BlackMonday's thoughts

[BlackMonday]

OK, so this is my attempt to try and become a better, more disciplined trader :clap:

By letting the world know my thoughts, I'm hoping that it will encourage me to think a bit more about what I'm doing.

I also hope you guys will help out by adding your thoughts, pointing out errors etc.

I'm fairly new to trading, and this is my attempt to become a better trader......here's hoping

So the Dow is down 150 points on tonights close. A braver me would have shorted today (got a good time signal) but thems the breaks, so I will short from this evenings close, with a stop just above todays open. I think we are heading for long enough for their to be lots left in this.

The £ is looking interesting, against the $. Again, I'd be tempted to jump in earlier, but will wait for a bit of confirmation first. Looks like we are resting on 2:1 extension of a previous move, but lets wait.

My plan is to update these ramblings each evening. I plan to only trade once a day, as the markets close, and intend to hold positions for 3 days to 2 weeks.
Going to try and catch turning points, and see what happens.

One trade initied this evening - Sell the Dow at 11663 (current price on finspreads)

Please add your thoughts / comments, but be kind, or at least gentle

 

[BlackMonday]

OK, so the Dow was down yesterday, which is nice, but slightly worried about the rally in the second half of the day.
I will move the top down 11653. Put us breakeven, and pays for the spread and financing.
Time wise I expect the Dow to continue falling, but lets take the risk out of the trade based on strength in the second half of the day

 

[BlackMonday]

mmmmmmmmm. Well we got stopped out on this trade, but does it mean I was wrong, or does it mean I traded it wrong. At on point it was 200 points in profit. And also if I had not moved the stop down to break even I would still be in the trade.
If anyone has any thoughts, please let me know.
In general I feel we are still going down from here.

 

[barjon]

mmmmmmmmm. Well we got stopped out on this trade, but does it mean I was wrong, or does it mean I traded it wrong. At on point it was 200 points in profit. And also if I had not moved the stop down to break even I would still be in the trade.
If anyone has any thoughts, please let me know.
In general I feel we are still going down from here.

There's no right or wrong, blackmonday, just the price and what it does. As the old saw goes - trade what you see and not what you think - so your feelings aren't helping you view it dispassionately.

So far as your trade is concerned, I'm not sure about your tactics or timescale but, if you're day trading or short term, then you've got to protect 200 points of profit. With the twenty twenty vision of hindsight there seemed plenty of opportunity to get out somwhere near the start of the first rally (and today's which started from the same level). You can always plan a re-entry and the points it may cost you are a reasonable insurance premium against losing a lot, if not all, of the paper gains you have made.

Hope this is helpful

jon

 

[BlackMonday]

I find the difficult thing is knowing when to take profits. I could have taken a hundred or so points, but I was expecting more. Had the not moved the stop down I could have taken a lot more.
Thems the breaks.
Now, it time to start thinking about buying the dow again.
I had hoped we'd make a new low today, as I have today as a potential trend change (short term) With 15 minutes to go, that looks extremely unlikely.
I think I'll wait, make sure we've turned and then buy in. Had we hit 11220 today, I'd have bought like no tomorrow. We haven't so I'll just make sure we've turned.

I've got an idea that gold might have turned (longer term trade)
My guess is that we'll rise from here, until the end of the year.

 

[BlackMonday]

Europe is showing strength this morning so we'll buy the Dow at 11400.
Stop just below the latest low at 11275

 

[BlackMonday]

All is going well, with the Dow at 11625, so stop moves to break even.
Should I move stop to 11500 and lock in 100pts.
The decisions !!!

 

[RedGreenBen]

All is going well, with the Dow at 11625, so stop moves to break even.
Should I move stop to 11500 and lock in 100pts.
The decisions !!!

I have a problem whenever I see 'stops moved to break even' (and I see it a lot so not picking on this post in particular). I'm a relative newbie (and 14 months is still a newbie) but the market knows nothing about where your b/e point is and is going to run through it without a pause.

If you entered at Support/Resistance, or even if you didn't, then surely it makes sense to place a stop below/above S/R. Your P/L won't look quite so tidy but that is a small price to pay when that S/R level turns out to be the bottom/top.

As I say, I'm not an expert but that's my conclusion.

Ben

 

[BlackMonday]

Very valid point. I guess what I'm trying to do is take the risk out of the trade as soon as the market appears to be going in 'my' direction.
With this in mind the stop is moved to 11500, as on the hourly chart this is a good few points below the last low.

Two trades initiated so far.
One stopped out for break-even
One still going with 100 points profit lock in