Eurusd Trader
Junior member
- Messages
- 21
- Likes
- 3
For those who like to play the volatility for EURUSD – yesterday was a good day. Great moves – and rather predictable turns – and repeated I can’t remember for how many times – is a pips picking activity. And we ended approximately where we started.
Will today be the same? I doubt it. 1.3750 is a critical level and a level from where one can draw two distinctive scenarios for EURUSD. I have a felling the market will go for one of them – and it might be today.
Greece and Italy are still in the spotlight as political wrangling goes on. The Greek party leaders failed to appoint a new Prime Minister – but I’m less focused on that. They seem to agree on the EU agreement and as long as this agreement will be approved – let them go on for a few days more. In the end cash will run out and by then they will have agreed upon whoever is going to be a puppet under the troika.
Italian bonds are now entering danger zone. And that’s more of a concern. Now we talk big bucks and decisive actions must be taken by the Italian parliament – and quickly. Selfish political actions are a dangerous game when so much is at stake.
The UK prime minister understands this, which is why he is barking more than before. London has little to contribute to solving euro-zone debt issues – nor do the Brits want to. But they bark loudly now – as they see that they could be brutally affected if the euro-zone doesn’t sort itself out.
The US administration has done the same for some time – for the same reason. Everyone is afraid of the euro-zone failing to resolve their problems. They scream that decisive actions must be taken. Easy to do when you are sidelined yourself.
France looks to take some decisive actions on its’; debt issues. A five year 65 billion Euros savings plan as suggested yesterday includes some tough actions. The French might not like them – but should they be implemented – France might have a chance to preserve its AAA rating, which looks to have been part of the motivation for implementing the plan now.
It’s a bit difficult to see “risk on” days emerging from this – but as the problems have been hanging around for such a long time – once in a while you need to focus on something else and then risk appetite emerges.
Today’s agenda hold very few data releases that should impact EURUSD. We have German trade balance and current accounts. We have NFIB Small Business Optimism in the US. Neither of these data should cause any movements for EURUSD – unless they really surprises.
I am more focused on a set-up of Chinese data coming out Wednesday morning. They include Chinese CPI, industrial production and retail sales. From these figures we should get more indications to the debt and length of the global slowdown now seen. Those releases could set some moves for EURUSD. More on that tomorrow.
I see two possible directions for EURUSD from this 1.3750 level – in terms of the next 500-750 pips. Both can be argued pretty well from a mix of technical and sentiment indicators. Fundaments are a bit out for both of them – but very much in if you want to extend the move for another 500 pips.
We will discuss them at length in our EURUSD Trading Room today. If you want to join in – please register on our website.
Good luck with your pips searching. Don’t get too greedy and while ranges might trigger higher leverage – don’t do it. There might be surprises to come.
Will today be the same? I doubt it. 1.3750 is a critical level and a level from where one can draw two distinctive scenarios for EURUSD. I have a felling the market will go for one of them – and it might be today.
Greece and Italy are still in the spotlight as political wrangling goes on. The Greek party leaders failed to appoint a new Prime Minister – but I’m less focused on that. They seem to agree on the EU agreement and as long as this agreement will be approved – let them go on for a few days more. In the end cash will run out and by then they will have agreed upon whoever is going to be a puppet under the troika.
Italian bonds are now entering danger zone. And that’s more of a concern. Now we talk big bucks and decisive actions must be taken by the Italian parliament – and quickly. Selfish political actions are a dangerous game when so much is at stake.
The UK prime minister understands this, which is why he is barking more than before. London has little to contribute to solving euro-zone debt issues – nor do the Brits want to. But they bark loudly now – as they see that they could be brutally affected if the euro-zone doesn’t sort itself out.
The US administration has done the same for some time – for the same reason. Everyone is afraid of the euro-zone failing to resolve their problems. They scream that decisive actions must be taken. Easy to do when you are sidelined yourself.
France looks to take some decisive actions on its’; debt issues. A five year 65 billion Euros savings plan as suggested yesterday includes some tough actions. The French might not like them – but should they be implemented – France might have a chance to preserve its AAA rating, which looks to have been part of the motivation for implementing the plan now.
It’s a bit difficult to see “risk on” days emerging from this – but as the problems have been hanging around for such a long time – once in a while you need to focus on something else and then risk appetite emerges.
Today’s agenda hold very few data releases that should impact EURUSD. We have German trade balance and current accounts. We have NFIB Small Business Optimism in the US. Neither of these data should cause any movements for EURUSD – unless they really surprises.
I am more focused on a set-up of Chinese data coming out Wednesday morning. They include Chinese CPI, industrial production and retail sales. From these figures we should get more indications to the debt and length of the global slowdown now seen. Those releases could set some moves for EURUSD. More on that tomorrow.
I see two possible directions for EURUSD from this 1.3750 level – in terms of the next 500-750 pips. Both can be argued pretty well from a mix of technical and sentiment indicators. Fundaments are a bit out for both of them – but very much in if you want to extend the move for another 500 pips.
We will discuss them at length in our EURUSD Trading Room today. If you want to join in – please register on our website.
Good luck with your pips searching. Don’t get too greedy and while ranges might trigger higher leverage – don’t do it. There might be surprises to come.
Up or down. 
