I will be posting the daily assessment and actions on weekdays and the weekly evaluation on Saturdays. The 2 modules are complementary which reduces the variance of results in view of a positive monthly income.
Weekly Assessment (12/11/2015 evening)
Summary: Quick correction developing, partial rebound expected soon
The week did a lot of damage to the technical situation. We are all negative this Friday night. Nevertheless the short term risk is weak and a short rebound could occur fro the middle of next week (seasonal pattern+"buy the news" reaction after the FED rises rates, or "relief rally" if it doesn't). SDS will be sold upon extinction of intermediate risk. Untl this moment we trade around it according module 2 rules.
Background Trend: Negative from Positive
Apparent trend: Negative from Positive
Secret Leading Indicator: Negative from Negative
Weekly trend assessment: Background Negative from Negative, Trend negative from Neutral
Risk Assessment
Intermediate Term Risk: +1 (moderate, scale [-3,+3])
Short Term Risk: -2 weak, scale [-4,+4])
Situation
Quick correction developing, partial rebound expected soon
RSI Market: 10
Average True Range: 60 points
Actions taken today 12/11/2015
Shifted SPX calls position 50 points lower (profit)
Actions next session at the open 12/14/2015
None
Positions (for a $1 million account)
As of 12/11/2015:
Module 1
- 20 calls SPX exp. 12/01/2015, strike 2095
- 15 puts SPX exp. 12/01/2015, strike 2000
Module 2
- 10,000 SDS (double short S&P 500)
Module 3
- Undisclosed
Weekly Assessment (12/11/2015 evening)
Summary: Quick correction developing, partial rebound expected soon
The week did a lot of damage to the technical situation. We are all negative this Friday night. Nevertheless the short term risk is weak and a short rebound could occur fro the middle of next week (seasonal pattern+"buy the news" reaction after the FED rises rates, or "relief rally" if it doesn't). SDS will be sold upon extinction of intermediate risk. Untl this moment we trade around it according module 2 rules.
Background Trend: Negative from Positive
Apparent trend: Negative from Positive
Secret Leading Indicator: Negative from Negative
Weekly trend assessment: Background Negative from Negative, Trend negative from Neutral
Risk Assessment
Intermediate Term Risk: +1 (moderate, scale [-3,+3])
Short Term Risk: -2 weak, scale [-4,+4])
Situation
Quick correction developing, partial rebound expected soon
RSI Market: 10
Average True Range: 60 points
Actions taken today 12/11/2015
Shifted SPX calls position 50 points lower (profit)
Actions next session at the open 12/14/2015
None
Positions (for a $1 million account)
As of 12/11/2015:
Module 1
- 20 calls SPX exp. 12/01/2015, strike 2095
- 15 puts SPX exp. 12/01/2015, strike 2000
Module 2
- 10,000 SDS (double short S&P 500)
Module 3
- Undisclosed
