Elliott Wave International

[copper03]

Elliott Wave International "FREE WEEK"

In attempt to attract new subscribers, Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave International offers a Free Week to interested traders and investors.

At times Prechter and team's wave analysis can be quitre contrarian. Now is one of those times. See for example their chart showing a similar pattern of Dow of 1987 and today's S&P !! Have we reached the apex?

See web link:
http://www.elliottwave.com/

 

[tom346smith]

Pechter's Elliot Wave chart.

Great chart, thanks for posting it on the board. It certainly made me think. In 1985, the G7 met to bring down the value of the dollar. Spring 1986 saw the bond market turn down a bit but nothing much happened until the Fed hiked rates in Sept !987. The smart guys got out or went short at this time but others stayed in, they had become conditioned to buy on the dips.

History rarely repeats exactly but its pretty close so we who study TA can get some usefull insights into the future. If the market followed P/E ratios and the like, it would be already half this level so something else is driving it, a wall of money looking for a home. Markets always surprise, they go higher than you think and also lower. When this one cracks, make sure you are short, I had to cover yesterday but will short it again at hopefully higher levels. Keynes is supposed to have said, " Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

I look forward to reading other posting and musings about this chart. Good trading

 

[bonsai]

nice chart
now, what does it mean when we get a divergence between the two ?

 

[waqr]

I'll bet that Prechter has been bearish since March and when the market does eventually turn down he'll be the GURU one more time.

 

[stevet]

the problem with analysis about what a market is going to do - is that you might be right - but in seeking the trade to take advantage of it - you might find - as most do - that you are early to the trade and by the time you are stopped out a few times - any profit potential has been wiped out or you just arnt up for the fight anymore and miss out on the whole move when it starts

the big players in long term trading positions tend to take a position and dont place stops - but they have the finance to put up the margin calls and are happy to do it - but that game seems to just be getting harder and harder

there are good traders who have held positions for years since the bear started - but we are talking a handful here - but in reality - they have screwed themselves as they dont want to add to the position or take opposing positions - so they are now screwed and have lost small fortunes in missed trading opportunities over the years and the great feeling of having commited heavily to a position that panned out is now not making up for the frustration they know they have lost

when a market is up - its easy to call it down - it will go down in the end - and when its down - easy to call an up - but the money is made by going long in a high market and going short on a down market -just dont try and screw every last cent out of it!

 

[mully]

Steve:
Could not agree more with your last comment "when a market is up - its easy to call it down - it will go down in the end - and when its down - easy to call an up". Finding patterns that appear to suppport your hope is plainly wishful thinking. EW is dangerous in that it apparently gives us the tools to support those hopes. If you can use it objectively and only accept its view on life when it supports actual market moves-great. However, I find people use it as a crux for justifying wishes/hopes etc. It can become a dangerous dependance.

 

[madasafish]

"I'll bet that Prechter has been bearish since March and when the market does eventually turn down he'll be the GURU one more time."

Too right! Prechter has been calling it down almsot every month. Now history says 3rd year of Presidential term is 99.9% certain to go up - free cheap money to bribe electorate to vote for the incumbent.

IMO Elliott Wave is best classed with snake oil, the Souuth Sea Bubble, and palm readers...

 

[Les Battersby]

At times Prechter and team's wave analysis can be quitre contrarian. Now is one of those times. See for example their chart showing a similar pattern of Dow of 1987 and today's S&P !!

Prechter has been in cash since 1987 :cheesy:

Anyone who trades the recommendations of the buffoon Hochberg in the Short Term Update would be bust many times over ie gold would crash below $200/oz now nudging $400/oz

 

[ChartMan]

Mully

Finding patterns that appear to support your hope is plainly wishful thinking

That's the problem! It's called curve fitting.
Finding patterns and basing an analysis on those patterns and past experience is a different matter. BUT, I believe the longer the time scale, then the less this argument holds. The elliot wave chart posted is pure chance. It's current likely outcome has no dependence or relevance on the prior waves, no matter how similar they look. NOW if it was two weeks ago, or two months ago, then perhaps there would be some relevance. I do firmly believe in the broad statement that "history repeats itself", but not from 50 years ago, and not across such a wide timescale. A bull flag across half an hour still has the same likely outcome as a bull flag back in those days.

 

[china white]

not intending to knock EWI off, Mr Prechter has been preaching on the short side since Dec 2002. I vividly remember his post back in Feb 2003 called "Your last chance to get on the train" - departing for the basement of coz. I wud luv to know if he sticks to his posts in his own trading, and if so, what is his return since Dec 2002.

As CM rightly pointed out, the last 20 min of trading has more relevance to yr trading decisions than 20 analogies from decades ago. U may recall I recently posted (under "Trading ES - November") a Dow chart from the 30ies, which bears striking similarity to what the mrkts hv bn doing since 2000, and which wud "suggest" a very flat 2004 at present levels, and a massive rally in Q2 of 2005. What's the trading value of such a post? NADA It is good as some food for thought, and lays out a POSSIBLE scenario which once played out in history under similar circumstances. That is it!!!! 20 min of trading on Monday morning can completely negate this scenario. What wud u rather be tuned to?

Trade what u r seeing happen, not the wave count in your mind, or some fossil graph from the past

 

[troyresearch]

Fyi, Elliott Wave International has just repeated its free week. If anyone wants any of the 5 reports but can no longer get, send me a PM and I'll email them over.

So any opinions on EWI's Flash Alerts Service (http://www.elliottwave.com/info/flash/oco.aspx?code=tlh) - a stunning USD 6,990 per yeat (non-refundable), with no data about historical performance.

 

[sean01]

haven't tried it but $7K per yr- don't think so.