Dow Intraday charts 24/11 - 28/11

[tradesmart]

I see that the futs have headed north backing off at the upper trendline at 9690 - breakout today?!

According to the historical statistics, Thanksgiving week is very often 'up'........

But the progression this year has generally bucked the trend, so I'm not totally convinced..........!

 

[sidinuk]

I did warn about the potential for whipsaws on Friday due to options expiry.

Moving to today. Monday's are very often trend days. Also narrow range days (like Friday) are often followed by a range expansion.

One warning against the good trend day is that the market looks to be gapping up and normally a nice trend day begins very quietly with a narrow opening range.

As tradesmart has identified, thanksgiving week is normally up so maybe the gap is as a result of anticipating that. If so we could see a 'pop and drop'.

 

[mombasa]

yup, get ready to short if 9700 fails

 

[One Eyed Shark]

If there ever was a day that confirmed CM's magic 32 as S/R surely this is it.

Are there any clues in RSI/CCI to suggest which way this will break ? as I see them they are coming off very overbought conditions to provide ND, is this relable ?

 

[mombasa]

well, we've had the 3ND divergence and it is slowly dropping - hugging the 32 and 100MA at the mo - but RSI / Price ratios look weak - dunno - maybe stuck in a range till EOD - wait for a clear 100MA break - I reckon.

 

[mombasa]

i'm bored - gone short at 9730 with stop at 9743 - think I can see a triangle but not 100% certain.

 

[tradesmart]

This looks quite strong to me with 20ish points pullback with RSI bottoming out at 25 on the 1min chart.

Went long at breakout of upper trendline at 9690 and still holding.

Will take a view when the evening move happens - I've seen it strike north or tank in this scenario........

 

[One Eyed Shark]

M.

Clear ( though small )bullish triangle printing on futures (YM ) from 17:20 which would give a target on the cash index c9740

 

[fazalv]

RSI RS switch anyone?


Looks tempting.

 

[mombasa]

Tradesmart, oes - my short's going really well then - NOT !

ooh hang on - might just be able to close at even - damn missed it as i was typing.

nope - closed for +1

looks too strong to stay short ......

will wait for a while.

 

[tradesmart]

Mombasa - I operate a 'break-even/minimal profit' rule myself; always preferable to any sort of loss.............

seems to be a triangle shaping-up now, the implications of which will soon be clear........ :?:

edit:- 9720ish has been a solid S/R level before.......

 

[lockstock]

Looks like the bulls have it back mi thinks- probably going nowhere tonight, consolidation at the highs.( Ha! Get ready to short)

Resistance @ 9750 - top of wide trading channel


Testing out prorealtime.com ( free realtime indicies for a week) not bad software neither

 

[tradesmart]

Hi LS - prorealtime looks interesting, I'll check it out!

Looking to close long shortly, I'll hang on for a mo - 9745ish looks to be the top for today (then see it fly to 9770!!!!!!!)

Regards

 

[ChartMan]

Well read Momba. Seems to be no clues for a break one way or the other. Next week, I'll try and open up the thread early so that opening comments get put in the right week...... Maybe Sharky or Ftse will transfer today's comments onto this week's thread. It'll take me a week to figure out how to do it.

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Merge the threads, then split them.

 

[ChartMan]

Go on then, I bet you can't do that. :cheesy:
ps , wait til I've finished , please.

 

[ChartMan]

Dow Intraday charts 24/11 - 28/06

Had to take a quick swipe at the comp without thinking. Looks like I'll be a mile out.
The expanding triangle 9600 - 9725 looks like it's going to provide a nice turnaround. 9850 target. I've drawn in some "guess" channel lines . There is absolutely no way of knowing if they are right... but they look reasonable. You have to start somewhere with a best guess. There is one thing in their favour and that is where two of the lines meet at 9710 at the close today. Note also that the new middle uptrend line is passing through the opening pullback today.
This will give us 9720 support and 9780 resistance (roughly). Don't forget to project forwards the trendlines during tomorrow.

 

[ChartMan]

Short and sweet. The open provided some nice points, if you could get on board..... The weak RSI pullback, and the fact that it didn't make 64 should have made the decision easier. No open trade is going to be an easy decision..... Clear cut ND top and out for 40 odd points. The rest of the day should have been spent knitting or drinking tea. As Mombassa pointed out, waiting for an entry looked to be a waste of time- and so it turned out. Stuck at 32 and the 100MA plus RSI ratio showing total weakness in both directions. Closing at HOD looks a good setup for more up tomorrow, not that I'm counting on that....

 

[ChartMan]

Skim, big Mwah. Good job someone here knows how to work a 'puter.

 

[sidinuk]

Well, we got the big move on Monday as expected.

Statistically after a range expansion we would expect a consolidation day on Tuesday. However most of the move yesterday was early and then we consolidated for much of the rest of the day.

I'd expect the opening few hours to be choppy with an increased likelihood of a breakout later in the session.