does downgrading to lower timeframes leads to much more profits ?

[Commodity_Trader]

as we know , the most successful traders have 40 % or less profits on a year.and most of them trade on h1 /h4/ daily timeframes.so if someone have an edge and trades that system on 5 minute timeframe (say 10 trades on average in a day on 6 trading instruments), theorically he has much more opportunity factor than a higher time frame trader .while a trader can have 15 -20 trades in a month such a intraday trader can have at least 200 trades per month.the profits are much less but opportunity factor leverages the overall profit. am i right ?

all of the top traders that i read about them ,were traders of least hourly or daily timeframe. do u know any intraday top trader ? (5 min or 15 min) (

 

[malaguti]

as we know , the most successful traders have 40 % or less profits on a year.and most of them trade on h1 /h4/ daily timeframes.so if someone have an edge and trades that system on 5 minute timeframe (say 10 trades on average in a day on 6 trading instruments), theorically he has much more opportunity factor than a higher time frame trader .while a trader can have 15 -20 trades in a month such a intraday trader can have at least 200 trades per month.the profits are much less but opportunity factor leverages the overall profit. am i right ?

all of the top traders that i read about them ,were traders of least hourly or daily timeframe. do u know any intraday top trader ? (5 min or 15 min) (

hi Commodity, this almost seems like a rhetorical question..if the most succesful traders are trading 1-4hr timeframes (however I heard it was higher than that actually and the most successful dont day trade at all), dont you think they would have got there having gone through this same thought process?
Having arrived at the most optimal, you would rather look at something different.
shall we see if the wheel can be better designed perhaps

Its true you can better define your entries for the higher time frames by going lower, however there is a point where you cant keep on going down before you just start getting too much noise. Hence why its possible that this 1-4 hr timeframe came in.

 

[cablemonster]

as we know , the most successful traders have 40 % or less profits on a year.and most of them trade on h1 /h4/ daily timeframes.so if someone have an edge and trades that system on 5 minute timeframe (say 10 trades on average in a day on 6 trading instruments), theorically he has much more opportunity factor than a higher time frame trader .while a trader can have 15 -20 trades in a month such a intraday trader can have at least 200 trades per month.the profits are much less but opportunity factor leverages the overall profit. am i right ?

all of the top traders that i read about them ,were traders of least hourly or daily timeframe. do u know any intraday top trader ? (5 min or 15 min) (

there is no correct answer to this. you profit is a function of your expectation per trade and the number of times you can apply your edge. The time frame involved will likely alter the number of times you apply your edge.

 

[counter_violent]

as we know , the most successful traders have 40 % or less profits on a year.and most of them trade on h1 /h4/ daily timeframes.so if someone have an edge and trades that system on 5 minute timeframe (say 10 trades on average in a day on 6 trading instruments), theorically he has much more opportunity factor than a higher time frame trader .while a trader can have 15 -20 trades in a month such a intraday trader can have at least 200 trades per month.the profits are much less but opportunity factor leverages the overall profit. am i right ?

all of the top traders that i read about them ,were traders of least hourly or daily timeframe. do u know any intraday top trader ? (5 min or 15 min) (

I once did a study of green v red candles in a strongly trending instrument over quite a long time period and also on different candle time frames.

All time frames sub 1 day showed up v down very near to 50/50.
The daily comparison only showed 53% v 47%

It was only when you got to weekly that the figures improved.

Go figure.

 

[wackypete2]

Price is the same no matter what time frame you are looking at (or chart type). Your interpretation of what is happening is what's important.

Peter

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I read a book once that said money was made from the sitting and not from the trading.

Warren Buffet sat on his trades for life and look what happened to him ?

 

[Commodity_Trader]

dont you think they would have got there having gone through this same thought process?
Its true you can better define your entries for the higher time frames by going lower, however there is a point where you cant keep on going down before you just start getting too much noise.

hi malaguti , i think they have not got there having same thought,cuz first technical analysis is rather new compared to other techniques, second traditional analyst still dont consider T.A and fundamental analysis doesnt work on intraday timeframe,third most of T.A science is inherited from stock trading and looking in daily prices because as a human our timeframe is daily (from morning to night),what u mentioned is just like dr. elder triple screen method for finding best entries . it works well on stocks . but as a future trader i think even it is possible to trade at 1 minute timeframe ,noise is on daily bar charts too . it is our mind that removes unpleasant parts and stick to favorable parts of charts which may be trends.

. The time frame involved will likely alter the number of times you apply your edge.

,
markets are range 70 % of times and trend 30 % of times. this is the same in daily charts and this is the same in 5 minute charts.it will certainly increase number of times you apply your edge but a daily trader can follow many many markets with less stress in a whole working day while a intraday trader may have maximum to 6 instrument on 15 or 5 time frame.

All time frames sub 1 day showed up v down very near to 50/50.
The daily comparison only showed 53% v 47%
It was only when you got to weekly that the figures improved.
Go figure.

i did the same thing and almost the same results.

Price is the same no matter what time frame you are looking at (or chart type). Your interpretation of what is happening is what's important.
Peter

peter i agree with u ,market is fractal .means it repeats itself and it is similar to itself. why ? because we, as people who make the market ,we are fractal .we repeat ourselves and in higher level history repeats itself. if an edge can make a
approximately 10 % return per month on 4h timeframe it should be capable of generating 10 % return on 15 minute timeframe on a single day. there are almost same amount of candles in 1 month of 4h compared to one inraday on 15 minute timeframe.of course i mean 10 % retun on what we risk ,which in h4 is much greater than 15 minute.(near 15 times ).
so do u know any top trader with intraday timeframe ?

I read a book once that said money was made from the sitting and not from the trading.
Warren Buffet sat on his trades for life and look what happened to him ?

i think he meant let your profits run and importance of patience , not mentioning the timeframe.cuz in intraday trading you should wait too.

 

[cablemonster]

markets are range 70 % of times and trend 30 % of times. this is the same in daily charts and this is the same in 5 minute charts.it will certainly increase number of times you apply your edge but a daily trader can follow many many markets with less stress in a whole working day while a intraday trader may have maximum to 6 instrument on 15 or 5 time frame.

this 70-80% ranging 20-30% trending is often quoted on websites but I don't think it is helpful to know that. what is important is to either be able to trade in all market conditions or to isolate certain market conditions trading those and staying out of the other market conditions.

 

[Brumby]

as we know , the most successful traders have 40 % or less profits on a year.and most of them trade on h1 /h4/ daily timeframes.so if someone have an edge and trades that system on 5 minute timeframe (say 10 trades on average in a day on 6 trading instruments), theorically he has much more opportunity factor than a higher time frame trader .while a trader can have 15 -20 trades in a month such a intraday trader can have at least 200 trades per month.the profits are much less but opportunity factor leverages the overall profit. am i right ?

all of the top traders that i read about them ,were traders of least hourly or daily timeframe. do u know any intraday top trader ? (5 min or 15 min) (

The conversation also changes depending on whether you are a retail or institutional trader. Tim Morge mentioned once that it took him a few hours to liquidate his EURUSD position because of the size he carries.

If you are successful, you will eventually find your own trading time frame specific to your own strength and constraints. If you are chasing dollars you can always increase your position size. I would like to see research supporting a particular point of view or else it is just individual opinions driven by personal reasons.

 

[Commodity_Trader]

this 70-80% ranging 20-30% trending is often quoted on websites but I don't think it is helpful to know that. what is important is to either be able to trade in all market conditions or to isolate certain market conditions trading those and staying out of the other market conditions.

why it is not helpful ? when we know this fact ,if i am a trend follower , i know that my system hit rate may be less than 30 %, so i try to cut my losses short during those 70 % rest percent & still have a positive expectancy system .

 

[Commodity_Trader]

The conversation also changes depending on whether you are a retail or institutional trader. Tim Morge mentioned once that it took him a few hours to liquidate his EURUSD position because of the size he carries.

If you are successful, you will eventually find your own trading time frame specific to your own strength and constraints. If you are chasing dollars you can always increase your position size. I would like to see research supporting a particular point of view or else it is just individual opinions driven by personal reasons.

brumby , u mentioned a good point ,liquidating huge positions in lower timeframe is hard,so it may be the reason why institutional traders may not use it.i use 5 minute for trading.so i look to see if any other people use.

 

[Shakone]

why it is not helpful ? when we know this fact ,if i am a trend follower , i know that my system hit rate may be less than 30 %, so i try to cut my losses short during those 70 % rest percent & still have a positive expectancy system .

Because it isn't even true. It's just vague and unhelpful. It can be trending for one person (who is looking at a particular timeframe) and ranging for another. So which is it doing? Trending or ranging?

that kind of statement can only have some meaning when you clearly define what it means to be trending (and your definition may be different from others).

 

[Brumby]

Because it isn't even true. It's just vague and unhelpful. It can be trending for one person (who is looking at a particular timeframe) and ranging for another. So which is it doing? Trending or ranging?

that kind of statement can only have some meaning when you clearly define what it means to be trending (and your definition may be different from others).

So is truth and helpfulness as it is rather subjective.

 

[Shakone]

So is truth and helpfulness as it is rather subjective.

Yep.

 

[Pat494]

Surely longer time frames usually equal bigger differences in highs/lows. So stops/targets are likely to be bigger and thus profits/losses are likely to be bigger.

 

[the hare]

Surely longer time frames usually equal bigger differences in highs/lows. So stops/targets are likely to be bigger and thus profits/losses are likely to be bigger.

Conversely, larger stops are generally offset by smaller position sizes, so in actual dollar amounts, profits are no bigger. And of course, from a technical perspective my set up might occur 6 times a day on a 1 minute chart, but only 6 times per decade on a weekly chart. (Not that I bother these day with technical set ups)

However, if i did, I know which timeframe I'd rather trade

Then factor in consecutive losses. I think my longest streak has been around 14 trades, which for me was over and done with in a few days. If trading weekly charts I might have had to endure 30 consecutive losing years, which i suspect would be a little more problematic

 

[Brumby]

However, if i did, I know which timeframe I'd rather trade

Eventually we find the appropriate comfort zone that fits our lifestyle and personality - it is not just about chasing trade opportunities and dollars.

 

[Commodity_Trader]

It can be trending for one person (who is looking at a particular timeframe) and ranging for another. So which is it doing? Trending or ranging?

that kind of statement can only have some meaning when you clearly define what it means to be trending (and your definition may be different from others).

in T.A there is only two kind of trends , 1>ordinary trend with successive higher highs & higher lows 2 >accelerated trend (rapid price move with at least 45 degrees angle ).the first one occurs 30 % of time in ANY timeframe.for example if you observe a year on daily bars,on average ,30 % of time it is trending . if u see a trading day on 5 minute chart, on average, 30 % of time it is trending too.the fact that u said is not in contrast with what i said.

Surely longer time frames usually equal bigger differences in highs/lows. So stops/targets are likely to be bigger and thus profits/losses are likely to be bigger.

of course , but what about opportunity factor ? a lower timeframe trader may have much much more opportunities than a higher timeframe trader which affects performance and final results.

Then factor in consecutive losses. I think my longest streak has been around 14 trades, which for me was over and done with in a few days. If trading weekly charts I might have had to endure 30 consecutive losing years, which i suspect would be a little more problematic

it 's a great point that u mentioned .lower timeframe has lower stress and it affects trading in significant way.

Eventually we find the appropriate comfort zone that fits our lifestyle and personality - it is not just about chasing trade opportunities and dollars.

exactly , edge and holy grail is when anyone finds a system that fits his/ her own character

 

[Shakone]

in T.A there is only two kind of trends , 1>ordinary trend with successive higher highs & higher lows 2 >accelerated trend (rapid price move with at least 45 degrees angle ).the first one occurs 30 % of time in ANY timeframe.for example if you observe a year on daily bars,on average ,30 % of time it is trending . if u see a trading day on 5 minute chart, on average, 30 % of time it is trending too.the fact that u said is not in contrast with what i said.

I don't agree there are only two kinds of trend, but anyway to what you've said:

For number 2, the angle on a typical bar chart is not scale invariant, from which it follows that the angle is irrelevant on such a chart, so we can't define trend in that way (unless we use a particular type of chart).

As for the first 1, the number of highs and lows depends on the timeframe, because a lower timeframe will often have more highs and lows which mean the trend as you've defined it, is timeframe dependent.

Lastly, you can make a choice of timeframe and define a trend, but I'm still yet to see that on every instrument on any timeframe it trends 30% of the time. Do you have proof of that?

 

[Commodity_Trader]

Lastly, you can make a choice of timeframe and define a trend, but I'm still yet to see that on every instrument on any timeframe it trends 30% of the time. Do you have proof of that?

of course there is no proof for anything in T.A . we are speaking of probabilities & not about certain events. the second type of trend is my favourable setup. which i wait for pullback of price .above gann 45 degree. which is called accelerated trend.