Dow Intraday charts 23/06 - 27/06

[ChartMan]

A dull and boring day...... Short and go home : Waiting for the PD to deliver was a worthless excercise. It happens. It stayed in force until 17:00 and even then there was no reversal, faling ti make the higher high at 9070, instead just wavering about the magic 9064 and going nowhere.
A second down channel is now in the offering and a distict possibility of getting a 4 slope change top.That could drag the index way down to 8700.

 

[ChartMan]

10 min chart.... RSI and CCI down channel both at resistance.At RSI 50 there's plenty of room for a big drop to complete the 4th slope change in the price. The price also has a nice "rolling curved top", a common feature of a longer term dow top in the 10 min chart.
On the other hand it could just as easily break the channel. I'll just sit on the fence and wait till the DOW show's it's hand. 9100 up 9040 lose = down. Pre market should hold the key.

 

[ChartMan]

So I waited for the DOW to show it's hand and off we went. Three things from today's action. No Lower channel formed, maintaining the current channel. The rolling top has been broken- hard to see, but it has. Lastly,no fourth slope change. Now I'm no expert but this looks like the behavour of a pullback rather than a right good tanking . So now I'll be looking for a channel break and a move back into an uptrend. When it does, I'll be expecting it to follow the new support line I've drawn in.
Clear R/S switch in RSI, breaking the channel resistance. I forgot to mention last night the price drop out of the channel yesterday was not followed by RSI = pos. divergence.

 

[ChartMan]

9100 for the long it was, althought the pullback at 9080 gaave a good opportunity for an early entry with reasonable confidence.The pullback didn't quite make target of 9110, but was so close it didn't warrant a close, especially as 9100 was being tested in reality, as opposed to the target. nit picking really as in practice all targets should have a few points or lea way. 2 in this case.
The follow on target missed by a mile (9170)... and a short tern ND was an out. The next call from China in the chat room was spot on, but it failed to deliver, signalling the way ahead. Sure it delivered a short term drop, but I would have expected more on a down day. I love these confirmations of an up day.The following triangle (s) produced and delivered T1 and T2 before setiing up an ND top into the close.
Going long early on would have given a steady 50 points for the day. Not exactly a star performance, but steady and easy none the less. Maximum deviation from the 100MA was 18 points. Definitely a day for those with patience........without that, it could have been a traumatic case of severe whipsawing.

 

[ChartMan]

Sorry. just a short one tonight... The 10 min chart has gone back to channel support, thhanks to Greeny. A poor day to start with no one wanting to do anything until Greeny time. From the charts, it looks as if the news got leaked before it hit the headlines, as the price dropped at 19:02 having sat stubbornly at 9140 all day.
Here is a salutory warning about being in a trade when a major news item is released. Those on SB would never have got out . As usual , though, there was a substantial recovery. Whether or not you had the stomach to ride an 80 point loss on the hope that it would bounce is entirely for you to decide. Just remeber that these things happen so fast, nad the SB bias is so wild, you'd have no time to collect your thoughts. Even if you did, it would be far too late. The answer is STAY OUT, or gamble 1/10 normal stake for a laugh.....

 

[rossored]

Hi CM -

I actually took yesterdays pullback at about 1830hrs from 9130-odd to 9140-odd (circled) as confirmation that a break of a trendline had taken place and went short at this point with it. It obviously it worked out okay - figured that I was in far enough ahead of the news spike to change around if it all went t-up... but was I wrong to do this? Is my trendline coming off the previous lows a valid one or am I seeing something that isnt really there??

Your input ( as always ) gratefully received!

Cheers,

PS Those of you who complained about the size of my last chart posting will notice the much-reduced size of this one...

 

[ChartMan]

No, your trend line is spot on.....as was your decision to go short, but I still maintain that the safest policy around news is to be out of the market. You , and anyone else short were fortunate.

 

[JonnyT]

The trend line shown is correct, but what about the prior one that was broken on the 24th ?

Was that traded (and failed)

It's easy looking back at such a method, but nigh on impossible in reality.

JonnyT

 

[ChartMan]

Is that the trend line on the 24th June that goes from 9200 to 9050? If so, it's one of those that are generated with hindsight and of no use for trading. It merely serves to help analyse the situation.

 

[JonnyT]

No, it was a long trend line, placed using Trader Vics proscribed method. i.e to the pivot low prior to the highest high without breaking any lows.

i.e at a steeper angle than the one shown.

JonnyT

 

[ChartMan]

First trade a loser, going long on breaking the 100MA. Why? Because it was the development of a bear flag and you should have been expecting a drop. You should have exited the trade at 9020 as the lower support trend line was broken. To the letter of the rules, you should have stayed in until 100MA - 20 at 9010.... You can't win them all and you must admit to being wrong and recognising it as soon as possible.
Next entry after the inverse H&S delivers T1 and over the 100MA . Entry between 9020 and 9030... notice resistance at the magic no 32 area( 34/35 to be exact). The triangle around that, more clearly seen in CCI delivered to T2 but faltered. This looked as if it was going to develop into a mid move bull triangle, but failed. The result ended up as an ND top and an out for 40 odd points.Sideways from there on looking for another entry which came as the price finally broke through 64. No big gains to be had here as the price developed into another ND top very quickly and out for a mere 15 points. Th drop to 9050 could have developed into a nice short entry, but wasn't to be. A possible short entry at 20:12? It was a pullback to the 100MA BUT RSI was at 30 so very little room for down side.

 

[ChartMan]

Good divergence in CCI over 4 days should lead to more upside...

 

[china white]

CM,

many thx again.... yr analysis is truly good. if I knew u in person - I'd b buying pints non-stop mate!

 

[ChartMan]

So you'd follow me then?..... 9450 to close this week. Missed by a country mile.
Just another short one tonight.... For those that have difficulty in recognising RS switches, today we have what looks like 3 possibles, but none fit the rules..... We just have RSI running channels and driving the price down.
One point to note really in the bear flag towards the close. There was more than the expected norm of 3 cycles. The last cycle cofirmed the bear status in that in didn't make channel resistance. This "quirk" can be a great early indicator and is not common. The best place to find one of these is in a triangle ( bull or bear) . You can get in early, and add on the breakout..... IF it goes pear-shaped, you won't be far away from knowing you are wrong, minimising losses.
T3 never made it, coming off short pos divergence to cover the short at 8980 for a fairly easy 90 odd points to add to the earlier 50 or so.

 

[ChartMan]

I'll finish this thread here as it's the last day of the month.... Good tade with some nice range. double PD bottom that lead to an excellent 100 point move- almost. A top here? Well, we just broke the channel resistance and had a double top so yes. The down side? Confirmed with the 3 pullbacks to the 10 min downtrend resistance line and just above the 100MA. Then down to a short divergence and close. Nice sting in the tail!

 

[ChartMan]

This looks to be ready to turn... The last two lows failed to make support..... ignoring the fact that we ran out of time tonight to get a clear confirmation...But there is a clear slope change in RSI support. Is this contrarian? Popular opinion suggest a sell off into July....

 

[ChartMan]

Well it was allright till the bad news came out

 

[JE2000]

Chartman,

Where do you get your charts?

 

[ChartMan]

Sierrachart.com + MyTrack.com for data feed