FTSE 100 overshot today ?

[ukdaytrader]

Looking at FTSE now standing at 4416. Feel this is overvalued and went up with the US Consumer data, even though this has very little to do with the UK.

Sold this at 4420. Anyone have any thoughts on this ?

 

[foredog]

Went up because DOW/S&P went up, after 1330 uk the FTSE is America's slave.

 

[ukdaytrader]

Well I think tomorrow they will wake up and someone will wonder how it got there as the fundamentals don't show it.........hence the sale.

 

[foredog]

Watch the S&P future, if thats holding up then the FTSE won't go far.

 

[ukdaytrader]

S & P is off its peak in terms of cash position as is the futures. I noticed the high correlation between these particularly between 4.30 - 9.00pm. I think all the FTSE stocks trade as ADR's over in the US so this does have some impact on the underlying index, though I think sometimes the index just goes up irrespective of the fundamentals over here, just because the US goes up.

Its amazing one report and they way the news readers are talking like we are out of the great recession.

 

[ukdaytrader]

I was hoping to be out of this by 8.50pm today......but it looks like its going against me. I was only looking for 10-20 points.

 

[foredog]

ADRs of UK stock are irrelevant, there's not many of them and very little volume anyway.

At the moment it just seems that the market wants to go up so unless any news is REALLY bad it'll keep on ticking up.

 

[ukdaytrader]

OK so it does just follow the S&P blindly. Excellent.

 

[ukdaytrader]

Looks like the overshoot is correcting itself. Wonder what will happen when the US markets open

 

[foredog]

My advice, which probably won't be worth much, don't be too brave.

FTSE hasn't (yet) broken 4400 so would seem to be some support there and also US futures are not exactly screaming off rather just a drift and given how quickly they rally sometimes you could easily see it ping back up.

Just my opinion, i'd prbably have my stop to BE by now. Guess it depends if you're in it for 30 pts or 300.

 

[ukdaytrader]

Unfortunately reversed out of the FTSE cash Sale last night and bought a 4400 daily put option for the day this morning. It cost 16.8. These expire at 16.30. I was worried about a rally.

A bit of a mistake looking as I could have just pulled out at 4002 if I hadn't closed the cash sales. I was in at £20 per point so could have cleared £400 this morning and spent the day with my mistress.

I think the likeihood of a sub 4400 level on the FTSE is looking more and more remote as you say.

I was expecting the correction to occur this morning, if there was going to be one.

I think I may have lost the 16.8 points on the Put.

Today there is the US existing home sales report and tomorrow the unemployment figures.

If the homesale report comes out bad I would expect there the S&P to lose a further 5 - 10 points as there will be nervousness around the unemployment figures tomorrow, but not sure if there will be time for the Puts to come into action.

Im going to watch the S&P like a hawk today and tomorrow prior to release - in case someone knows something that everyone else doesn't.

 

[ukdaytrader]

Wow i've been promoted to senior member status.......do i get a certificate ?

 

[ukdaytrader]

Ok a few hours left, it keeps getting close to the 4400 but not below it. Its 2 hours till the announcement. It looks like a loss for me for the day today.........I will carry on with my news research.

 

[tomorton]

So far, the fact that the FTSE's retracement back down the 26/05 candlestick has been so limited is encouraging. But all depends on the US.