the-marketfighter
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On last days closures we can ipotize 3 different scenarios:
1) since 3/9/2009 a bear market rally is going on and still not finished. If it is right the statistical reference, or, in other words, the most similar historical trend, it would be the adjustment that we had during the down trend of 1929-1932: BLUE LINE. The mutual relation index is 76.85% that indicates this is a possible assumption but, as you can see from the graph, the last market movement (RED LINE) seems to remove this assumption.
2) Since 3/9/2009 a new long-term up-trend is already on. If so, the most probable path, set up with the previous historical up-trends (since the beginning of the century), is the one in GREEN LINE. The mutual relation index is almost 97% to indicate a strong explanatory ability of the former rises, and so an high probability to be effectively in the “next” up-trend. If so, the expectation for the index is for a possible slight drop in the 8200 points and then re-allocates to 8700 in the next 25 days of trading.
3) Since 3/9/2009 to 6/12/2009 a bear market rally phase and since 6/12/2009 recovery of a long-term down-trend. There are too few emphases to deepen this assumption, that nowadays we can just mention but further we’ll be able to deepen.
The second assumption is today the most probable, at least from a statistical point of view.
1) since 3/9/2009 a bear market rally is going on and still not finished. If it is right the statistical reference, or, in other words, the most similar historical trend, it would be the adjustment that we had during the down trend of 1929-1932: BLUE LINE. The mutual relation index is 76.85% that indicates this is a possible assumption but, as you can see from the graph, the last market movement (RED LINE) seems to remove this assumption.
2) Since 3/9/2009 a new long-term up-trend is already on. If so, the most probable path, set up with the previous historical up-trends (since the beginning of the century), is the one in GREEN LINE. The mutual relation index is almost 97% to indicate a strong explanatory ability of the former rises, and so an high probability to be effectively in the “next” up-trend. If so, the expectation for the index is for a possible slight drop in the 8200 points and then re-allocates to 8700 in the next 25 days of trading.
3) Since 3/9/2009 to 6/12/2009 a bear market rally phase and since 6/12/2009 recovery of a long-term down-trend. There are too few emphases to deepen this assumption, that nowadays we can just mention but further we’ll be able to deepen.
The second assumption is today the most probable, at least from a statistical point of view.
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