Hamzei_Analytics
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Posted 08:30 CST
Equity Index Update
Wednesday August 31, 2005
The index markets traded in a volatile, tight range as Crude Oil, New Orleans and Natural Gas proved to be the headliners for market movement. As I pointed out in yesterday's comment, it would be a session trading off another "lead" contract. This contract, was - and continues to be - Crude Oil. This morning, the SPU shot to 1212.50 on news that the U.S. would tap into the Strategic Reserves, however, that bounce appears to be trumped by a combination of weaker than anticipated GDP and a "already priced in" type of feeling in the index markets. Accordingly, the SPU is now back to 1209, up .50 on the session.
During yesterday afternoon's run to the lows and subsequent reversal on the White House news at 2:29 cst that we would "most likely" tap into the Strategic Reserves I was reminded of a poker game I played in last year. After a good run at the table, playing No Limit Texas Hold 'em, I had a 10,9 suited. With only three players left in the game, one folded, I called and the flop came 10,A,10...after a round of betting, came a 5, more bets (obviously I had my opponet on a pair of A's)...finally the river came with a 7. My opponet bet 2,000 I raised and went all in at 6,500 and he called...he held 10, J and beat my on the kicker. My trading positions yesterday were similar. After analyzing the volume flows and breadth I sold a variety of index markets heavily, similar to all-in. I had excellent prices as I sold between 1:35 and 1:39cst and the market started hitting session lows soon after. However, as I waited patiently for the final 30 minute selling to kick in - a funny thing happened and I was stampeded by the news from the White House. The lesson is pretty simple...if you play this game long enough sure looking situations can turn opposite in a matter of moments. My advice yesterday was to keep it close to the vest, I suggest the same today...maybe play some cards.
Good Trading to All,
Brad
Equity Index Update
Wednesday August 31, 2005
The index markets traded in a volatile, tight range as Crude Oil, New Orleans and Natural Gas proved to be the headliners for market movement. As I pointed out in yesterday's comment, it would be a session trading off another "lead" contract. This contract, was - and continues to be - Crude Oil. This morning, the SPU shot to 1212.50 on news that the U.S. would tap into the Strategic Reserves, however, that bounce appears to be trumped by a combination of weaker than anticipated GDP and a "already priced in" type of feeling in the index markets. Accordingly, the SPU is now back to 1209, up .50 on the session.
During yesterday afternoon's run to the lows and subsequent reversal on the White House news at 2:29 cst that we would "most likely" tap into the Strategic Reserves I was reminded of a poker game I played in last year. After a good run at the table, playing No Limit Texas Hold 'em, I had a 10,9 suited. With only three players left in the game, one folded, I called and the flop came 10,A,10...after a round of betting, came a 5, more bets (obviously I had my opponet on a pair of A's)...finally the river came with a 7. My opponet bet 2,000 I raised and went all in at 6,500 and he called...he held 10, J and beat my on the kicker. My trading positions yesterday were similar. After analyzing the volume flows and breadth I sold a variety of index markets heavily, similar to all-in. I had excellent prices as I sold between 1:35 and 1:39cst and the market started hitting session lows soon after. However, as I waited patiently for the final 30 minute selling to kick in - a funny thing happened and I was stampeded by the news from the White House. The lesson is pretty simple...if you play this game long enough sure looking situations can turn opposite in a matter of moments. My advice yesterday was to keep it close to the vest, I suggest the same today...maybe play some cards.
Good Trading to All,
Brad
