Daily Forex Data and Index Trading

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**Wishing everyone profitable trading.**

Under this heading, I will share the strength rankings of the major forex currencies—EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, JPY, CHF, CAD, and USD—starting from different time points, as well as the strength rankings of the 28 currency pairs formed by these currencies. We will then simplify these 28 pairs by focusing on their left and right sides, resulting in a total of 16 pairs. By using these 16 pairs for basket trading in forex indices, we will approach forex from a different perspective.

I believe this will provide new viewpoints for investors who have been involved in forex for many years. The content of the heading will solely involve information sharing.

In a leveraged market, analyzing a currency pair based on its chart and setting targets from this chart is a somewhat incomplete method. When an investor opens a trade on the EURUSD pair, the analysis of the chart only shows the strength comparison between EUR and USD. This chart merely displays the competition between EUR and USD. A more efficient analysis involves comparing the EUR index with the USD index.

The difference is that while charts show the competition between the two currencies, analyzing indices allows you to see the EUR's strength against the other 7 currencies, and similarly, the USD's strength against its 7 counterpart currencies. In essence, while charts are shaped by 1 EUR-1 USD, indices are shaped by 7 EUR-7 USD. This is essential for more efficient analysis.

Önemli bir yüzde kaybının yaşandığı her türlü ticaretin temel kuralı, kolayca erişilebilen bilgiler yerine, sunulmayan bilgilere odaklanmaktır.
(
There will be translation deficiencies in the title content. But forex loves numbers.)
 
In the table, the index values of 8 currencies, starting from 12 different days, are arranged according to their strength rankings. In the TREND column, the average of all data from these 12 days is calculated. Then, currency pairs are formed by comparing the 1st currency with the 7th and 8th currencies, and the 8th currency with the 1st and 2nd currencies. By determining the trading direction, the strongest pairs are identified at the bottom of the columns.
z1.jpg
 
In this table, there is a data analysis of 28 currency pairs, produced from the index values of 8 currencies, across 24 different time periods. In the lower table, the rankings of these values are presented.
The much more detailed Excel file only works with Office 2021 or Office 365.
Z2.jpg

Z3.jpg
 

Attachments

  • FED-Ai_2024_vTelegram.xlsx
    1.7 MB · Views: 5
As someone who has worked with these details for years, I will present a simplified version of the process within 1-2 days. I will start by providing the fundamental logic through night notes, and then we will proceed with daily, more straightforward information regarding trading methods and directions.
 
The 8 major currencies that make up the forex market are EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, JPY, CHF, CAD, and USD. The sum of the percentage changes of these 8 currencies starting from the same point always equals 0. In this situation, the market effectively requires exiting one currency to enter another. Zero can only be achieved this way. Just as the total of the 8 currencies equals 0, if EUR is 13.57, the sum of the remaining 7 currencies will be -13.57. Similarly, if EUR (13.57) + GBP (40.87) = 54.44, then the remaining AUD + NZD + JPY + CHF + CAD + USD = -54.44.
s1.jpg
 
If you sum the values of the left-side currencies in the 28 currency pairs and get xxx, then summing the values of the right-side currencies will always result in −x
s2.jpg
 
The complexity of forex is created by the zero-sum mechanism. This mechanism turns forex into an illusion. The mathematics of this illusion is detailed in the table below. Upon closer examination, you will see that the market is shaped by the competition between 28 currency pairs in a 4 vs. 4 currency contest. The mechanism that determines the market direction is the competition between EUR + GBP + AUD + NZD on one side and JPY + CHF + CAD + USD on the other. If the total value of the currencies on the left side (the green team) is higher than the total value of the currencies on the right side (the red team), it indicates that the pairs will rise. Conversely, if the right side is stronger, the pairs will fall. If the green team is stronger, placing the same amount of buy orders on all 28 pairs will result in a profit for that day, as long as the strength continues. Unlike individual pairs, which can be like a lone sheep wandering in the mountains—getting lost and fluctuating—the 28 pairs act more consistently due to herd psychology.
S3.jpg
 
The total value of the 28 currency pairs forms the forex index. The bottom row of the Excel table we shared this morning provides the index. If you look at this row, you will see that the numbers have been negative for the last 15 days. This means that if equal amounts of sell orders had been placed on all 28 pairs this morning, we could have closed the day with a profit.
s4.jpg
 
Forex'teki 28 döviz çiftini basitleştirdiğinizde ve yalnızca gerçek trend çiftlerini belirlemek istediğinizde, kural sol taraftaki 4 dövizin yalnızca sağ taraftaki 4 dövizle birleştirilebileceğidir. Dolayısıyla, EUR sol taraftaki bir dövizdir ve yalnızca JPY, CHF, CAD ve USD ile birleştirildiğinde, doğrudan forex endeksiyle hareket eden çiftler elde edersiniz. Bu, toplamda 16 çiftle sonuçlanır.
s5.jpg
 
To trade forex indices, you should open buy or sell orders of the same amount and at the same time on the following 16 pairs. The pairs to be traded are:

EURJPY
EURCHF
EURCAD
EURUSD
GBPJPY
GBPCHF
GBPCAD
GBPUSD
AUDJPY
AUDCHF
AUDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDJPY
NZDCHF
NZDCAD
NZDUSD
 
How to Read the Forex Index

  • If the EURJPY pair is falling, there is a 44% probability that the 16 pairs will also fall.
  • If both EURJPY and GBPCHF pairs are falling simultaneously, there is a 75% probability that the 16 pairs will fall.
  • If EURJPY, GBPCHF, and AUDCAD pairs are all falling simultaneously, there is a 94% probability that the 16 pairs will fall.
  • If EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDCAD, and NZDUSD pairs are all falling simultaneously, the 16 pairs will fall with a 100% probability.
  • BulutKARLI.jpg
 
By tracking these 4 pairs with their percentage impact ratios using a simple moving average on H1, H4, or D1 timeframes, you can see in the simplest terms that the market index is currently 94% in a sell position. In this case, the goal is to open sell orders of 0.01 on all 16 pairs and monitor them. This will be a much stronger analytical method compared to all previously used methods. Discover it.🧑‍🚀
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BulutKARLI 7.jpg
 
The market continues to fluctuate with the appreciation of the JPY ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. With a selling strength of 100% over 15 days and 96% daily, even if there is some correction in the market awaiting the Fed's decisions, it is unlikely to change the selling pressure significantly. The GBP/CHF may see a positive impact up to 31%, but EUR/JPY remains quite strong. The question is whether the selling will continue or if there will be a slight correction pause; the details will determine this.
BulutKARLI 17.jpg
 
The Forex index continues to decline today with the strengthening of the CHF, while the JPY has weakened somewhat. If the index makes a correction during the 20-day decline in US data, selling may begin on 16 currency pairs. EURJPY and GBPCHF are still experiencing strong sales at the 15-day basket value. Correction movements will present opportunities for new sales.
bulutkarli 29.jpg
 
In the past 30 trading days, there were purchases of JPY and CHF, while there were exits from AUD and NZD. At the same time, there were outflows from USD, EUR, GBP, and CAD as well. JPY was the net recipient of all these outflows, whereas CHF managed to attract some inflow, albeit minimal. This situation led to a net decrease in the forex index.
bulutkarli 56.jpg
bulutkarli 57.jpg





www.mediafire.com/file/51kp2ue93qxvtrv/Forex_Image_Series.rar/file
 
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