Danny's Journal

[Daniel_Ball]

Hi, I've been trading for four years now and thus far only managed to wipe out one account, that was in February 2010 after that I've vastly altered the way I trade putting the emphasis on money management.

I've spent time studying various methods, Bill Williams and Timothy Morge's market geometry were particularly interesting also spent some time getting to grips with Elliot theory. I don't stick religiously to any system preferring to act discretionally looking at price action around key levels.

It's my aim to be consistently profitable for the next 6 months if I can achieve this then I intend to give up the day job and pursue my dream of trading full time. I've been profitable for 4 out of the last 6 months and managed to double my account over this period which gives me some confidence.

At the minute I'm looking at cable took a short entry today off daily 200EMA confirmed by a divergence candle on the 15min time frame. My overall bias is bullish at the minute despite poor GDP date out of the UK this week cable has rallied strongly on the premise that the ECB will restart it's bond buying program etc, and on hopes that the FED is about to unleash QE3.

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Well no fireworks over the weekend everything is pretty close to where it closed on Friday, a few headlines over the weekend hinting at German dissension over using the ECB to intervene in the bond market.

As I'm short cable this article speculating over an interest rate cut by the BOE was of particular interest, hopefully the rumour will be enough to cause a sell off or at least a dip in cable.

Slash interest rates to 0 per cent, Bank of England told - Telegraph

On the radar today is Brent a short around the 10,850 area seems like it could be a good set up should we get up there from where it stands at 10,689 at time of writing for reasons show on the chart below.

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Nothing new today sideways movement, key events this week are Draghi unavailing his plans on Thursday at 12:30GMT and the results of FOMC meeting on Wednesday. There is scope for disappointment on both counts if FED holds off on QE3 and or the ECB announces anything less than has been speculated after Draghi's bold statement last week then there could be a strong sell off.
I'm still short cable and feel comfortable holding, also considering short on DOW see chart below.

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Gone short DOW from 13,106 with a stop above yesterdays high at 13,140 target 12,944

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Closed DOW short at daily pivot for +26pips out of sheer boredom it's seems we're going to hold a tight range till tomorrow at least. Cable is grinding down toward my 15,641 target and has broken out of a H/S pattern visible on the 1hr.

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Cable short hit TP +100pips, will probably remain flat for the minute and await the inevitable volatility on Thursday pretty sure there will be a break out set up or failing that a retest when the dust settles.

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Well FOMC continued the status quo with no promise of QE3 in the immediate future, meaning the QE3 trade is still in play and QE3 rumours will be wheeled out again next time a decent down trend gets underway pfft.

Scope for disappointment from ECB today, yea sure they're gonna buy bonds didn't work last time won't work this time put whatever spin they like on it if it's just bond buying in secondary market we'll have sell off today. I'm expecting the usual rhetoric but will be sceptical of promises without substance.

I've got a pitchfork on brent that looks promising and should offer a trade at some point will update if/when I enter.

 

[Daniel_Ball]

Entered this trade not perfect set up but divergence bar swayed me, stops tight.