Forex Technical Analysis Day Trading & Scalping 15 Minute Break-out Strategy

In this streaming video, Phil provides the outline of a trading strategy he uses regularly for trading the forex market.

In this example, he demonstrates a simple break-out strategy on the Eur/JPY pair using 15 minute charts, but his interpretation of the charts, using price action and candlestick analysis, can be applied to many other price patterns across the currency pairs.

He details his precise method for identifying and trading this set-up, including:

  • when the set-up is most likely to appear
  • why you should avoid taking the trade on the first break-out
  • where to place a stop-loss and why you should resist the temptation to move this to break-even at the first opportunity
  • how candlestick analysis can be used to support the entry decision
  • where to exit the trade.
Click here to view the video (will appear in new window).

Further examples of Phil's trading strategies can be viewed at www.trading-strategies.info
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Click to expand...
Very interesting and well presented video, Phil: thank you very much. May I ask questions here? First, what's the significance of the 7.00 time you mention towards the end of the soundtrack? Secondly, is there any particular significance of this being a EUR/JPY trade, or might you equally have chosen another currency pair? Thirdly, less important, I suspect, but I was curious about your 8,12,8 MACD histogram settings: can you comment on them? But even if it's not convenient to answer questions here, thank you for a very interesting and welcome video presentation!
 
Reply to Roberto

what's the significance of the 7.00 time you mention towards the end of the soundtrack?

Just an arbitrary time 8am gmt is one ive used for a while. In fairness it can be flexible as with all aspects of TA but generally speaking i do not break it often an dif I do I'm only taking about 30ish minutes if there has been a well defined range during the Asian session.

Is there any particular significance of this being a EUR/JPY trade, or might you equally have chosen another currency pair?

This is a pattern that can be used on any market and any pair. There is nothing new to this it is just how I decide to trade it within forex.

Less important, I suspect, but I was curious about your 8,12,8 MACD histogram settings: can you comment on them?

Again nothing special here it is just a slightly faster setting. Currently I do not have macd on my main set of charts. I only used it for divergences in any case.
 
NB,

I cant see the video !!
I have switched off "no pop-ups" etc. I get a url, but no video.
Is there is anything else I need on my PC to get it ?
rsvp
 
Excellent description NB. But perhaps you could clarify how you calulate a target? Didn't think this bit was too clear :D
 
reply to options

options said:
Excellent description NB. But perhaps you could clarify how you calulate a target? Didn't think this bit was too clear :D
Click to expand...


In an effort to keep it simple. The height of teh pattern (in this case the high/low range of the Asian session as at 8am gmt) add this to the BO point. A variation on this target will be from the Pullback entry point and worth keeping an eye on.
 
Hi Newtron,

Very informative. I trade something similar myself, so I was curious to know how/what do you do on trading days when there is no significant pullback into the opening range, (yesterday on cable for example).

Do you find that missing some of these is more than made up for by the loss of the false signals?

Any comments appreciated.

G-Man
 
reply to g-man

On 15 minute chart there were good sized pullbacks at 1.8810 1.8845 and 1.8865 so take your pick of entries.
Cable also gave an early signal before the BO which sometimes happens. If you also look on the 60 min it is clear which way you should be trading
 
Before this gets into a larger debate of "what if" schenario's do not look into this more than is necessary. This pattern (or any pattern you choose) is there or it isnt. It cannot be any clearer. If you do not think there is a pullback (or necessary part of a pattern) then the pattern is incomplete and wait for another set up. There are plenty of pairs to choose from
All the information about how I use this strat is on the video with further discusion in the forums on my site.

Respectfully

NB
 
NB,

Thanks for your reply.

I was mis-interpreting the video in that I was assuming you waited for a pullback into the opening range before looking for your entry point. Apologies. I assume that on yesterdays cable chart the 9:15 doji would fullfill your criteria here. I will admit that applying these rules would have saved me some money today!

Incidentally, do you ever change your profit targets if there is an exceptionally large/small opening range?

Thx,

G-Man
 
G-man

nay problemo, the video gave a pretty good all around example of problems with trading break outs. Common stop places for the rather annoying stop hunt that plagues a lot of newer traders. It will not alway happen as in the video but the key element of the set ups developments will always be there.

Today trading a blind breakout (just taking an entry above the high or low of the range) on cable would have cost you lost of pips not once but twice as you were reversed. As i type not it is continuing in its orgional break out direction. Waiting for a PB on any pattern BO can save you wasted time in a trade and the headache that goes with it.
On the other hand there will be days when if will break and take off without you... just remember when it happens (and it will) how many pips you have saved by playing it safe.
 
reply to kinda town

Kinda Town said:
How does the three day trial work?
Paypal will apparently start charging after first day, Mr Bomb..?
Click to expand...


I gave a free trial for my birhtday, now it is back to how it was. I have actually added an additional day to this offer.

This has served its purpose of keeping the spoilers out and only those who are actually serious about trading will take a look.
 
Hi NB,

Looking at trading this concept today. Just taken a short at 198.09 on GBP/JPY following the pullback after the break, looking at the spinning top and doji/dragonfly doji. Stop currently at 198.39, limit at 197.49.

Any comments on this trade appreciated.

G-Man
 
Hi NB - enjoyed the video. I understand the doji and spinning top. When spotting a spinning top then what would you consider the maximum pip spread of the meat/body of the top?
 
Lambchops

In all honesty I dont look that hard at if it has a particular pip size of body. If it look like a ST/ Hammer or some of the other bar patterns I look at it then its a green light for me.

Not very helpfull but every thing I use is on the video and I done make it any more complicated than what ive stated.

Regards
NB
 
KISS is always good.

I'll check it out.
Have you tried playing a reversal back to the bottom / top of the range?
(Seems like it happens often.)

Regards,
mtt_14
 
Hi all,

Very interesting video sound very poor, I like his stile of trading.

Dan Erad
 
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