Deal or No Deal

[Sang Froid]

I was watching Deal or No Deal this morning and wondered.... as traders, if you'd have a plan or strategy if you were to ever go on the gameshow.

The lady that was on this morning had taken out the £50,000 and the £75,000 still had the £250,000 left and was offered £20,000. She said no deal and then proceeded to take out the £250,000 with the very next box, her target before she started was £20,000 but I suspect she got greedy, saw the £250,000 and went for it. She ended up with 10p :cheesy:

Now, if it was me on this show, I'd like to think that having traded I'd go with a target in mind say £30,000 as my T/P, as soon as I'm offered this then deal regardless of what's left. S/L would be as soon as the two biggest went so £250,000 and £75,000 I'd take the very next offer given.

It's interesting to watch this show as you can see peoples greed on a daily basis, they always push it too far and end up with nothing like the target that they wanted, they see the £250,000 and are blinded by what if, but only a very small percentage will ever reach this target and of course it's random so the chances reduce even more, no support or resistance here! I think the people that go on this see it as a once in a lifetime, the massive sum that they can win outweighs the potential loss and end up gambling, so they are offered say £20,000, see the £250,000 still up there and are essentially gambling £20,000 to make £250,000, which invariably goes wrong.

How, as a trader would you approach this show

"22 INDIVIDUALY SEALED BOXES, DEAL.... OR NO DEAL"?

 

[shadowninja]

In a bored moment, I decided to play online. Don't have a target. Get a feel for the game. You'll know by playing what is realistic for the random choice you get.

I put the strategy to test when my sister whipped out her phone with the game pre-installed. She acted like the banker. I did pretty well but she said I played really boringly...
"Ok, choose a box."
"1."
"You can pick 5 boxes... which shall I click?"
"2... 3... 4... 5... 6..."
...
"You can now pick 4 boxes... which shall I click?"
"7... 8... 9... 10..."
"You're boring."



Whereas my mum was permitted loads of goes, with relevant shouts of jubilation and swearing in Chinese, I was only allowed one go.

The mentality you have to adopt is one of wild punter: imagine you had an account of £10k and went all in with a FTSE trade. You know that if you doubled it, it was purely luck. You couldn't do it again (well, you could risk it all again but you know what I mean), so take the money and close the account. Similarly, you get one shot at the game so as soon as you feel your luck is running out, bail.

 

[maiden22]

"Now, if it was me on this show, "

I'd shoot myself.

 

[megamuel]

I'd shoot Noel Edmonds!

 

[Ambrose Ackroyd]

Take the money or open the box ?

Anybody remember Michael Miles and Take Your Pick ?

As far as Noel's offering goes, I would take any half decent cash offer by the banker and get the f*** out of that nauseating place.

 

[Sang Froid]

"Now, if it was me on this show, "

I'd shoot myself.

 

[Sang Froid]

I'd definitely do what shadownija suggested,

open boxes 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 etc... it's fricken random, does it really matter which box you open? Not like the money inside will ever change.

And what's with all the kissing and hugging if you open a box and it's got 1p inside, if it's got over £1000 you don't deserve a hug.

Besides all of this, I still watch it everyday, it's on straight after Countdown, that's a whole afternoon of fun in my book.... roll on the day I retire

 

[mb325]

As far as Noel's offering goes, I would take any half decent cash offer by the banker and get the f*** out of that nauseating place.

A foolproof plan. If only the people on the show had thought of that!

 

[Ambrose Ackroyd]

Those idiots are far too greedy.

 

[shadowninja]

Those idiots are far too greedy.

Spot on!

 

[bbmac]

It's a good example re that Lady given in your post...It's amazing how little the general public know about the laws of probabilities...ie that example saw someone gamble an unrealised profit of £20k on an outcome that was less than 50% probable...I didn't see the show but assuming she had the 250k box and a few minor ones left, say 4 boxes left in total, and a £20k offer from the banker, she did not realise that the most probable outcome was that she would lose the 250k box (ie 3 chances in 4 of losing it, only 1 chance in 4 of keeping it/actually having it) and that would result in a lower offer than the one she currently had. In other word she only had a 25% chance of retaining or getting a better offer than the oen she currently had, but a 75% chance of ending up with a worse offer....

The greed thing definately kicks in probably enhanced by the bravado they experiennce as a result of being urged on by the audience who akin to Death Race 2000 and unrealised by the player aren't actually motivated to see a big win for the player but for a dissapointment for the player, as their reward - it being twice as entertaining and far more probable. This bravado results in a death or glory approach by most players as they get to the business end of the game.

I was watching Deal or No Deal this morning and wondered.... as traders, if you'd have a plan or strategy if you were to ever go on the gameshow.

The lady that was on this morning had taken out the £50,000 and the £75,000 still had the £250,000 left and was offered £20,000. She said no deal and then proceeded to take out the £250,000 with the very next box, her target before she started was £20,000 but I suspect she got greedy, saw the £250,000 and went for it. She ended up with 10p :cheesy:

Now, if it was me on this show, I'd like to think that having traded I'd go with a target in mind say £30,000 as my T/P, as soon as I'm offered this then deal regardless of what's left. S/L would be as soon as the two biggest went so £250,000 and £75,000 I'd take the very next offer given.

It's interesting to watch this show as you can see peoples greed on a daily basis, they always push it too far and end up with nothing like the target that they wanted, they see the £250,000 and are blinded by what if, but only a very small percentage will ever reach this target and of course it's random so the chances reduce even more, no support or resistance here! I think the people that go on this see it as a once in a lifetime, the massive sum that they can win outweighs the potential loss and end up gambling, so they are offered say £20,000, see the £250,000 still up there and are essentially gambling £20,000 to make £250,000, which invariably goes wrong.

How, as a trader would you approach this show

"22 INDIVIDUALY SEALED BOXES, DEAL.... OR NO DEAL"?

 

[wackypete2]

My wife tells me every week I should submit an entry video for the show. She thinks I can win over $100,000 but I have told her my strategy countless times: If the very first offer was $25,000 or more I'd take the deal and run, if not then I'd either wait until an offer is less than 1/2 of the first offer, or double the first offer to cash in.
Yeah, I'm a trader!

Peter