Self fullfilling prophecy of set ups

Traders have a tendency to see patterns and set ups everywhere , it can lead to seeing trades that don’t exist.

Patterns: The Need for Order | Psych Central

Our brains have evolved to look for patterns and assign meaning, even when none exist.

Book Review: The Believing Brain. Michael Shermer |

Traders see price action where none exists.

Apophenia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jan 27 - Random - LeavittBrothers's library

Forums - Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

Try this little exercise, it's really cool & gets our brain working ...

Count every "F" in the following text:



FINISHED FILES ARE THE RE
SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI
FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH
THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS.....
(SEE BELOW)




HOW MANY 'F's?






Count them again.






WRONG, THERE ARE 6 -- no joke..


READ IT AGAIN !


Really, go Back and Try to find the 6 'F's before you scroll down.


The reasoning behind this is further down.








The brain cannot process "OF".


FINISHED FILES ARE THE RE
SULT OFYEARS OF SCIENTI
FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH
THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS.....

Anyone who counts all 6 'F's on the first go is a genius.

Your brain can not process all trading information .

15 min tlb said:

.........................it can lead to seeing trades that don’t exist......................

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Seems to me that a trade exists if you take one, whatever the reason you might have had for taking it. From then on price moves favourably or unfavourably and it's how traders deal with that which is the more crucial bit.

Entries, however generated, don't move your account one jot. It's exits that put bread on the table or send you to the poorhouse.

barjon said:

Seems to me that a trade exists if you take one, whatever the reason you might have had for taking it. From then on price moves favourably or unfavourably and it's how traders deal with that which is the more crucial bit.

Entries, however generated, don't move your account one jot. It's exits that put bread on the table or send you to the poorhouse.

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Many traders see the same entries , but a good trader will filter out the randomness with a great method with an advantage.

Interesting . Routines and patterns are enforced upon us from an early age. Some manage to and some don't. Those that don't are often labeled as those that have little hope of attaining any great success in their lives.

Could these individuals find trading easier than most because their mind is more comfortable dealing with the chaos. They may be able to look beyond the patterns.

Just a thought.

15 min tlb said:

Many traders see the same entries , but a good trader will filter out the randomness with a great method with an advantage.

Click to expand...

All set-ups are self-fulfilling prophecies, since you have decided beforehand that a particular set of circumstances represents a set-up.

A good trader distinguishes themselves from an average one by having additional parameters that represent a filtering set-up.

A great method is just a more finely-tuned set-up.

For example, from experience, when I started off using MA crossovers, I stopped taking every cross-over if after 3 conseq losses, I looked back and deemed a range had formed, identified the top and bottom of the range, and only took further MA crossovers outside of the range.

Sorry, maybe I am being pedantic, but arent all set-ups self-fulfilling?

I think when self-fulfilling is stated, it is implied that it only worked because a lot of people thought it would work and traded that. But does that mean all setups are self-fulfilling? Not sure. Things can happen that almost nobody thought would happen. Things can happen for a fundamental reason, and would happen regardless of whether a large number of traders believe it will happen and trade on it.

The brain is often looking for set ups that do not exist , but sill see similar set up as a valid set up .

What are you looking for ? A ranging market , reversal or head and shoulders?What will you see ?

EUR/USD

15 min tlb said:

The brain is often looking for set ups that do not exist , but sill see similar set up as a valid set up .

Click to expand...

So what is it you would define as a "valid" set up? I would suggest that a "valid" set up is one that satisfies your own take on things whether or not that happens to fit in with the text books or not.

barjon said:

So what is it you would define as a "valid" set up? I would suggest that a "valid" set up is one that satisfies your own take on things whether or not that happens to fit in with the text books or not.

Click to expand...

I would agree on that.Interesting.