in earnings from GMAC's auto-financing and leasing division. Net income there in the first quarter fell to $248 million from $442 million in the year-earlier period.

Despite this drop, GM's auto sales were far more dependent on GMAC financing. In the first quarter, 54% of retail sales were funded by GMAC, compared with 41% in the year-earlier period. That shows that if GM had to cut back on auto financing due to fears over leverage, auto sales would drop off sharply.

Also scary was the large jump in the proportion of retail leases. These jumped to 20% of retail sales in the first quarter, compared with 14% in the year-earlier period. That 20% figure is well above 2004 levels and thus suggests that leasing is back as a way to shift units at GM. If so, GMAC may once again become exposed to the risk that the value of leased autos will be lower than predicted when the cars are returned.

At $95 million, GMAC's insurance earnings were marginally up from the first-quarter 2004 figure of $91 million.

Great leap forward?
However, it was the mortgage operations that raised most eyebrows. Bizarrely, mortgage earnings soared 67% to $385 million in the first quarter from $231 million in the year-ago period.

Given that there's been a slight cooling in the mortgage market over the past 12 months, the giant leap in earnings had analysts looking for reasons other than GM's explanation, which was that it made more mortgage loans and picked up market share.

GMAC observers wondered whether any outsized gains took place to produce the blowout number. When asked on the earnings conference call April 19 to what extent gains from selling mortgages contributed to the mortgage unit's performance, GMAC CFO Sanjiv Khattri said: "I don't think I want to disclose the number," but did add that "It was a very nice piece of change."

Khattri also acknowledged that mortgage earnings had benefited from a write-up in the value of so-called mortgage-servicing rights, which are balance sheet items that represent the expected earnings from administering payments on mortgages.

The MSRs tend to get marked up when interest rates rise. However, no number for GMAC's first-quarter MSR gain was given out. And if there was a big jump in the value of these in the first quarter, it could easily be reversed this quarter, as interest rates have fallen.

GMAC's overall earnings took a big dent in the first quarter from a rise in interest costs, which were $3 billion in the first quarter vs. $2.2 billion in the year-earlier period.

GM's Simonetti says that GMAC has made great strides in protecting itself against an increase in interest rates and that should protect the unit against any further rises in rates.
 
GEN MOTORS (NYSE:GM) Delayed quote data

After Hours (RT-ECN): 26.05 0.04 (0.15%)

Last Trade: 26.01
Trade Time: 4:02PM ET
Change: 0.19 (0.74%)
Prev Close: 25.82
Open: 26.14
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 25.89

Day's Range: 25.59 - 26.34
52wk Range: 24.67 - 50.04
Volume: 11,947,500
Avg Vol (3m): 10,995,772
Market Cap: 14.68B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): 0.00
Div & Yield: 2.00 (7.75%)


Sitting tight.
As this is a very CYCLICAL stock, there could be much pain to come.
Offset as much risk as possible, in $$ terms, while it is possible to do so via the selling of Options

cheers d998
 
What price do/will you consider fair value and/or a fair return on your investment?

If the US economy were to show distinct signs of falling into a recession would you consider closing the position on the basis that auto manufacturers and finance businesses will be affected the most?
 
Hi Ducati
Slighty off track, (no pun intended) is there nz brokers? as i move down there later this year(not had time to look around). Also just sold my R6 (trading losses i don't feel!)

Millsy
 
mmmm..... not sure to be honest. if it was around $15 I'd be tempted. Basically it's a play on whether you think GM will survive. If it does you'll make good money.
 
Good luck Ducati – decent entry point that you’ve got – Inverse H&S immediate target looks to be at the top of the ‘spike’ – around $28.30..

I appreciate that this is not a day trade, but reckon you should still have a break even stop-loss in now.....

Losing money is not allowed...... ;)

(ps - Ducati...?! - I thought about using the moniker 'Manx Norton'.....)
 

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LION63

What price do/will you consider fair value and/or a fair return on your investment?

As a return on investment, 50% is very satisfactory.
As to fair value, approximately $50.

If the US economy were to show distinct signs of falling into a recession would you consider closing the position on the basis that auto manufacturers and finance businesses will be affected the most?

No.
GM is a very cyclical stock, and the ratio of debt to common is massive. Therefore, if I was to close my trade it would be based on a deterioration in gross revenues, as these sevice interest, pre-tax.

After tax, which is the earnings attributable to the common, the earnings can fluctuate tremendously due to fixed charges.
If Management start writing down receivables, inventory, then the rebound in earnings would be massive. At the moment that looks a distinct possibility as the article alludes, therefore, Q4, or Q1 / 06 would show the massive earnings in the common, and the re-rating via price.

In the mean time, just reduce my risk as much as possible via the selling of premium.



millsy500

Slighty off track, (no pun intended) is there nz brokers? as i move down there later this year(not had time to look around). Also just sold my R6 (trading losses i don't feel!)

Are there NZ Brokers, for I assume trading the US?
Better to use US based Brokers, or if Direct Access, then whatever is the most stable, consistent, and best value. But yes, there are NZ brokers.

R6 sold................not good, bikes are about the only thing down here that are more expensive than in the UK.

nigelpm,

mmmm..... not sure to be honest. if it was around $15 I'd be tempted. Basically it's a play on whether you think GM will survive. If it does you'll make good money.

I'm pretty sure it'll survive.
$15, absolutely, and should it drop to $15, I'd have to have some more.
How low could it go?...........Who knows, but, $25 was a good enough point for me, I can work this position, and get my risk down.


tradesmart,

Losing money is not allowed......

That is the golden rule.
Stoplosses force you to break that golden rule.

cheers d998
 
General Motors Corporation And DOE Sign $88-Million Agreement To Advance Fuel Cell Development
March 30, 2005
General Motors Corporation and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have signed a five-year, $88-million agreement to build a 40-vehicle fuel cell fleet and further develop the technology. Under the program, the Company will spend $44-million to deploy fuel cell vehicle demonstration fleets in Washington D.C., New York, California and Michigan. The DOE will contribute the other half, under an agreement that expires in September 2009.


General Motors Corporation Plans to Cut Salaried Staff-WSJ
March 21, 2005
The Wall Street Journal reported that General Motors Corporation plans to slash its North American white-collar work force, signaling the start of a more aggressive attack on deep structural problems in its core auto business. The salaried-staff cuts, which could be as deep as 28% in certain departments, are a prelude to a the Company's effort to seek health-care concessions from its largest U.S. union, the United Auto Workers, and map out further cuts in its North American operations, people familiar with the situation said last week.
 
Stoplosses force you to break that golden rule.

I reckon that on any trade, day trade or long term position; as soon as it drops into the red you are trading on 'hope' of getting your money back; which makes a mockery of any concept of 'investment'........

The shares could be trading at sub-$5 soon, with no dividend.......

Nevertheless, Good Luck
 
Last edited:
tradesmart,

By the time the market 'confirms' what you suspected, it is TOO LATE. By the time the market passes or fails a 'test', it is too late. To be paid, you must act upon your suspicions before they are manifested.

Now this has been pinched from you obviously. It is precisely this philosophy that underlies "Value investing"

To successfully make money in value investing strategies, you must both quantitatively, and qualitatively analyze the company, the problems, the management, the possible solutions,and alternative methods for protecting the principal of your investment.

Selling of premium via the selling of Options is the obvious, and well known method. There are a couple of others that are not so well known possibly. In any case, I should be able to recover the bulk of my principal over a 12mths period, thus reducing the risk, should, as you say shares drop to $5, and the dividend is suspended.

That to my mind is "Risk" management.
Setting a stoploss is gambling.
What you are telling me by setting a stoploss is.......... Now this is not criticism of yourself, rather of daytrading, and swingtrading in general.

1.....I have no idea regarding the intrinsic value of this company, and I have no idea if I am buying a bargain or a lemon............or a lemon at the right price, that I can extract some value.

2.....I am simply exposing myself to market risk, I do not use market risk to facilitate profit opportunities.

3.......I am looking for fast profit. By implication, fast losses are a fact of life.

4......I only know a limited # of ways to make money in the stock market, viz. chasing momentum, which mandates stoploss useage.

I follow your posts on the "Dow" thread, and actually for a daytrader your analysis and conclusions are very good, especially as daytrading is notoriously hit and miss. I particularly like your calls ahead of time, rather than the want of waiting for the move to have been made, and then claiming XYZ.

Thanks for the "goodluck" sentiment, and while luck is nice, luck should be eliminated from any trading plan ASAP.


FetteredChinos,

an excellent point D, and i agree entirely.

I have followed your postings on the Dow thread, and it is obvious from the lack of emotive posting and flurry of over-excited comment that you have a systematic approach.
Also, from your comments, it would seem that you do not look at charts.

Obviously a "reversion to the mean" man. And I suspect that you do very nicely from a simple concept, and exploitation of herd psychology.

cheers d998
 
GMAC: The Golden Goose
By David Meier
April 22, 2005

In these days of paltry dividend yields -- the S&P 500 throws off just 1.8% these days -- getting almost 8% from a company on the Dow Jones Industrial Average sounds pretty enticing. Which is why many investors are taking a look at General Motors. The company's stock-price plummet has driven the yield up to 7.7%. Many of my Rule Your Retirement subscribers have been asking whether such a juicy yield is worth the risk of investing in GM.

To help answer that question, W.D. Crotty and David Meier take 20 paces and square off as dueling Fools. W.D. thinks GM has run out of gas, while David thinks there's something left in the tank. Read the arguments, consider the rebuttals, then vote. -- Robert Brokamp

In my opinion, General Motors (NYSE: GM) is a marriage between an ugly duckling and a golden goose. The ugly duckling is the car business. Thank goodness for the golden goose, GMAC. It's healthy, profitable, and undervalued. "Undervalued? Preposterous!" you say. "With all that debt, GMAC is in trouble."



Valuation No. 1: P/E ratio
GMAC earned $2.913 million in 2004. Multiply that by the average P/E ratios of the competitors, and GMAC could be valued at $30.6 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. GMAC could earn $2.916 million in 2005 ($729 million times four quarters). So $30.6 billion could be a forward-looking value, too.

Valuation No. 2: P/B ratio
Before you say anything, let me tell you that I am not even thinking of valuing GMAC's book value of $22.4 billion at a P/B ratio of 2.2 from the table above. Those businesses are much more valuable than GMAC, and the market recognizes that. But GMAC does not deserve a P/B ratio of 0.6.

GMAC's assets are real and valuable. Let's say the P/B is 1. That gives a valuation of $22.4 billion to GMAC. So, GMAC could be worth between $22.4 and $30.6 billion by itself. GM's market capitalization is $14.6 billion, a 35%-53% discount to GMAC's value.

We can worry about the dividend cut, but I don't think it's likely with $26.4 billion stuffed in the mattress. We can worry about bankruptcy, but getting the car business closer to breakeven should mitigate those fears. It's not an easy task, but not all of GM's product lines stink. Light trucks and SUVs are still popular and sales in China are growing.

That said, new GM investors could be well-compensated for taking a risk and swapping the milking cow for magic beans and buying GM shares at a 43-year lows. And they can earn 7.5% while waiting for the market to realize GMAC is a golden goose.

Fool contributor David Meier does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Rebuttal
A study estimates pension and other retiree benefits add $1,360 to the cost of every GM vehicle produced, $734 at Ford (NYSE: F), $631 at Chrysler (NYSE: DCX), $107 at Honda (NYSE: HMC), and $190 at Toyota. Yikes, no wonder GM is losing money! In 2003, GM borrowed $13 billion to shore up its pension. Pension assets at the end of 2004 were $67 billion; obligations were $92 billion. Add it up. GM's recent cash outflows, borrowing to fund pensions, and still underfunded pension costs dwarf the $30 billion GMAC is estimated to be worth. GM's stock is a speculation. -- W.D.C.
 
GM: An Accident in the Making
By W.D. Crotty
April 22, 2005

In these days of paltry dividend yields -- the S&P 500 throws off just 1.8% these days -- getting almost 8% from a company on the Dow Jones Industrial Average sounds pretty enticing. Which is why many investors are taking a look at General Motors. The company's stock-price plummet has driven the yield up to 7.7%. Many of my Rule Your Retirement subscribers have been asking whether such a juicy yield is worth the risk of investing in GM.

To help answer that question, W.D. Crotty and David Meier take 20 paces and square off as dueling Fools. W.D. thinks GM has run out of gas, while David thinks there's something left in the tank. Read the arguments, consider the rebuttals, then vote. -- Robert Brokamp

I have several General Motors (NYSE: GM) retirees as friends, and they periodically ask, "Is GM a buy?"

The cute and fast GM analysis is it is losing money and the sharply reduced 2005 earnings outlook has now been withdrawn. It doesn't look good.

The case for GM is that there are 565 million shares outstanding and $341 of revenue per share. Compare that to Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) where there are almost 11 billion shares (20 times the shares) and $3.53 of sales per share (1% of the sales). GM offers tremendous leverage.

The problem at GM is the miniscule 0.4% operating margin -- although it produced $6.40 a share of earnings in 2004. Imagine the earnings if GM reached the 9% margin at Toyota (NYSE: TM).

The case against GM starts with the cash outflow of $7.3 billion in the last two quarters. To turn a phrase, fasten your seat belts because the company is hemorrhaging cash.

While GM is making changes to accelerate product development, branding all models with the GM logo, and advertising why GM vehicles are beneficially different, I don't buy the company line on revenue or costs.

The company says their revenue strategy has "begun to play out," but worldwide vehicle revenue in the first quarter declined 4.3% -- hardly heartening.

Speeches are being made about GM's competitive needs and the (said to be excessive) $5.2 billion in U.S. health-care costs in 2004. Consider this. North American vehicle operations lost $1.6 billion last quarter. Health-care costs could have been zero and operations still would have missed profitability. Margins need to improve but there is much more work needed in all expense categories.

So, what about GM's financial unit, GMAC?

In the first quarter, GMAC's net income fell 4.7% to $729 million. To put that into perspective, the first quarter's $2.0 billion loss for GM's worldwide vehicle operations is 2.7 times the profit at GMAC. When the vehicle operation catches cold, a healthy GMAC isn't going to save the day.

GM is struggling. The stock looks cheap until you consider earnings have crashed. The 7.6% dividend looks tempting but it is certainly a candidate for trimming. Avoid an investment accident and don't buy GM with your retirement dollars until you can see a clear path to profitability.

Fool contributor W.D. Crotty does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned. Click here to see The Motley Fool's disclosure policy.

Rebuttal
There is no clear path to profitability at the car company. So today, a good business, GMAC, is getting punished. But doesn't that make W.D.'s case stronger? I don't think so. I think what it does is drive the stock price down too far. The market is very depressed about the car business (and rightly so). But if you could buy the whole company, junk the car business and keep GMAC, your business would immediately increase in value because capital would stop getting misallocated. -- D.M.
 
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