Friday Markets

[cd173]

Morning All

Does anyone out there have a policy of not trading on a Friday? IMHO I find it the most difficult day of the week as markets tend to be very choppy possibly due to light volume.
Result= higher risk of failed trades (maybe)?

However, I do find Mondays very good.

Interested to hear others thoughts on this?

Thanks
Chris

 

[TheBramble]

Chris, I bought a book many years ago (can't remember title or author) which I think is/was updated annually.

Tracked the various best months of the years, etc. for trading. Can't recall if it went into days-of-the-week, but may well have done.

Anyone out there with less of a Friday amnesia problem?

(Even more worrying is that I can't even find it in my library.)

 

[Bigbusiness]

I have the stock trader's almanac. It is full of information about what the markets have done in previous years.

http://books.global-investor.com/bo...0&identifier=216dfa19c939dcf485b3aa3c7cadef3f

I am working on a spreadsheet to look at each day but at the speed I work at it will take a few years to finish it. It's a shame I didn't learn how to use excel when I had more brain cells.

My observations are that Mondays on average seem to be more bullish than Fridays. But I suppose if there has been a sharp fall on a Monday, that observation might not hold. Over the last year there do seem to have been a lot of trending Mondays. Options expiries are held on Fridays and those days can be quite choppy.

 

[cd173]

Morning Chaps

From the info I have with regards to US markets:

September is the most bearish month of the year - last 15 years it has only been up around 5 times

May is the most bullish - last 12 years was the best month of the year 11 times

November, December & January are best months to be in the market

Bear markets often end in October?? - 1946, 1957, 1960, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990 & 1998 bear runs all ended in October...subject to debate I suppose

The last, 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th are best time of the month to be in market - this 5 day span is usually the best performing of particular month

2nd day of month historically best day of particular month....62.3% probability.....

Fridays.....crap

All comments welcomed!

Cheers

 

[rossored]

No different than the rest of week imo!

 

[FetteredChinos]

ok, its time for me to urinate on those bonfires again..

its all very well saying that :-

Bear markets often end in October?? - 1946, 1957, 1960, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990 & 1998 bear runs all ended in October...subject to debate I suppose

and:-

May is the most bullish - last 12 years was the best month of the year 11 times



but guys, whilst in the long run that this might be the case (i am not the lord eternal, but i am close lol) the population size for deducing "probabilities" is far far far too small.

after all, you wouldnt base a trading strategy having worked out paramaters that would work for 10 trades??? no, you would backtest over several hundred trades at the minimum.

FC

 

[MGBRoadster]

2nd day of month historically best day of particular month....62.3% probability.....

Now I'm confused

I did some research last year and I thought the 1st was the best day. I'll have to look at it again, but I think I was basing it on largest consistent gain, and I only went back about four years.

Anyway I've had an up-bet on the first day of every month since last December- four wins out of five so far, so I'm not complaining

 

[MGBRoadster]

Quote from http://observer.guardian.co.uk/cash/story/0,6903,1086060,00.html fwiw

>>Spread betting expert Vince Stanzione says trends repeat themselves over and over again, so you just need to learn what to look for.

'Markets are often bullish on the last day of the month and the first three or four of a new month, possibly because this is when people's pension contributions are invested by the fund managers,' he says.

The same holds true before market holidays in the US, including Memorial Day, 4 July, Labour Day, Thanksgiving and Martin Luther King Day, the third Monday in January, while September tends to be a good month to bet on gold.

Markets often go up on Mondays and down on Wednesdays and Fridays.

 

[frugi]

Spread betting expert Vince Stanzione

LOL.

However he's right about the end of month markup that usually spills through into the first couple of days of the new month. Could be due to pensions, monthly direct debits drip feeding unit trusts after pay day or the fund managers wishing to flatter their performance before they send out end of month/quarter statements.

Mondays slight bullish bias, Fridays slight bearish bias, agreed.

 

[cd173]

Hello All

The info I posted was based on Pristine's Master Trader Books. Always nice to get some discussion going! :idea:
With regards to Bear markets and October, could it be something to do with the US fiscal year ending and fund managers re-investing again?
Investors Chronicle did some research into the S&P 500 and found it a good time to buy the worst performing stocks!?
Historically it does seem to work very well. This year's return is around 30% at present I believe.

Cheers