Another Journal...

[trader_dante]

I forgot that ETX Capital gave me a £15 bonus at Christmas.

With £4 already in there (no doubt the result of some dubious trading in 2008) that gives me the princely sum of £19 as trading capital

I thought I might see if I could run it up into something significant as I have done before although I have to say I've never started this low and have literally no margin for error whatsoever!

Well, I've decided to buy £1 per tick in Thomas Cook Group which is a UK FTSE 100 listed share at 180.

 

[foredog]

Why TCG.l??

Becuase they sorted you out with a nice week in Corfu??

or was it a pin yesterday?

 

[arabianights]

shocked you're not fiddling with RBS or suchlike...

 

[timsk]

. . . and I'm shocked they gave you a £15 Chrissy present. They didn't give me anything! That said, the bottle of claret from the comp' was by far and away the best bottle of wine I drank in all of 2008 - VERY nice indeed.

 

[arabianights]

They gave me a pressie tim and I posted the link to claim it. In future hang on every word I say and you won't have problems.

 

[trader_dante]

There was a 3.28% rally in Thomas Cook yesterday, despite news that bookings for the summer season at its German operations looked set to come in below last year's level, down by a double-digit percentage rate.

The chart shows a sharp expansion in volume as the price closed into resistance.

Shares are up another 3.19% in early trade this morning (not shown on this EOD chart).

I am looking for 200p and will see how the price reacts there.

 

[foredog]

Just hit 198 but the Order book looks thinner than a model!

Don't miss it for a tick!

 

[KillPhil08]

If i give you £19 can i get 25% of any returns please .

 

[arabianights]

if you give me £19 you can get 100% of the 'returns' on what I 'invest' it in, although you should really be equipped to handle biohazards.

 

[foredog]

if you give me £19 you can get 100% of the 'returns' on what I 'invest' it in, although you should really be equipped to handle biohazards.

here's what I'll invest your £19 in. You don't want the returns from this one!!!

 

[trader_dante]

Thomas Cook closed up 6.97% today.

I'm still holding and looking for a break of 200p tomorrow to see how it reacts.

 

[trader_dante]

Yesterday was another good day for TCG with shares up a further 2.67% even while the FTSE 100 came off 2.45%.

We came right into the 200p sbr pivot and closed on it although it's worth noting that volume was lower on this rally.

 

[Splitlink]

. . . and I'm shocked they gave you a £15 Chrissy present. They didn't give me anything! That said, the bottle of claret from the comp' was by far and away the best bottle of wine I drank in all of 2008 - VERY nice indeed.

I see that Fins are offering 75 quid to new members. I haven't looked for the strings, you'll have to find them for yourselves.

About TD's 19 quid.

What about margin? If you open with a stop in place you will require less. Otherwise 10%
would be 18 quid. A bit close to your budget so a rolling trade would be dangerous. if the price goes down they won't open you the next day, so it must be a future.

Split

 

[timsk]

Yesterday was another good day for TCG with shares up a further 2.67% even while the FTSE 100 came off 2.45%.

We came right into the 200p sbr pivot and closed on it although it's worth noting that volume was lower on this rally.

Tom,
The probability of price being rejected at the 200 resistance level is very high and, although it may eventually be breached, it will retrace a fair bit first, IMO. If I were in your shoes, I'd want to have a tight trailing stop and, ideally, take half off the table now which you can't do unfortunately. Anyway, I hope you manage to hang on to your profit.

As an aside, I know you particularly enjoy running up tiny accounts into something huge in percentage terms. However, my impression is (so please correct me if I'm wrong) that they get to a point at which it becomes difficult to maintain the same level of growth. If I'm right about that, I wondered why that is? Is it because you ratchet up the risk management as the account builds or is it for some other reason?
Cheers,
Tim.

 

[trader_dante]

I see that Fins are offering 75 quid to new members. I haven't looked for the strings, you'll have to find them for yourselves.

About TD's 19 quid.

What about margin? If you open with a stop in place you will require less. Otherwise 10%
would be 18 quid. A bit close to your budget so a rolling trade would be dangerous. if the price goes down they won't open you the next day, so it must be a future.

Split

Yes, I am in the March future. I took it with the largest stop they allow which was 13 ticks.

There has been some weakness this morning (currently down 4%) so the resistance at 200p has held for the time being.

I've just moved my stop to 181p (+1 on entry) and am considering using the margin that has been freed up to double up if we move back up off the support area I have here.

 

[trader_dante]

Tom,
The probability of price being rejected at the 200 resistance level is very high and, although it may eventually be breached, it will retrace a fair bit first, IMO. If I were in your shoes, I'd want to have a tight trailing stop and, ideally, take half off the table now which you can't do unfortunately. Anyway, I hope you manage to hang on to your profit.

As an aside, I know you particularly enjoy running up tiny accounts into something huge in percentage terms. However, my impression is (so please correct me if I'm wrong) that they get to a point at which it becomes difficult to maintain the same level of growth. If I'm right about that, I wondered why that is? Is it because you ratchet up the risk management as the account builds or is it for some other reason?
Cheers,
Tim.

Tim, the fact that we are now down at 191p is making me wonder why on earth I didn't take profit at that obvious resistance level when it opened there this morning and failed to move higher.

But to tell you the truth, I've uncovered some very interesting things on TCG and that's what encourages me to hold for higher prices.

To answer your second point, usually I increase the risk as the account grows which invariably means that large drawdowns occur.

 

[foredog]

Tim, the fact that we are now down at 191p is making me wonder why on earth I didn't take profit at that obvious resistance level when it opened there this morning and failed to move higher.

But to tell you the truth, I've uncovered some very interesting things on TCG and that's what encourages me to hold for higher prices.

To answer your second point, usually I increase the risk as the account grows which invariably means that large drawdowns occur.

Anything to do with all the bid stroies about 3-6 months ago???????

I think TUi may have released a statement about it....

(may be getting my wires crossed, haven't checked back the news)

 

[trader_dante]

I can't help feeling that I've mismanaged this trade quite badly and let the profit get away from me.

I have uncovered what I feel to be some bullish fundamentals on TCG but at the same time, I've let hope or perhaps complacency take over here and ignored what I think are some clear warning signals.

I was originally looking for 200p (see above) which was reached fairly quickly but when price failed to decisively break above it for two days in a row, I think I should have exited the position.

You see, whilst momentum has been strong, volume, in the last two days of the rally, has been declining which is a clear indication that we were probably not going to break the level at this time.

While this was going on, the upwards move in the FTSE 100 abruptly reversed and looked very vulnerable to a further slide in the days to come which should have served as a further warning.

I also hadn't considered the risk:reward which shouldn't only be considered at the time of entry but as the trade progresses too.

If we get through 200p there is resistance all the way up with approximately 205p, 210p, 218p and 225p being the more important levels.

I have moved my stop to 181p (+1 on entry) but what I am really doing here is risking giving back 19 ticks when the next resistance is only 5 ticks above.

So not only is the probability of a continuation upwards lower but the payout to be gained is less than the risk I am taking to run it up there.

 

[fibonelli]

Hi TD,

I do like the volume coming into that upswing. I think they're outperforming the main index so that also good.

That downbar does look like continued supply from the bulls who bought between Aug & Oct. They're still willing to take near breakeven/smallish losses after a shocking fall to 125.

The highest probability scenario is buy support coming in around the 180-85 RBS pivot zone and another test of 200.

I think it is more likely that the indices make some upward progress as they are closer to support than resistance. DJIA is bang on 8000 which seems to be a psychologicallly important round number.

I may be completely wrong!

 

[foredog]

Rally rally...don't miss it this time TD