With Nymex it just seems like anything is possible in terms of price due to the mad volatility, but my initial thoughts were that if 106 had to been hit, it would have been last week but because the week didnt finish on friday, it didnt give it a chance, with the long weekend ahead, it will give a chance for people to reflect on the energy demand slowdown and 'bursting of the bubble' as they move out of the dollar hedge.
I know im not helping but here is what i suggest because its a similar predicament to mine when i was short at 106 and it rocketed to 111 at which point it felt like there was no return... When the price stabalises during the day which is usualy between 9am GMT to 12am GMT, you can place a few longs and as soon as you make a bit of profit, take it and repeat the process. Nymex is obviously going to hover above 98.33 (20 day MA) before it breaks so use that as a place to put longs in, i.e 99.5, 99.4, 99.3 so on and then take your profits at 99.5. This will give you a chance to at least bring your break even closer to where it is now. I managed to bring my short from 106 to 110 before it tanked and im going to ride this till 91 as this is what i feel the trade deserves.
Please dont think in any what whatsoever im telling you how to do your trades, just thought i would give my advice as i was in a similar situation on the opposite trade. With nymex , you just know it can do any price given the time, but with Long's its the annoying interest payments and my overall stance is always bearish so i generally hate going long with energy.
Good luck! Cant wait to see what the consensus is for monday. Been checking reuters ever since thurs but no new news as of yet.
