Exiting an uptrend

[momothebored]

Hello

Have read a few livermore books but seems incomplete.

According to what i've read so far these are the exit signals:
(i) 1-day reversal
(ii) Suspicious behaviour --> Sudden heavy rises on heavy volumes usually near mark the end of the move

So I added my own:
(iii) Break of trend channel on increasing / same volume



What else is usually used as an exit signal that an uptrend is over?

tyvm, am a beginner

 

[WR1]

all sorts of indicators can be used
can't give specifics (as part of my Grail strategy's)

but try out a ton of indicators on different TFs
tweak and set them up over 3 yrs of back data

 

[momothebored]

all sorts of indicators can be used
can't give specifics (as part of my Grail strategy's)

but try out a ton of indicators on different TFs
tweak and set them up over 3 yrs of back data

Do you mean back-test the particular security to figure out what works best for it?

 

[WR1]

Do you mean back-test the particular security to figure out what works best for it?

yes,
but you can often use the same couple of indicators on most instruments
as once you find a few good ones, they usually work well on most,
with a little tweaking

you need to think slightly out of the box with exit signals, but does nt take too long to figure out whats best
also they don't need to be absolutely perfect or get every pip - just good enough to catch the trends and enough to be safe

and major news can mess up exits and settings so also needs to be taken into account

get out signals are also useful as a master close signal
that maybe a different indicator, often on a higher TF

 

[momothebored]

Your statement about the same couple of indicators working on most is interesting.

Could you please point me in the right direction at least?

I've actually back-tested a ton of things but so far there hasn't really been much correlation.

MA crosses end up whip-sawing like mad, and taking what worked for something never really has had any success on others or even itself at a later time.
Same with MACDH, ADX etc.

btw i trade equities, not forex

yes,
but you can often use the same couple of indicators on most instruments
as once you find a few good ones, they usually work well on most,
with a little tweaking

you need to think slightly out of the box with exit signals, but does nt take too long to figure out whats best
also they don't need to be absolutely perfect or get every pip - just good enough to catch the trends and enough to be safe

and major news can mess up exits and settings so also needs to be taken into account

get out signals are also useful as a master close signal
that maybe a different indicator, often on a higher TF

 

[momothebored]

WR1 your latest message disappeared from the thread somehow!

Anyway i get the idea about multi screens.

Currently am using multi-screens + Livermore, but my screens are weekly and daily only.
Would like monthly screens but then i'd end up trading once in a very long while.

So..

Let's say:
Initially:
Weekly charts = uptrend
Daily charts = uptrend

Then after a couple of weeks, daily charts start making lower highs.

Then that'd simply be your exit?

 

[Liquid validity]

Uptrend exit - reasons:

Trendline break (not just a test).
Lower high, lower low.
Breach of support (not just a test).
Test of Big round number.

Flip for short exit.

 

[momothebored]

Uptrend exit - reasons:

Trendline break (not just a test).
Lower high, lower low.
Breach of support (not just a test).
Test of Big round number.

Flip for short exit.

Hi

How do you differentiate between a break and a test, besides hindsight?
Volume? If so, how much?

What does this mean?

Test of Big round number.
Flip for short exit


Sorry, not very experienced.

 

[VielGeld]

I look for the failure of a rally after a top (in a time frame I consider significant) as cue I should make an exit.

I take a look at whether the rally breaks through a certain level to determine if it failed or not.

 

[Liquid validity]

How do you differentiate between a break and a test, besides hindsight?

A test or multiple tests usually come before a typical break.
Think of it as a tug of war between buyers and sellers.
There are no rules, you just pick it up by watching price.

A volatile break on the other hand will shoot through fast,
for whatever reason, lots of people pile in quickly in the direction
of a fast break.
No one on the opposing side wants to step in front of it, so it carries
on unchecked.

Volume? If so, how much?

Can't put a solid figure on it, all depends on instrument.
Generally, higher than normal volume, vague I know.
There is no solid answer though.

What does this mean?

Test of Big round number.
Flip for short exit

Big round number - with that stock you are watching here:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/stocks/179526-drys-how-would-you-trade.html
4.00 is a big round number.
In FX, 1.3300 is a Big round number.
Those areas quite often cause a lot of sideways movement,
as buyers and sellers reach a balance - reason, mostly psychological
(think meet someone at 3, you don't say 15:07 for instance).
Also those areas tend to be common places for stop loss orders.

 

[VielGeld]

There are no rules, you just pick it up by watching price.

Yes, precisely.

You just get a feel for it after having watched price move after countless hours of screen-watching. It's got a certain rhythm to it that you eventually catch on to.

Of course, listening to and observing others helps a lot, as well. I honestly would not be able to see price the way I do without a bit of help from select T2W members.

 

[momothebored]

Yes, precisely.

You just get a feel for it after having watched price move after countless hours of screen-watching. It's got a certain rhythm to it that you eventually catch on to.

Of course, listening to and observing others helps a lot, as well. I honestly would not be able to see price the way I do without a bit of help from select T2W members.

........ guess i'll be posting lots of charts here asking for help the next few days lol

 

[momothebored]

Thanks for all the great answers. This place is hell of a lot better than some of the asian trading forums where people just try to get you to buy their micro-cap junk.

 

[Liquid validity]

........ guess i'll be posting lots of charts here asking for help the next few days lol

Looking at your other posts and threads, you are pretty much on the right track
for the way you trade.
Just carry on as you are and build experience.

If I or anyone else can help, glad to, I don't mind when someone exhibits
signs of thought and work.

Ultimately though, take any help with a pinch of salt, by that I mean
build and trust your own experience, ultimately relying on that and no one else.
By all means verify for yourself anything anyone else says,
just don't take it as gospel until you confirm the logic

 

[VielGeld]

Ultimately though, take any help with a pinch of salt, by that I mean
build and trust your own experience, ultimately relying on that and no one else.
By all means verify for yourself anything anyone else says,
just don't take it as gospel until you confirm the logic

I'll again agree with LV here, as I was about to post as much.

I mean, there are plenty of ways to see the rhythm of price, but the way you see it is the only thing that matters in the end. You'll come across a lot of good advice I'm sure you'll incorporate into your trading, but only a handful of it will really resonate with your style.

Good luck, eh?