eminis contracts -what is the risk??

ikeano

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hi all-
i hope you are all well- i am currently speaking with a us based trader who trades s and p eminis contracts,
i am considering having him manage an account on my behalf under a limited power of attorney contract on a pre agreed % age of profits basis,
i have been watching him trade a demo account for me for 2 months and have viewed an automated version of his trading on a backtested 2 year time frame. his success rate to date is fantastic -he gets 90 % of trades accurate consistently,however his losses are sometimes bigger than his gains -to date the max drawdown on the demo and backtested version was 20 %.but his returns over the 2 month period on the demo are in the region of 700 %.
he does not use margin.and s the account frows so too does the number of contracts traded-this is done on a pro rata basis.
my questions are really geared at eminis traders and i would be very grateful for your advice on money management and risk issues on this particular vehicle.,
1-
the traders normal wins are in the region of 2 to 3 points,he often takes less.sometimes even a tick(.25)
his losses are often only a tick but he has said that he sometimes sets stops 15 points away from his entry,and that this rarely gets hit-in the 2 months that i have witnessed it has not been hit as yet,however sometimes he thas taken losses in the region of 6,7 and 8 points.
my question is re money management-
what do you think that the largest number of contracts should be traded at a time on say a $50000 account?
he trades 10 contracts on a $50000 account ,
this means that if the 15 point stop is hit -the loss would be 10 *50*15 = $7500
-this is potentially 15 % of the account worth-
as i say this has not happened as yet and the max drawdown was in the region of 20 %-but i wonder what people think that the maximum number of contracts traded on that account size should be?
2-
my second question relates to the risks of trading the s and p eminis contracts specifically,
if we assume that the above scenario re number of contracts traded holds steady ,then if 10 contracts are traded on this account size,a drop of 100 points wipes out the acccount,a bigger drop means a call from the broker for funds,
my fear is that a catastrophic event such as a terrorist attack or some other such like may spark such a fall ,particularly if the trade is overnight,or even worse that the markets could albeit unlikely be suspended,rendering stop losses ineffective,
what are your thoughts on this?
what is the likelyhood of this happening and if such an event were to happen and for example the market gapped unfavourably,what other measure s if any could one take to minimise the downside?
3)
does any one know if an llc or some other such vehicle could be used to trade the account and thus limit liability in the event of a margin call?
4)
if a safety vehicle could be used -what arethe tax implications

i would be very grateful for all your comments=brian



iis u
 
He sounds like what is known in the business as a "gunslinger" and gunslingers never last. Caveat emptor.

jj
 
hi jj

He sounds like what is known in the business as a "gunslinger" and gunslingers never last. Caveat emptor.

jj

hi jj-
thanks for the reply-
what element of his strategy are you unimpressed with-is it the money management element?or somethhing else?
the reason for the post was to try and isolate potential chinks in the system and the money management is the one area that i am somewhat concerned about- i would appreiate you comments
brian
 
Brian,

I am a conservative trader and I follow the rule: Number of contracts = (Capital/Initial margin)
Therefore I see nothing wrong with trading 10 ES contracts with $50,000 capital.

Although I can't dispute his claims I find it difficult to believe he can attain 90% success with an automated strategy. A proficient discretionary trader could probably do this consistently.

Taking 1 or 2 point profits and even 1 tick (0.25points) is acceptable for a discretionary trader with a high win rate provided they ALWAYS trade with a tight stop, around 2 points or less, 15 points is unthinkable!! Even 6 or 7 points...
 
Let him trade one contract with a max drawdown of "x' dollars, regardless of how much you fund the account...he is using a "pivot" number for picking his entry, which is ok; just beware when he's wrong (should be a minimal amount of the time) he really gets slammed.

If the account is subtantially profitable at the end of the month, add one contract, with the same drawdown rule x2. Only if the account grows substantially and regularly should you increase the contract size.

Theoretically, you risk $1 to make $3 in the futures market. Since he might be using a pretty good pivot method an exception can be made, however, any string of losses would take you out of the game quickly, and also cast doubt on his paper traded account.

EDIT:
There are pivots in the e-mini market that occur in the AM and in the PM...knowing the pivot, and the time it was created in the past will clue the trader into knowing when to enter the limit order for that pivot to be hit and cause a reversal. If he's doing what I think he's doing, he's ok; occassional large losses is the only pain, with multiple contracts it can wipe out 2 weeks of profits. That's why I would exercise very tight money management at all times.


Good luck!

MechanicalDayTrader
 
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hi new trader

hi new trader-
thanks for taking the time to repIy.
i think the 90 % is a guide as to the systems accuracy if traded manaIIy,but i am not sure about that,
i know from his records that he has been about 85 %-this is on day trades-he said 90 % was the record on the night system,
wouId an automated system have a much Iower rate in your opinion?
he has traded taking 2 ,3 and 4 point Iosses over rhe past 2-3 months since i have started to foIIow his trading-
it has never gone to 15-this was the maximum he said that he wouId use but it is very rare that he does-the reasoning fotr 15 points -i am not so sure-as i said earIier i need to go over to meet with hima nd pose aII these queries-
thanks again for trhe comments-brian
Brian,

I am a conservative trader and I follow the rule: Number of contracts = (Capital/Initial margin)
Therefore I see nothing wrong with trading 10 ES contracts with $50,000 capital.

Although I can't dispute his claims I find it difficult to believe he can attain 90% success with an automated strategy. A proficient discretionary trader could probably do this consistently.

Taking 1 or 2 point profits and even 1 tick (0.25points) is acceptable for a discretionary trader with a high win rate provided they ALWAYS trade with a tight stop, around 2 points or less, 15 points is unthinkable!! Even 6 or 7 points...
 
hi mechanicaI

hi mechanicaI
many thanks for your repIy.
i know he does use pivot numbers but this is not what the system is based on-
it is he says based on a technicaI indicator over 2 different timeframes-
if both say samething at the same time its a go-if not it isnt,
i think he uses pivots in conjunction with these for added confirmation and gaining better entries but im not sure exactIy - i do know that he uses pivots seperateIy when trading options which is a seperate starategy.
i dont understand your comment about risking $1 to make 3 in the futures market-
can you expand on that pIease-
thanks again for your time-be good-brian

Let him trade one contract with a max drawdown of "x' dollars, regardless of how much you fund the account...he is using a "pivot" number for picking his entry, which is ok; just beware when he's wrong (should be a minimal amount of the time) he really gets slammed.

If the account is subtantially profitable at the end of the month, add one contract, with the same drawdown rule x2. Only if the account grows substantially and regularly should you increase the contract size.

Theoretically, you risk $1 to make $3 in the futures market. Since he might be using a pretty good pivot method an exception can be made, however, any string of losses would take you out of the game quickly, and also cast doubt on his paper traded account.

EDIT:
There are pivots in the e-mini market that occur in the AM and in the PM...knowing the pivot, and the time it was created in the past will clue the trader into knowing when to enter the limit order for that pivot to be hit and cause a reversal. If he's doing what I think he's doing, he's ok; occassional large losses is the only pain, with multiple contracts it can wipe out 2 weeks of profits. That's why I would exercise very tight money management at all times.


Good luck!

MechanicalDayTrader
 
Pivots relate to "price" of the expected reversal; Traders would probably use multiple time frames (cycle analysis) and one or mroe technical indicators to evaluate where the market is in relationship to the "pivot" (price).

Technical Trading frequently involves time & price + a comparison with of a "fast chart" and a "slow chart" -- institutional traders typically have large stops and limits nested at pivot points to either 'enter the market' or 'unwind existing positions - take profits'.

Even if the market is in a downtrend, the market may hit a major pivot # where there are a large quantity of contracts - a daytrader can enter long when that pivot is hit and grab a quick profit and exit (or typically reverse) before the market resumes it's downward spiral. In the Dow, that movement is typically about 14 points from top to bottom of this cycle.

One just happened a few minutes ago in the Dow - I unwound half of my contracts at 11275 - the pivot was hit at about 3:30 pm ET - the market zoomed up about 17 points reversed and created a lower low. I am now flat, exiting the rest of my contracts just before 3:45 pm ET at the new Low for the afternoon. Done for the day. The pivot was known for a few hours near 11274 - many traders entered Long at that number and will attempt to hold overnight and make a profit maybe tommorrow.

Generally, if you seek advice on trading futures, the rule of thumb is, risk $1 to make $3. So, if you are trading the Mini Dow, and your goal is to make a minimum of 15 points, only risk 5 points on the stop loss. If you risk $1 to make a $1, you'll go broke fast!!

Keeping your risk at the 1:3 ratio, you can win 33% of the time and still break even (not counting commissions). Assuming some of your wins exceed your minimum profit objective of 15 points, and your win/loss ratio is maybe 45%, your profit can be substantial.

Disciplined profit objectives and disciplined stop losses preserve your account from massive drawdowns and bad attitudes towards trading.

Thanks for your questions, hope this helps, any other questions, don't hesitate to ask.

Good Trading !

Mechanical Day Trader
 
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Generally, if you seek advice on trading futures, the rule of thumb is, risk $1 to make $3. So, if you are trading the Mini Dow, and your goal is to make a minimum of 15 points, only risk 5 points on the stop loss. If you risk $1 to make a $1, you'll go broke fast!!

Keeping your risk at the 1:3 ratio, you can win 33% of the time and still break even (not counting commissions).

Are these just arbitrary figures used to support your theory? Lets say someone risks $1 to make $1 and instead of a meagre 33% win rate they have a win rate >70% !? :-0

...let me guess, you've read McDonell Doglasss'sss book (or whatever his name is :rolleyes:)
 
hi new trader-
thanks for taking the time to repIy.
i think the 90 % is a guide as to the systems accuracy if traded manaIIy,but i am not sure about that,
i know from his records that he has been about 85 %-this is on day trades-he said 90 % was the record on the night system,
wouId an automated system have a much Iower rate in your opinion?
he has traded taking 2 ,3 and 4 point Iosses over rhe past 2-3 months since i have started to foIIow his trading-
it has never gone to 15-this was the maximum he said that he wouId use but it is very rare that he does-the reasoning fotr 15 points -i am not so sure-as i said earIier i need to go over to meet with hima nd pose aII these queries-
thanks again for trhe comments-brian

When I think of 'Automated' system I think of a threshold system where absolutely no discretion is applied. So yes, to me it is very hard to believe that he can get a 90% win rate from such as system. There is no reason for me to doubt that HE can get an 85% win rate in his discretionary trading.
 
hi new
yes-i agree,where the historical win percentage is high,surely one can afford to use different sets of rules-even at a 50 % win rate as you say all the figures change drastically-


rei
Are these just arbitrary figures used to support your theory? Lets say someone risks $1 to make $1 and instead of a meagre 33% win rate they have a win rate >70% !? :-0

...let me guess, you've read McDonell Doglasss'sss book (or whatever his name is :rolleyes:)
 
hi new

hi new -
thanks for that clarification
-brian
When I think of 'Automated' system I think of a threshold system where absolutely no discretion is applied. So yes, to me it is very hard to believe that he can get a 90% win rate from such as system. There is no reason for me to doubt that HE can get an 85% win rate in his discretionary trading.
 
know the basics, trade by them

Are these just arbitrary figures used to support your theory? Lets say someone risks $1 to make $1 and instead of a meagre 33% win rate they have a win rate >70% !? :-0

...let me guess, you've read McDonell Doglasss'sss book (or whatever his name is :rolleyes:)

You are a "legendary trader" with over a thousand posts on this forum, and you are not aware of the 1:3 risk/reward ratio in futures trading? How many automated systems have you backtested in Tradestation or a similar platform?

I've been around Tradestation since version 4.0 - risking $1 to make $3 is a typical standard to start backtesting any automated system. From there, you adjust your automated program to a better win ratio.

I would refer you to John Murphy, the Dean of Technical Analysis for the past 20 years regarding risk/reward ratios, or maybe become a CTA, you'll learn a lot about risk/reward! :cheesy:

If someone is risking $1 to make a $1, that is not trading, that is scalping, imo. Hey, if it works go ahead and do it, but that's not trading in my book. Futures Trading to me is making a few winning trades using high probability setups and receiving a great return for your risk and your time. With the Dow moving 110 points plus per intraday trend (and it does it 2x daily), I am not taking one point on the Dow and getting out!

The Mechanical Day Trader
 
How many automated systems have you backtested in Tradestation or a similar platform?



In total, precisely 0, none, ziltch, zip...etc

How many successful discretionary trades have you made in your life?

I've been around Tradestation since version 4.0 - risking $1 to make $3 is a typical standard to start backtesting any automated system. From there, you adjust your automated program to a better win ratio.

How many successful discretionary trades have you made since version 4.0?

I would refer you to John Murphy, the Dean of Technical Analysis for the past 20 years regarding risk/reward ratios, or maybe become a CTA, you'll learn a lot about risk/reward! :cheesy:

Why do you think I need to read another book? Instead of reading books, why don't you learn to read the market, like I did and continue to do :idea:

If someone is risking $1 to make a $1, that is not trading, that is scalping, imo. Hey, if it works go ahead and do it, but that's not trading in my book.

Does it really matter what you decide to call it? I'm sure Warren Buffet considers anything less than 5 years as scalping.

Futures Trading to me is making a few winning trades using high probability setups and receiving a great return for your risk and your time. With the Dow moving 110 points plus per intraday trend (and it does it 2x daily), I am not taking one point on the Dow and getting out!

The Mechanical Day Trader

Who says I disagree? When I enter a trade I can't be 100% certain if it's going to result in a loss or a profit, nor can I be certain how much profit. Do you see? This is why risk/reward ratio is something only mechanical traders talk about. I talk about proficiency because that's what matters and that is what makes money. Proficiency :idea:
 
Reward must outweigh the Risk

how many discretionary trades have I made? -- can't count..but lots...I've been doing the mini-Dow for about 2 years; I did the Forex before for about 3 months.

I trade the Mini-Dow because it is a manipulated market and can be pretty easily discerned mechanically (with low risk) as to what the future direction is and how far it will go in that direction.

The S & P is much harder (for me to trade), and I haven't paid attention to it for about 5 years since I have been trading the Dow.

Scalping and Trading are mutually exclusive in my book. Scalping (to me) means you don't have confidence in staying with your trading decision (and I was not confident trading the S & P intraday, so I can relate) a longer time to get a substantial reward. Trading is having confidence in how and why and where the market has reversed and staying with your trading decision so you net a substantial reward a fair amount of the time, without risking the Farm or Barn.

The Mechanical Day Trader

EDIT: Here's this morning's trade...happens almost every day, same time (direction might be different, LOL!!) Risk is 5 ticks or less. Profit was 97 ticks. Time in trade 75 minutes for the second entry, 100 minutes for the first entry. This trade uses one of the 3 causes of all reversals (up) in the futures market (imo). If it doesn't fit one of those 3, I don't take the trade.
 

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8/5 Mini Dow Trade Entry particulars

These trade entries occurred at the open and during the first 90 minutes of trading.

> First Long entry @ Market Open 8:30 (Chicago time) -net about 115 points ($575 per contract)
> Second Long entry @ 8:50 - net about 110 points ($550 per contract)
> Third Long entry @ 9:37 - net about 55 points ($275 per contract)

Profit & Loss Statement for first two hours of Mini Dow Session: $1400 /group of 3 contracts

The Mechanical Day Trader
 

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8/5 Mini Dow Trade Long Exits, Likely Reversal Down (Entry)

This is posted almost realtime -- reversal was at 12:27 pm ET on the Mini Dow. Hold on for the downstroke, if it turns into a sweet trade (great), if it goes back into a bullish trading range, you would close the short, reverse and go long, expecting higher highs.

After you initiate a reversal (short) after exiting, use the current Orange line value at the time of your entry -as your stop loss (+1 tick) - let's keep it simple!

Since we're in a bear market, probability - wise this will likely be a decent 40 to 80 point downtrend. That's what makes Futures fun! nothing is guaranteed but the upside can be great!


The Mechanical Day Trader
 

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40 minutes after first short entry; next Short occurs

Absence of higher highs (over a period of a certain time) signify the end of the Uptrend that started at market open and had gained in excess of 100 Mini Dow Points. Traders that take the second short can likely expect a 40 to 80 point move down if a downtrend occurs. If the market stays in a trading range, a 15 to 20 profit is taken on the first contract, on 2nd and 3rd contracts traders hold out for a downtrend, otherwise a exit is taken at breakeven or a small profit.

The Mechanical Day Trader

EDIT: Market stayed in Trading Range, reversed at coequal Blue Cycle Lows (always a buy signal) - traders reversed and were long for the higher highs @ 12:25 Chicago. Market went from 11470 to 11500 in twenty minutes; Since you're still in a trading range, you took profits at 11500 on your first contract and are suspicous about staying in longer on your multiple contracts.
 

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@ 1400 ET I am done for the day regarding market commentary. -- Market has retraced a 4 day high, likely trading range or lower lows the rest of the day... :)

Regards,

The Mechanical Day Trader
 
@ 1405 a pretty sell signal is printed ; -- there is the FOMC announcement at 14:10 (I forgot) or or so; wise to exit the market before the FOMC announcement or put a large stop o your long trade then exit at the higher high.

Good trading and have a great day !

Regards,

The Mechanical Day Trader
 
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