A journal to keep track of how long I can keep up my 100% success rate

[ButterFlyTrader]

Hello All,

I am new here.

I have been trading an amazing system for about 2 weeks now.

That is 10 trading days and have been profitable in 10 of those days.

I did 65 trades in that short period and had 65 winners.

I would like to post a record of my trades as I work it so that I can have a live record here of how I performed along the way.

Very simply what I will do is this...I trade...I book a profit and I post

I hope to be able to do this for a very very long time.

I am currently trading just a mini account so for every one pip that I make it is just $1

I started this account with just $70 and have since withdrawn $1400 so if I blow this account I am still very much ahead.

This being the week end, I will post my trades over the last 2 weeks to give some basis to start my humble track record.

ButterFlyTrader

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 24 Mar

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 25 Mar

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 26th Mar

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 27th Mar

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 28th Mar

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 31st Mar

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 1st Apr

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 2nd Apr

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 3rd Apr

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Trades for 4th Apr

 

[timsk]

ButterFlyTrader,

I would like to post a record of my trades as I work it so that I can have a live record here of how I performed along the way . . .

This strikes me as a somewhat spurious reason to start a thread of this kind. Cynics will conclude that since you've registered as a trainer/coach vendor that you hope members will be impressed by your 100% record and will rush to pay for your services.

. . .Very simply what I will do is this...I trade...I book a profit and I post. . ..

Putting on a trade is easy. Waiting for it to go into profit by a few pips and then booking a profit is equally easy and an old trick which works for a while - but not indefinitely. If this is what you're doing - and your statements indicate that it is - you will come a cropper sooner or later.

. . . I am currently trading just a mini account so for every one pip that I make it is just $1. . .

As per the above comment. most of your winners are for $2.00 - $4.00. No one ever in the history of trading has a 100% success rate. I'll bet my life's savings you're not going to be the first. And having a success rate of 99% is useless if you make $1.00 on 99 trades and then lose $100.00 (or more) on the one that goes against you.

Hopefully, I've completely misinterpreted both your intentions for starting this thread, along with your trading methodology. However, based on what you've posted so far, the conclusions that I've outlined above are the ones what most experienced traders are likely to draw.
Tim.

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Thank you for your input.

Let's just see what happens as this unfolds.

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

ButterFlyTrader,

you hope members will be impressed by your 100% record and will rush to pay for your services.



Tim.

Sorry to disappoint you but I do not charge. I don't coach from a commercial angle. The people I train and coach are the ones I earmark for a long term commitment to trade for me and help in building up the team I am in the process of putting together.

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

ButterFlyTrader,

Putting on a trade is easy.

This is correct.

ButterFlyTrader,
Waiting for it to go into profit by a few pips and then booking a profit is equally easy and an old trick

This is also very correct.

ButterFlyTrader,
an old trick which works for a while - but not indefinitely.

I think it works for some and then again it does not work for others. I am definitely looking to it working for me indefinitely

ButterFlyTrader,
If this is what you're doing - and your statements indicate that it is - you will come a cropper sooner or later.

For sure you would have been right more often than you have been wrong...that after all is the hallmark all traders seek and I have been probably more wrong than I have been right...but I am certainly going to try and change that mindset.

ButterFlyTrader,
As per the above comment. most of your winners are for $2.00 - $4.00. No one ever in the history of trading has a 100% success rate.

I agree with you but that does not mean that history cannot be changed. Before Christian Bernard did a heart transplant back in those days of the dark ages they also did say that it never could be done because it never has been done in the whole of history. We could still be living in that pack of lies if Christian Bernard decided to go along with that line of thinking. Given the choice to look towards Christian Bernard for inspiration and looking to you for inspiration I hope you will not be too slighted if I chose Bernard.

ButterFlyTrader,
I'll bet my life's savings you're not going to be the first.

Let's put a figure to where your mouth is right now... Just exactly how much is your life's savings ? I want to know how much richer I will be when it comes time to collect on your bet.

ButterFlyTrader,
And having a success rate of 99% is useless if you make $1.00 on 99 trades and then lose $100.00 (or more) on the one that goes against you.

I totally agree with you here...with a slight clarification...I am not talking about 99% nor looking at anything closely remote to that....I am going for the Full Monty here... 100% and nothing less...Total Decimation...we take no prisoners !!!

ButterFlyTrader,
Hopefully, I've completely misinterpreted both your intentions for starting this thread, along with your trading methodology.

I hope so too as I think you would have great difficulty having a life without your life's savings.

ButterFlyTrader,
However, based on what you've posted so far, the conclusions that I've outlined above are the ones what most experienced traders are likely to draw.
Tim.

Yes I agree but a conclusion drawn does not mean it will be the conclusion attained. It is also the same reason why most experienced traders don't end up with the most money...they end up with the most experience but the least money

Thank you for your comments..it is your honest and treasured opinion and based on what you have come to know and experience so far...I am grateful for it as it gives me the platform to showcase that I do in fact hold a radically different point of view...it does not mean that I am right or that you are wrong. It does however mean we are different and where we differ in viewpoints can be so very clearly defined.

 

[timsk]

Hi ButterFlyTrader,

I think it works for some and then again it does not work for others. I am definitely looking to it working for me indefinitely.

What a trader wants and what a trader gets are rarely ever the same thing. Who wouldn't want a 100% success rate - and how many achieve it? I assume your thread is a joke - a bit of fun - and that's fine.

...but I am certainly going to try and change that mindset.

If you think that your PnL is governed by your mind set, then you'd best prepare yourself for a nasty shock. I agree with you that the right mind set is essential for success, but it's not the only component and, arguably, it plays second fiddle to having a sound methodology. And the latter is something you appear not to have.

Given the choice to look towards Christian Bernard for inspiration and looking to you for inspiration I hope you will not be too slighted if I chose Bernard..

I'm not offended at all. In fact, my stepson had a heart transplant so, like you, Christiaan Barnard is also one of my heroes. Additionally, I'm all in favour of people breaking through barriers - doing things that had previously been thought to be impossible. The difference between medical science and trading is that the former is based on the science of the day. And that changes constantly. There are lots of things that are medically 'impossible' to do today that we will be able to do in the future. But trading is more of an art than a science and, unless you've got mystic Meg's abilities that enable you to see into the future, you're never going to have a 100% success rate.

Let's put a figure to where your mouth is right now... Just exactly how much is your life's savings ? I want to know how much richer I will be when it comes time to collect on your bet..

There's no point as you're never going to collect! You've got more chance of winning the lottery 10 weeks in a row than you have of getting your hands on my life's savings!

I totally agree with you here...with a slight clarification...I am not talking about 99% nor looking at anything closely remote to that....I am going for the Full Monty here... 100% and nothing less...Total Decimation...we take no prisoners !!!.

As I suspected, you're a comedian who's joined T2W to have a laugh!

Yes I agree but a conclusion drawn does not mean it will be the conclusion attained . . .

I sure hope you heed your own words!

...it does not mean that I am right or that you are wrong. . .

Ain't that the truth!

There's no need to reply to my comments unless you particularly want to. I've said what I have merely as a warning to gullible new members who might be drawn to the thread title and actually take you seriously. I've also moved the thread out of the Journals section and into the Foyer where it belongs. In the unlikely event that you want to be taken seriously, I'll consider moving it back once you've provided some meat on the bone and explained your methodology and, most importantly, your risk management strategy.
Tim.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi ButterFlyTrader

I apologise if you have already said this - but do you use a stop and if so what is your stop loss size ?

Even if you achieve say a 99 5% win ratio on say 1000 trades ( which as far as I know as never been achieved - other than originally on HFT ) you can still lose money with no stop loss. This is because 950 wins on 1 - 5 pips - can still be wiped out by 50 losses of 500 - 2000+ pips.

I am a very experienced intraday FX scalper and know of some intraday traders who tried to leave sell scalps under 2100 on the EU and scalp buys above 4300 . They looked upon not closing them until they come back into profit - but even on just 0 5% stake based on 25 pip theoretical stops - their wins just don't get them anywhere.

I have to agree with Timsk and say 100% is just not possible over thousands of trades and over 3 yrs+ etc. A black swan / internet /price crash will always stop it happening. Although I have never had more than mid thirties winners in a row - I have seen accounts with guys even getting over 100 consecutive wins - but their win ratios over say a 1000 trades is still below 80%.

Yes please dream of 100% win ratios - but until you get a few millions pound worth of supercomputers and can trade on small money in a 0 000005 of a second - with no spread costs - then I am afraid it will not happen.

So If you do make over 100 trades with no loss and all trades closed - you have at least made 10% of the journey

Good Luck

Regards

F

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Hi ButterFlyTrader

I apologise if you have already said this - but do you use a stop and if so what is your stop loss size ?

Even if you achieve say a 99 5% win ratio on say 1000 trades ( which as far as I know as never been achieved - other than originally on HFT ) you can still lose money with no stop loss. This is because 950 wins on 1 - 5 pips - can still be wiped out by 50 losses of 500 - 2000+ pips.

I am a very experienced intraday FX scalper and know of some intraday traders who tried to leave sell scalps under 2100 on the EU and scalp buys above 4300 . They looked upon not closing them until they come back into profit - but even on just 0 5% stake based on 25 pip theoretical stops - their wins just don't get them anywhere.

I have to agree with Timsk and say 100% is just not possible over thousands of trades and over 3 yrs+ etc. A black swan / internet /price crash will always stop it happening. Although I have never had more than mid thirties winners in a row - I have seen accounts with guys even getting over 100 consecutive wins - but their win ratios over say a 1000 trades is still below 80%.

Yes please dream of 100% win ratios - but until you get a few millions pound worth of supercomputers and can trade on small money in a 0 000005 of a second - with no spread costs - then I am afraid it will not happen.

So If you do make over 100 trades with no loss and all trades closed - you have at least made 10% of the journey

Good Luck

Regards

F

Sure...I'll let you know when I get there and by the way I don't use any stop loss so I don't have to worry over Black Swans and Internet crashes

 

[ZEN archer]

Sure...I'll let you know when I get there and by the way I don't use any stop loss so I don't have to worry over Black Swans and Internet crashes

Is sounds promising. There is also a nice broker from NZ regulated in Cyprus offering leverage of 1:2000 (see the recent T2W posts) Good to open an account with them as they offer 55% bonus and start making money with this wonderful system of yours. What can possibly go wrong?

 

[ButterFlyTrader]

Is sounds promising. There is also a nice broker from NZ regulated in Cyprus offering leverage of 1:2000 (see the recent T2W posts) Good to open an account with them as they offer 55% bonus and start making money with this wonderful system of yours. What can possibly go wrong?

No thank you. I have been with my broker for some 12 years now...I'll stay with them