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Fixed Income Technical Outlook
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
Index Strat
T-Note Flat
Gilt Pending
Bund Flat
Treasury Note (10-Year)
Short-term Technical Outlook
Treasuries have seen significant volatility through the past week, but the biggest moves have been reserved for the lower end of the yield curve. Nonetheless, the active contract on the benchmark 10-year note has enjoyed enough activity to drive prices back up to near-term resistance. The sharp pull back (partially due to contract rollover) in T-note through September has left a notable 61.8% retracement around 118. With 118-15 offering heavier fortification, the bulls may struggle to maintain the upward drive without significant volatility.
UK Gilt (10-Year)
Short-term Technical Outlook
The benchmark Gilt is on the cusp of a major market shift. There are two scenarios for this market from this point on. With a major range resistance level around 114.35 (which has held up to many tests in a year’s time), we could bulls fail to breech yet again. In the past, this has led to periods of congestion before the market finally turned over. Alternatively, a break (and at least daily bar close) above this level would trip a lot of soft and hard stops and no doubt generate powerful follow through. For a breakout, the next level to take doesn’t come in until 300-500 points above resistance. A pullback will first test 113, but would then have considerable room to run.
Japanese Government Bond (10-Year)
Short-term Technical Outlook
Price action has been somewhat restrained in 10-year JGB price action. Though volatility has risen over the past few weeks, the increase In activity hasn’t translated into direction. With a gap at the beginning of this week, the active nearby opened nearly 100 basis points up from Friday’s close, but major resistance is still a ways off at 140. Between 140 and 132.50, there is a lot of room for the market to maneuver. However, major trends are off the table until one of these extremes falls.
Written by: John Kicklighter and Jamie Saettele, Strategists for CFDTrading.com
Questions? Comments? You can send them to [email protected]
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
Index Strat
T-Note Flat
Gilt Pending
Bund Flat
Treasury Note (10-Year)
Short-term Technical Outlook
Treasuries have seen significant volatility through the past week, but the biggest moves have been reserved for the lower end of the yield curve. Nonetheless, the active contract on the benchmark 10-year note has enjoyed enough activity to drive prices back up to near-term resistance. The sharp pull back (partially due to contract rollover) in T-note through September has left a notable 61.8% retracement around 118. With 118-15 offering heavier fortification, the bulls may struggle to maintain the upward drive without significant volatility.
UK Gilt (10-Year)
Short-term Technical Outlook
The benchmark Gilt is on the cusp of a major market shift. There are two scenarios for this market from this point on. With a major range resistance level around 114.35 (which has held up to many tests in a year’s time), we could bulls fail to breech yet again. In the past, this has led to periods of congestion before the market finally turned over. Alternatively, a break (and at least daily bar close) above this level would trip a lot of soft and hard stops and no doubt generate powerful follow through. For a breakout, the next level to take doesn’t come in until 300-500 points above resistance. A pullback will first test 113, but would then have considerable room to run.
Japanese Government Bond (10-Year)
Short-term Technical Outlook
Price action has been somewhat restrained in 10-year JGB price action. Though volatility has risen over the past few weeks, the increase In activity hasn’t translated into direction. With a gap at the beginning of this week, the active nearby opened nearly 100 basis points up from Friday’s close, but major resistance is still a ways off at 140. Between 140 and 132.50, there is a lot of room for the market to maneuver. However, major trends are off the table until one of these extremes falls.
Written by: John Kicklighter and Jamie Saettele, Strategists for CFDTrading.com
Questions? Comments? You can send them to [email protected]
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.