Dear Charty,
Glad to see you on SI. I wish I had your email to inform you of the new site. I believe you are into developing a new future prediction model. This is excellent. I started a research into this subject around 1990 ish where I was a research fellow at Manchester Poly (Currently known as Manchester Metropolitan University, All saints building) and by 1995 with lady colleague of mine from Imperial college we Developed a model using various Artificial Intelligence Neural Net strategies to forecast the short term price projection of stocks. Unfortunately the model did not perform due to our lack of understanding of data series representing the historical data. Our assumption was that there was a definite correlation between the past and future and we were going to exploit this bond. As our research continued we noticed that this was a naïve assumption and the assumed correlation did not exist at all times (Both the existence and degree of correlation was under question). Our system failed to predict the future price trend with an acceptable degree of accuracy.
Around 1997 I studied the work of Dr Andrew Colin and Doyne Farmer who is well known in wall street(Farmer started a company called the Prediction Company to hack the stock market, by beating the Odds on wall street). I soon realized that although stock prices move in a chaotic non-linear fashion but there was a HIDDEN ORDER which was far from random behavior and I could use this order to predict the next few days stock movements.
Any way to cut the long story short I managed to develop a new model which works fine and shifts the odds in traders side in all markets. I shorted BLM on the back of my model on 29thNOV (I think it was around 330 to under 290) with a tidy profit in a very short time. My trading model is not the best around but uses the state of the art technology (Neural Network lag_recurrent system) to model the stock behavior. A copy of the prediction was sent to Mr. SAQ_MUIR of share magazine as well as few of my close friends. (Saq suggested to introduce this concept in Share mag and it was published last week Issue 51 page 54. Please let me know if you wish to have the full report as well as the prediction model for BLM. Don’t forget to leave me you email.)
Any way If you are thinking of designing a future prediction model, let me know I can save you years of research work. (look at CRACKING WALL STREET to start you of).
I feel our small but intelligent community at SI is now ready to move on to topics such as
1) Does TA work for all stocks? Hmmmm (Not for Tech stocks IMHO, due to excess randomness within the data series)
2) Rigid and Adaptive indicators (God this is so important for any new technician)
3) Correct settings for indicators
4) Time frames (weekly daily)
5) Day trading
6) The most efficient stock selection criteria in choppy market
I am up to my neck in stocks now with some positions down at the moment but I will contribute weekends as much as I can.
If any of members feel there is any interest in Neural Network Modeling of stock behavior I will be more than please to open a thread on this subject
DOGS DON’T KNOW MATH YET CAN BE TRAINED TO PREDICTIVLEY CALCULATE THE PATH OF A FRISBEE AND CATCH IT PRECISLEY. (I have made an invalid assumption in here; any body knows what that is?)
See you all
PS My neural network model is called CHEETAH.
[This message has been edited by Dr Iraj (edited 02-01-2001).]
[This message has been edited by Dr Iraj (edited 02-01-2001).]
Glad to see you on SI. I wish I had your email to inform you of the new site. I believe you are into developing a new future prediction model. This is excellent. I started a research into this subject around 1990 ish where I was a research fellow at Manchester Poly (Currently known as Manchester Metropolitan University, All saints building) and by 1995 with lady colleague of mine from Imperial college we Developed a model using various Artificial Intelligence Neural Net strategies to forecast the short term price projection of stocks. Unfortunately the model did not perform due to our lack of understanding of data series representing the historical data. Our assumption was that there was a definite correlation between the past and future and we were going to exploit this bond. As our research continued we noticed that this was a naïve assumption and the assumed correlation did not exist at all times (Both the existence and degree of correlation was under question). Our system failed to predict the future price trend with an acceptable degree of accuracy.
Around 1997 I studied the work of Dr Andrew Colin and Doyne Farmer who is well known in wall street(Farmer started a company called the Prediction Company to hack the stock market, by beating the Odds on wall street). I soon realized that although stock prices move in a chaotic non-linear fashion but there was a HIDDEN ORDER which was far from random behavior and I could use this order to predict the next few days stock movements.
Any way to cut the long story short I managed to develop a new model which works fine and shifts the odds in traders side in all markets. I shorted BLM on the back of my model on 29thNOV (I think it was around 330 to under 290) with a tidy profit in a very short time. My trading model is not the best around but uses the state of the art technology (Neural Network lag_recurrent system) to model the stock behavior. A copy of the prediction was sent to Mr. SAQ_MUIR of share magazine as well as few of my close friends. (Saq suggested to introduce this concept in Share mag and it was published last week Issue 51 page 54. Please let me know if you wish to have the full report as well as the prediction model for BLM. Don’t forget to leave me you email.)
Any way If you are thinking of designing a future prediction model, let me know I can save you years of research work. (look at CRACKING WALL STREET to start you of).
I feel our small but intelligent community at SI is now ready to move on to topics such as
1) Does TA work for all stocks? Hmmmm (Not for Tech stocks IMHO, due to excess randomness within the data series)
2) Rigid and Adaptive indicators (God this is so important for any new technician)
3) Correct settings for indicators
4) Time frames (weekly daily)
5) Day trading
6) The most efficient stock selection criteria in choppy market
I am up to my neck in stocks now with some positions down at the moment but I will contribute weekends as much as I can.
If any of members feel there is any interest in Neural Network Modeling of stock behavior I will be more than please to open a thread on this subject
DOGS DON’T KNOW MATH YET CAN BE TRAINED TO PREDICTIVLEY CALCULATE THE PATH OF A FRISBEE AND CATCH IT PRECISLEY. (I have made an invalid assumption in here; any body knows what that is?)
See you all
PS My neural network model is called CHEETAH.
[This message has been edited by Dr Iraj (edited 02-01-2001).]
[This message has been edited by Dr Iraj (edited 02-01-2001).]
