Anyone Short the USD/JPY?

[Ticker_shuffle]

I am looking for some serious dollar selling when Japan market opens.

I was in a postion today and got a quick reaction to the durable goods order, but failed to pull the trigger in that minute or two before it rebounded. I doubled my position and feel the dollar is over valued vs. the yen over the next month or so, but I am suprised by the lack of return. I was short the Kiwi vs. the Dollar yesterday before it tanked. It hit my limit and continued to drop, consequently I missed out on huge gains but still locked in 15% against my portfolio - those gains are oproviding insurance against my USD/JPY short, but I am concerned.

Anyone else short the USD vs. the Yen and what's your plan? Report came out today saying US equity markets are doomed and Japan was still hot for stocks. You think patience will prevail on the currency play?

 

[xtf]

Yes, I am just gone short again. However, when you ask whether it is a good trade- isn't that supposed to be time to get out?
Oh- and the other rule- "Don't fXXing average". All in all we're probably both in a terrible trade.

Nah, it'll probably work out

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

I always average, or pyramid as they say in this exchange, eventually my plan falls into place - usually

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

Looks like it's about to break down now...IMO

All I can say is thank goodness I was at work during todays froth otherwise I might have panicked.

 

[Hook Shot]

The Yen is gonna be a big winner - everyone agrees it's just that we're too early IMO.
I'm buying dollar vs yen as short term trader only. I expect that long term downtrend in mid to high 118's to remain big time resistance. It's sort of a reverse pyschology thing to prevent me becoming too attached to my long term bearish dollar view.

HS

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

Oh man, someone stop the pain. I have way too much of this short now.

Praying for a miracle on tomorrows CPI. What are the chances Japans new leadership will impart a rate hike for the Yen?

 

[Hook Shot]

I feel your pain............. I hear it's different name but same strat so I can't see big hikes anytime soon.....sorry.
Fingers crossed for CPI though.

HS

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

hehe

Japan seems strong, CPI should come out okay, but the way things have been going who knows?

 

[zuke]

I am long from 744 and will be hopping off at 828. I expect to see a 200+ pip drop thereafter. Just me 2 cents of course.

 

[Hook Shot]

Oh ..............you mean Japanese CPI ......... ?
Well the global agenda seems to favour higher rates whether talk or action so you might just be okay.
This rally is assuming nothing significant will come out ...........so vulnerable to a surprise i.e higher CPI?

Best of Luck

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

if you hit your 828 I will be in a world of hurt

sell while you can

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

Hook, news says Housing cooling

and that it might effect consumer spending and therefore inflationary pressures, but when the news tells me JPY is dovish I have to wonder. housing in US has not effected consumer spending.

Need CPI to coem in high tomorrow...

will I get any sleep tonight? hehe

I just listened to a trading strategy webinar and frankly I need to re-evaluate my tecnique. I am WAY to aggresive, but in the past I have used this strategy to double my account in just a few trades.

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

EUR/JPY just hit the skids...

come on baby!!!

 

[Texas_Hedge]

Sold Usd/Jpy this evening at around 18:30 London time. It has some room to fall overnight but I wouldn't expect anything major. 30 -40 pips or there abouts.


Texas

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

I just shorted more on the pop into 117.90

Who in there right mind wants USD/JPY right now.

All data came down inline, and frankly this whole run is BOGUS.

 

[Hook Shot]

Sorry I got hammered by yen recently and now I know why (apart from bad trade mgt) ......yen has been making higher bottoms since May low below 109 - sort of looks like a trend..... buy the dips until you get kicked out would be my new strategy.

So I gotta expect big breakout in high 118's for a shot at 11950 or even last years 12150 in time. The best I can see near term is 100pt drop from here to around 117 then 116 if it's giving up. ..... but I'm not saying anything new there - other than perhaps look for higher prices !!

 

[Chocolate]

yep I'm short from 117.80 odd as of yesterday; we should see around 116.3 in a few days me thinks....

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

Yeah I am holding tight. up to 20 lots, I'll keep trowing money at it until the king comes home. Screw the USD!! My limits at 116.60

edit: By the way, what's this talk about a deal with China?

 

[Ticker_shuffle]

NY propping the dollar up? Soon as Forex.com closes USD/JPY sags

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDJPY=X&t=1d

 

[ketchup]

buy usdjpy
us activity cools(money becomes expensive) so does jp since it depends mostly on us comsumers(and us econ in money equivalent bigger than that of jp), its own cpi just started to normalize recently in the year but not comfirmed by m2 growths yet so deflation could revenge again,
boj summer hike in my view was technical dictated by global rates uptrend that a sign that peak of econ growth in the world has passed away since inflation is a lagging indicator
look at oecd global leading index than ifo they all long time ago turned down(greenback buy company triggerde by crossing 1/2 of previous phase) and if we do some tec work over these indexes we could get a projected date when all that slow-down may terminate it falls on april2007
so until that time we could expect that all cpi effect on us economy is wiped out completely and economy starts to expand again in non-inflationary mode so called soft landing
all that forces usdjpy to rise to new highs, downward trendline on monthly chart will be broken on ism report next week and pair will continue to move to the upper border of new created channel, i expect 2months of upmoving untill it abates at 126.4(by the end of october 122) and starts to correct on optional take profiting and chinese yuan revaluation investors start to enter again emerging markets it would take us 2 months of flat correction and positioning for much high targets in the next 4 since that time there would be no inflation ( dear money), major institutions carry trade pair on rates differece to 142.4 by the end of april when first tokens of upcoming inflation could appear as consumer start to buy more goods on discounted prices clearing inventories but shrinking percantage change of gdp, so the pair will correct in 6 months back to 130/129.8 by that time new prime-minister Abe could adress the nation that deflation still ubeatable however industry production will start to expand slowly from that time generating demand for money and office space but it would be not enough to reverse the course and we carry trade to 163.4 by october 2008 and only here cpi will start to weigh on pair