Bull or Bear Pimary Trend?

[leonarda]

The equity market is quite unclear at the moment in terms of Primary Trend. So called "experts" are mixed in their opinion. Also, if you currently look at things like OBV and Accum/Dist charts for the indices they are showing clear bearish divergence, and also Dow theorists and 30 WMA trend indications point to a bearish trend. However, with all this bearish indications, I just still feel I should be on the bullish side for the following reasons:
- Earnings are looking good, and I suspect jobs will start to recover later this year
- Historically the end of the 2nd US presidential year is very often quite bullish
- Taking the "contrary" view.

What's your opinion on the "Primary Market Trend"?

 

[Shanghai]

I don't think the primary trend is unclear at all at the moment. With my definition of a trend the S&P 500 monthly, weekly and daily charts are all on downtrends. Now whether the market goes up in the near future is another matter but the trends are clearly down. Other people may of course have a different definition of what constitutes a trend.

 

[bangkoker]

Yeah what Shanghai said.

 

[tomorton]

Up for a few days this week, then down. We may not see a bull market resume before 4100, as I suggested 03/07 elsewhere on the board.

 

[leonarda]

I would possibly agree, but I think the definitive decision will be whether we can rally above April's high from here, or break the July 1st low...
I actually think it's a bit of a stalemate, although my current bet is Long !

 

[tomorton]

I noted we consistently failed to pierce the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level against the July to April downtrend, so it's hard to see us going back to 5832 before the X-Factor final. Nearly everything about the FTSE looks bearish right now, though indicators became very oversold last week.
PS - Stops are always a good idea. Sorry to be pessimistic.

 

[leonarda]

I noted we consistently failed to pierce the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level against the July to April downtrend, so it's hard to see us going back to 5832 before the X-Factor final. Nearly everything about the FTSE looks bearish right now, though indicators became very oversold last week.
PS - Stops are always a good idea. Sorry to be pessimistic.

yeah, you could be right, i'm playing some strong stocks, but anyway Stops are in place don't worry!

 

[Rossini]

I had a vivid dream last night that the FTSE was at 3100, and I was sitting in my office considering my position. So I'm betting down.

 

[Black Swan]

I had a vivid dream last night that the FTSE was at 3100, and I was sitting in my office considering my position. So I'm betting down.

is that code for; looking down at your shoes, whilst standing on a chair, with your belt around your neck? :-0 FTSE at 3,100 would be 'kin some event..

 

[Black Swan]

Up for a few days this week, then down. We may not see a bull market resume before 4100, as I suggested 03/07 elsewhere on the board.

any time scale on this Tom?

 

[leonarda]

I think i'm going to give the current rally from July the benefit of the doubt until it closes firmly below the 50 DMA. Then I will sell into the next rally...

 

[tomorton]

any time scale on this Tom?

No. I could probably draw it out on a chart but my projections of time axis are usually nonsense, too many variables.

 

[Rossini]

is that code for; looking down at your shoes, whilst standing on a chair, with your belt around your neck? :-0 FTSE at 3,100 would be 'kin some event..

Haha, but no, in my dream I was debating whether to bottom pick and go long ;-).

 

[Black Swan]

Haha, but no, in my dream I was debating whether to bottom pick and go long ;-).

If I have another week like last week you can have first go at kicking my chair away...

 

[Rossini]

Lol, I would only need one kick....

 

[chump]

You want to find the trend then I'll keep this simple ..where's the moneyflow going ..it sure has sh..t isn't equities. Why do people want to make this harder than necessary.

 

[leonarda]

You want to find the trend then I'll keep this simple ..where's the moneyflow going ..it sure has sh..t isn't equities. Why do people want to make this harder than necessary.

i'm selling the next rally...!

 

[bangkoker]

i'm selling the next rally...!

There has been a lot of downwards movement another mini rally then a fall again.. it's all a bit mental but happy as short.

 

[leonarda]

mmm, not so sure now... until it breaks 50DMA convincingly.
Anyway i'm trailing my stops on my current longs...

 

[bangkoker]

mmm, not so sure now... until it breaks 50DMA convincingly.
Anyway i'm trailing my stops on my current longs...

Yeah agreed. Shame i missed the whole rally thing.. but will always be another good move