Frustrated about EURUSD not falling apart?

[Eurusd Trader]

In June 2010 EURUSD dropped < 1.1900 on Greek debt problems. In November 2011 we have added Portugal, Irelands, Italy, Spain and France to the group and EURUSD is > 1.3500. Put down for yourself the three main reasons for this and you might see why it is holding as well as it does.

 

[wackypete2]

My first 3 reasons are all the same: The US $ can't hold up.

Doesn't matter much to me anyway as I am not a position trader. I just follow the action.

Peter

 

[shakespeare515]

Agree with your first 3 reasons, Pete..

 

[DannyBly]

Looking at the EUR/USD chart we can identify the recent bearish 'Death Cross' and the key nearby support levels of 1.3141 (the recent low) and below that the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the swing high to low at 1.3047.

Chart courtesy of Worden

 

[Lord Flasheart]

I'll give you three reasons why Euro is very strong

1) If any country pull out of Euro,then the Euro gets stronger as it is basically Germany's currency anyway.
2) One major influence will be how the US bares up,if they start to have real problems then what happens then.
3) Everyone thinks its a sell

anyway I'm with wacky and cant see past the next day

 

[Thrall]

In June 2010 EURUSD dropped < 1.1900 on Greek debt problems. In November 2011 we have added Portugal, Irelands, Italy, Spain and France to the group and EURUSD is > 1.3500.......

1-They say "The news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news"
2-Market is not always right

 

[barjon]

I'll give you three reasons why Euro is very strong

1) If any country pull out of Euro,then the Euro gets stronger as it is basically Germany's currency anyway.
2) One major influence will be how the US bares up,if they start to have real problems then what happens then.
3) Everyone thinks its a sell

anyway I'm with wacky and cant see past the next day

aye, if the euro collapses German competitiveness will be fantastic. Clever is Germany - if they weren't Euro they'd probably have had to have faced continual revaluation of the Deutchmark as their relative growth outstripped others. As it is, the "value" of their Euro currency is artificially low (for them) and keeps them super-competitive in the international trade arena. Nice

jon

 

[sj8070]

I'd be interested to hear what people think about the prospect of ECB printing.

There is a view held currently that this solution is actually likely to strengthen the Euro ( very counterintuitive)

 

[WoodD]

I can't see the Euro falling below 1.3 for a long time, unless there are further developments on downgrading various European countries. I believe we all are speculating downward pressure on the Euro but I'm sure some big players in Europe won't want their currencies going into trouble... no one wants another Soros on the Euro. My personal opinion is that it will this volatility will continue at 1.325-75 as no one really knows the depths of the Euro problems, Germany seem to be holding it up quite well and the Austerity measures are repressing any growth the Euro area will see. In terms of trade, this is also apparent as the US is feeling the pressure and of course a down pressure on the EUR/USD should help either economy, some critics are pushing for a 1-1 but of there are too many factors stopping this. As we enter the next year, the ECB will want to push for Quant easing, the UK have remained stable on this but as Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland etc. are all on their toes, they may view the Austerity measures as necessary combined with a few tweaks in Euro prints to help the currency remain stable, of course if inflation figures remain stable and unemployment continues to rise, we may see a turnaround in policy as to avoid the dreaded stagflation.

I think we all know that there is a lot of power behind the Euro and they will want to continue strengthening and backing the Euro but all the signs are there and this is exactly what they fear most.