AntaresScorpius
Junior member
- Messages
- 10
- Likes
- 0
Eur/Usd a nice little drawing
- Thread starter AntaresScorpius
- Start date
- Watchers 5
If price pulls back that far we should expect a nice move down. If Trump starts talking tough about Tariffs again, the Euro will likely see a nice drop without price ever getting up there. Tariffs are the overriding narrative in the markets right now. You can forget fundamentals and technicals when it comes to the current tariff narrative. The tariff narrative (sentiment) dominates everything else currently. If there is a more dovish narrative from Trump then expected, we should see the EUR strengthen some. More hawkish the dollar will strengthen. A lot of uncertainty now.
Keep an eye on the US economic data this week. Some important announcements and Powell is going to speak. Again tariffs/sentiment will take precedent over the announcements in the short term.
ECB is looking to cut rates, economic data could be better. Fed looking to hold rates with good economic data. The USD is much stronger. There will likely will be plenty of good opportunities to sell the EUR on pullbacks against the USD. No reason to force this trade if it doesn’t present as hoped for.
Keep an eye on the US economic data this week. Some important announcements and Powell is going to speak. Again tariffs/sentiment will take precedent over the announcements in the short term.
ECB is looking to cut rates, economic data could be better. Fed looking to hold rates with good economic data. The USD is much stronger. There will likely will be plenty of good opportunities to sell the EUR on pullbacks against the USD. No reason to force this trade if it doesn’t present as hoped for.
Nothing to worry about. Tariffs create volatility. Volatility moves the market. Volatility is required. No one would make money if the markets flatlined.
If it doesn’t reach the level then it is most likely not a “key level” at this point in time. There will always be another level of interest, always. One of the few things that are 100% guaranteed in the markets is that there will always be a pullback. If the Euro drops it will eventually find a nice level to pullback to.
Relax and wait for the Trades to come to you. If you miss a trade who cares. There will always be another nice setup. You have a lifetime of trades ahead of you.
If it doesn’t reach the level then it is most likely not a “key level” at this point in time. There will always be another level of interest, always. One of the few things that are 100% guaranteed in the markets is that there will always be a pullback. If the Euro drops it will eventually find a nice level to pullback to.
Relax and wait for the Trades to come to you. If you miss a trade who cares. There will always be another nice setup. You have a lifetime of trades ahead of you.
Nice initial move down on the CPI release. See where we are at in about an hour or so when the market settles a little. Then Powell speaks later today which can move the markets more depending on his statements. I don't expect any surprises from Powell concerning interest rates, but you never know how the market will interpret any of his statements. I would wait until after Powell speaks before considering an entry. Let the markets settle and digest everything.
I got in in Friday, short, for a couple of reasons.
Fundamentally;
Looking for about 230 pips. Will take some profit off when I hit 1:1. Then this is a free trade. Take a little more off when I reach my profit target. Then let the rest run as there is the potential for a larger move down. I intend to continue shorting the EUR on pullbacks until the economic data suggest I shouldn’t.
Then again every time Trump opens his mouth the markets react unpredictably in one direction or the other. Kind of making me crazy. Who knows what Trump is going to say and when, which makes it difficult to trade.
Fundamentally;
- The dollar is much stronger than the EUR. Upside for the EUR should be limited from a fundamental perspective, but sentiment can continue to drive the EUR higher. We will see.
- The EUR strengthened based on sentiment not fundamentals. The economic data doesn’t support the strengthening EUR against the dollar. This makes for a potential very nice move when the EUR turns down. The move down hopefully should be more profitable due to sentiment pushing the EUR higher before reversing.
- Sentiment is shorter lived. Fundamentals determine the medium to longer direction. Fundamentals will eventually take over when sentiment fades or gets priced in. Fundamentals are currently indicating the dollar is much stronger and subsequently should move higher against the EUR. Buy the strong, sell the weak.
- There was a strong move up without much of a pullback. Often get a larger move down/pullback, if you are looking to short in this situation.
- It is an area where I expect some profit taking, selling of the EUR.
Looking for about 230 pips. Will take some profit off when I hit 1:1. Then this is a free trade. Take a little more off when I reach my profit target. Then let the rest run as there is the potential for a larger move down. I intend to continue shorting the EUR on pullbacks until the economic data suggest I shouldn’t.
Then again every time Trump opens his mouth the markets react unpredictably in one direction or the other. Kind of making me crazy. Who knows what Trump is going to say and when, which makes it difficult to trade.
MonicaGong
Junior member
- Messages
- 20
- Likes
- 4
Hovering around 1.04932
MonicaGong
Junior member
- Messages
- 20
- Likes
- 4
Dipped to 1.0456
I forgot about the German elections when the trade was placed, so was overly optimistic on my trade targets. The market tends not to move much before a major event or announcement. The trade was not likely to play out as hoped for. Forgetfulness. Don’t place trades when you are tired. 1st mistake.
In profit about 30 pips last Friday. Should have exited the trade taking profit on Friday before the German elections, but didn’t. My 2nd mistake. I violated my rule not to trade economic announcements or major events.
German elections no surprises. No big moves. Some dollar weakening due to data, not a lot. Dollar still stronger than the EUR fundamentally.
The trade has already been open for a while, sputtering. Since price is bouncing around on top of the range I decided to sit tight and see if the EUR rolls over. Was not likely to happen before the PCE data announcement this coming Friday. The market often takes a wait and see attitude before an important announcement.
PCE is the Feds preferred measure of inflation and can potentially really move the market if there is a surprise. Not going to make a 3rd mistake trying to trade announcements. I am out of all USD pairs until after the PCE is announced on Friday. Took 15 pips. Not the best trade, but better than a loss.
In profit about 30 pips last Friday. Should have exited the trade taking profit on Friday before the German elections, but didn’t. My 2nd mistake. I violated my rule not to trade economic announcements or major events.
German elections no surprises. No big moves. Some dollar weakening due to data, not a lot. Dollar still stronger than the EUR fundamentally.
The trade has already been open for a while, sputtering. Since price is bouncing around on top of the range I decided to sit tight and see if the EUR rolls over. Was not likely to happen before the PCE data announcement this coming Friday. The market often takes a wait and see attitude before an important announcement.
PCE is the Feds preferred measure of inflation and can potentially really move the market if there is a surprise. Not going to make a 3rd mistake trying to trade announcements. I am out of all USD pairs until after the PCE is announced on Friday. Took 15 pips. Not the best trade, but better than a loss.
Phylo
Senior member
- Messages
- 3,364
- Likes
- 360
An alternatively approach - #Post 16,833: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/charts-charts-and-more-charts.240207/page-842#post-3269905
1 minute EURUSD Mon 3 Mar 2025
1 minute EURUSD Mon 3 Mar 2025
