Am I missing something?!

[MonkeyHell]

Hi there,

I've been browsing this forum for quite a while but this will be my first post so hello everybody! Let me start by saying a huge thank you to everybody on here, I've been trying to learn about trading now for a couple of years and reading through past threads on here has been invaluable to me.

I've recently been looking into binary betting on IG Index however I'm yet to commit any money to it and have just been studying the markets.

I have been particularly interested in watching them closely at the close of the day for the FTSE 100. I have noticed that even up to a minute before the close when the market looks certain to close either higher or lower there is regularly still a good few points to be taken out by betting on what seems a dead cert. I am fully aware that the downside to this is the massive risk I'd be taking if it went the wrong way hence why I'm wondering if anyone here has had any experience of trading the binary markets in this way?

 

[pboyles]

I think you're probably missing something. Can you explain what the dead cert is? That is moves in the last few minutes or that it moves in a certain direction in the last few minutes?

 

[MonkeyHell]

Sorry, re-reading it I wasn't completely clear!

I mean in the last 5 minutes once the price seems set to end higher or lower...

 

[LosPinos]

Hey Monkey Hell. Have you tried to do this or text it because I am not sure they let you trade in the last few minutes for that reason.

Never tried it myself so apologies for not being a great deal of help.

 

[MonkeyHell]

I haven't tried it but have sat and watched numerous times now and the deal tickets are always still available right up until the last few seconds. Within the last 20-30 seconds the prices available on what seems certain does usually go to 100 hence effectively closing the market but before this there are definitely points available to be taken albeit for a very high risk/reward ratio.

 

[Filmon]

I haven't tried it but have sat and watched numerous times now and the deal tickets are always still available right up until the last few seconds. Within the last 20-30 seconds the prices available on what seems certain does usually go to 100 hence effectively closing the market but before this there are definitely points available to be taken albeit for a very high risk/reward ratio.

I have looked at the demo of IG options which by the way better deal than any binary options out there, as you are actually buying binary contracts....

On what your saying, i'm not expert on this is the case: 1) The option contract works on the bases of 0%-100% prices fluctuation 50% is the strike prices. In other words 100% up and 0% is down. So if the price is at or over 100% that means you can NOT call up as the prices is 100% certain will not go down to below 50%, in IG's deal book they lock the UP button in the deal wheel. The same thing if its the other way around, they lock the DOWN button when prices rich 0%

2) Let say the prices is at up to 90% 10 pips shy of 100% and the contract is expiring in 20 seconds you will see both the UP & DOWN button, If you bet $100.00 the prise will remain UP at best you will win $10.00 if the prices still remain at the same level you entered. You are basically risking $100 to win 90% certain $10. If you had put DOWN at the same level with the same about of money you had 10% of wining $1000 with your $100, not a great chance but nevertheless I have seen that happen few times. Near contract expiry time you have much-more action and prices fluctuation.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You are not missing anything, and you can make those few pennies probably 99% of the time. On the 1% of the time, you will lose all the profits you have made plus a lot more. So the answer for whether you will come out ahead after putting in all the time and effort is a no.

Too many people believe they are trading/betting against an ATM, where all you have to do is to use the right combo of PIN (aka strategy), and cash will come spewing out. It doesn't work like that. When you trade/bet, you are up against professionals/insiders/institutions. They can move prices quicker than you can say WTF. I was being optimistic when I said they will hit you in 1% of the time. In actual play, I believe they will rape you a lot sooner than that.

Anyway, go ahead with some small bets and get it out of your system. It's good for you. In the end you will learn there ain't no dead certs on the retail joe side of the deal. To play dead certs, you can win by opening a bucketshop or a bank, or at least play the game from that side of the fence.

 

[forever_young]

That's ineresting, but the spreads are definitely not tight in this time, aren't they?
Would be this money worth all the scheme?

 

[NVP]

theres always plenty of glitches and small anomalies in the markets to tease us

what you have to realise is that it has to consistently make money for you after factoring in all trading costs/spreads and risks - and on live accounts...not Demo's

N

 

[LosPinos]

I have looked at the demo of IG options which by the way better deal than any binary options out there, as you are actually buying binary contracts....

On what your saying, i'm not expert on this is the case: 1) The option contract works on the bases of 0%-100% prices fluctuation 50% is the strike prices. In other words 100% up and 0% is down. So if the price is at or over 100% that means you can NOT call up as the prices is 100% certain will not go down to below 50%, in IG's deal book they lock the UP button in the deal wheel. The same thing if its the other way around, they lock the DOWN button when prices rich 0%

2) Let say the prices is at up to 90% 10 pips shy of 100% and the contract is expiring in 20 seconds you will see both the UP & DOWN button, If you bet $100.00 the prise will remain UP at best you will win $10.00 if the prices still remain at the same level you entered. You are basically risking $100 to win 90% certain $10. If you had put DOWN at the same level with the same about of money you had 10% of wining $1000 with your $100, not a great chance but nevertheless I have seen that happen few times. Near contract expiry time you have much-more action and prices fluctuation.

I dont use IG binaries, I use them for other assets but a 90% chance of making 10% reward whilst running a 10% chance of taking a 90% loss sounds like a bet not a trade to me.

I do stress that I havent tried it so wouldnt know but if it was possible to cream the system this way someone would have found it, made money, opened their mouth and IG wouldve change the system already IMHO.

 

[Shakone]

There are always opportunities to pick up pennies risking pounds. For a binary that is in the high 90's and near end of day, you have a good chance of it going to 100.But you're risking 90 something. Well a 4 point target with a 90 point stop has a high chance of working out too. Are the spreads on the binary making this a better deal than just taking a normal directional trade on the underlying? I'd be surprised if they were.

 

[NVP]

you are laying the market .............all sounds good until the big wave hits

 

[LosPinos]

you are laying the market .............all sounds good until the big wave hits

Exactly and through the close is where you see those big waves.

I think if you tested this you would find that actually it isn't a profit making trade you have to be right 90% of the time to break even!!!

 

[Hakuna Matata]

ask yourself this: where is my edge?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

ask yourself this: where is my edge?

Being able to see dead certs where others can't.

 

[MonkeyHell]

Thank you for all your replies, taking everything into account it is a massive risk for a relatively small return.

I'm not sure if it could work by closely monitoring the trade and selling out if it begins to go against you thus never having to take a full loss? I guess you'd have to be super quick though as it can easily run against you quicker than you can blink!

It's just an idea I am toying with, I'm aware of the risks and I'm not even saying it's a good idea at all I just wanted a few pointers from people with more experience than myself!