AUDUSD thru Parity to 1.2428

[The Baptist]

Hi Friends,

Following landing the big Macro Trade of Gold from $962 to $1300 2 months early, I am having a stab at a new long term set up.

I have Highlighted the recent Break in the AUDUSD – The target is through parity and on to 1.2428

The Original Entry – 0.8859 with Loss Stop 0.8316 (which I don’t expect to be revisted). This is a 1 : 6.57 Risk : Reward Trade

Next 'Stall point' (Extended Progress Decay) before Target will be 0.9898 which occurs just post taking out of the RH1 at 0.9849

Any late entries should bare this in mind extreme Loss Stops at 0.8771 which is now some way away.

Take a look at the AUDUSD.

 

[The Baptist]

Will provide Time Frame guestimation.

Here is the Daily chart short term Target met and month of 'Stall Progress Decay'

 

[The Baptist]

Will provide Time Frame guestimation.

Here is the Daily chart short term Target met and month of 'Stall Progress Decay'

CADUSD as interesting in some ways better will Post separately.

I can't help but conclude that I am predicting the continual devaluation of the $ against Commodity currencies Hyperbolic possibility for sustained period yet unseen possible for Gold -ie XAUUSD

 

[wackypete2]

Congrats on the gold trade

Interesting long term analysis. Few questions though... why go from gold to aud? If gold corrects or tanks it certainly will affect the aud trade, although you have some room as your entry is somewhat lower. Couldn't you have done as well staying in gold. I'm not recommending that, just interested in your thinking here.

Also how do you derive the 1.2428 target area? aud is approaching long term highs at .9850, and I believe has an all-time high around the 1.1900 area.

Very interested in your reply and thoughts!

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

CADUSD as interesting in some ways better will Post separately.

I can't help but conclude that I am predicting the continual devaluation of the $ against Commodity currencies Hyperbolic possibility for sustained period yet unseen possible for Gold -ie XAUUSD

Sorry, I must have been typing when you posted this. Answers my questions on gold!

Peter

 

[Black Swan]

Fascinating, on 4hr/daily as you say it "stalled", then on 4hr looked like a long again, as always its all about the Benjamins..

Also good to see your comments on USD/CAD, I really struggled with the Loonie over September, so much so I stopped trading it, just gave money back constantly throughout the month, and yet would have been a much smoother day trade (such is life and trading) perhaps I should re-visit it?.. You should definitely post more though..

 

[The Baptist]

Congrats on the gold trade

Interesting long term analysis. Few questions though... why go from gold to aud? If gold corrects or tanks it certainly will affect the aud trade, although you have some room as your entry is somewhat lower. Couldn't you have done as well staying in gold. I'm not recommending that, just interested in your thinking here.

Also how do you derive the 1.2428 target area? aud is approaching long term highs at .9850, and I believe has an all-time high around the 1.1900 area.

Very interested in your reply and thoughts!

Peter

Hi Pete,

Some really Good points in there.

By association you are right, I am remaining extremely MT & LT bullish Gold.

The problem is probably that it may go hyperbolic and wont generate a pattern, which then by definition of the methodology does not generate levels for Targets.

While AUD and CAD has vs USD.

The Targets are projected by the amplitude from the H1 (Highest point in the Pattern and the Lowest point.

In both currency cases the high is 2007 just prior to Risk off collapse that created the Low, ie Dollar 'safe Haven' mode (LOL..).

So these are really big reactions that throw up the big Targets.

Hope this helps, as I pop up some Charts more 'infill' detail will emerge.

Happy Trading

 

[The Baptist]

Fascinating, on 4hr/daily as you say it "stalled", then on 4hr looked like a long again, as always its all about the Benjamins..

Also good to see your comments on USD/CAD, I really struggled with the Loonie over September, so much so I stopped trading it, just gave money back constantly throughout the month, and yet would have been a much smoother day trade (such is life and trading) perhaps I should re-visit it?.. You should definitely post more though..

Hi,

Yes I think the Loonie has crossed a key level today after making the clip.

There will be a reaction there always is in Breaks.. I call this phase 2 'Second Chance' Trades.

Here is the 5 stages of the Break Out covered in another pair also a short break but on a much shorter Time frame but I have illustrated the 5 Stages of a Break out (down) in this image.

I am drafting a @Hunt Volatilityt Funnel' & High Probability Book as we speak release for Feb 2011... this is one of the charts therein.

Hope it is interesting. The key Point though is T2W thread followers have not yet missed out as the 2nd Chance trade allows late entries and is just prior to capitulation Phase the Money bit ; - )

Enjoy the attachment s slipped a USDJPY in there to.

 

[wackypete2]

Good stuff.
Thanks for the reply!

Peter

 

[The Baptist]

Hi,

I have update the AUD USD progress thread here below:
http://themarketsniper.com/live-feed

Since the stall level of 0.9748 We have made excellent progress to Primary Target and next 'Progress Decay Level' at 0.9922

Not time for fresh Longs..Youtube and Highlighted chart on above link.

Enjoy