Getafix - ISA Portfolio etc

Hi All, I have decided to record my venture into this new world of finance. My area of expertise is sports betting but wanted to take advantage of the tax free ISAs each of us (in the UK) are entitled to.
Here I will record my thoughts and investments over the coming year(s). I intend to invest using this and next years stocks and shares maximum isa allowance.
I am looking to add a new stock every month or so until the funds are used up. This is a bit of an adventure so to start with I may not set/adhere to a list of rules to follow as I am likely to change my mind when and if necessary.

I am looking to apply what I use in my sports betting and see whether it transfers well to the world of stocks and shares? This is mainly through the concepts of value (mainly quantitive analysis).

If anybody does read this thread, I would be very grateful of comments/criticisms on my forthcoming selections. There seems so many ways to invest in the same thing i.e., CFDs, Shares, Spread Betting stocks etc so sometimes I may not make the most cost effective decision (though I will certainly strive to get this correct).
Adhering to the ISA will make things easier (and harder) as CFDs can't be used etc so again feedback much appreciated from those with more experience .

Shortly, I am looking to post a few medium term trades that I intend to last 3-6 months - against the grain of this thread as I'll predominantly be looking for long-term investments - most likely stocks. Just a bit of fun (well kind of), the gambler in me perhaps. I can't post them though until the Japanese stock market gets into full flow and I am matched. I'll then present my ideas for you all to criticise (if anyone reads)?

I'll be watching with interest Getafix. I've been trading in an ISA for about 3 years and started a journal on here a few months or so back. So it might have some useful info in it for you of what not to do. Here's the link:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/106346-trading-isa-pay-off-my-mortgage.html

I'll be watching too. I do mainly UK, French and German stocks small and big, long and short.

I don't post my trades (here or anywhere else) as I don't want to add an extra layer to the psychological process of investing but I occasionally post on equity forums about ideas.

Good Luck.

Thanks guys I'll reply tomorrow as way too late and my brain not working at this late hour!

My idea was to go with Sharp and Nintendo, I'll explain tomorrow!

The basic thoughts behind these buys. The main idea is the pending release of Nintendo's new "Gameboy" 3DS. With the latest news of the release of a Sony Phone that plays old playstation games, I thought would be a good time to enter the market as I believe this will be little threat but is reason for recent lull of price. I am gambling on the fact that the 3DS will be a success, mainly down to the new innovative 3D technology (without need for glasses). Looking at the charts, around the time of the Wii release there was a large surge to the price (well I'm assuming this is the reason and not just a market beta influence). I am hoping thhat the "gadget" factor alone will be a reason for the price to increase. The 3DS gets released in Japan this month followed by the US and Europe in March. I am not sure how long to hold onto this position but I am hoping for a gain of around 30%. If this happens it may be the case of adding a stop limit.

The main negative to this release is the emerging phones market (to do with leisure/games). Take the iphone for example, that has proved massive. The catch up of Android technology is an extra pointer. The problem with the 3DS is (as far as I am aware) is that it does not have phone capabilities so it is a gaming device only. Shame, well that is why I have also bought into Sharp. Sharp developed the 3D screen being used in the 3DS. Sharp are developing phones using this screen technology (Galapagos) so if the 3DS is a hit, I gamble on the fact of Android phones wanting to use this techonology and thus an increase in Sharps price.

The main gamble is on Nintendo with, I suppose, an insurance on Sharp.

My reasoning was fine, the putting into practise was the difficult thing. I have phoned 5 of the big isa self select services and non of them allow you to purchase Japan stocks! In fact only one (I thnk Barclays) allowed you to buy non-isa shares in Japan stocks BUT with a minimum 10% (£100) commission. Too much (I am taking it easy to begin with while I learn) esp when taking into consideration the taxes on profits etc.

So the only solution left was to use a spreadbetting company at the risk of an expiry date in September! This I think will be enough time with the last releases in March and then interest etc.

I went with IGIndex. I would in reality would have much preferred to hold onto Sharp as the gamble above will probably need much longer than September to produce maximised profit. (If anyone knows where i can get Japanese stocks in an ISA - please let me know).

Anyway, one final mention this is not how I will regularly be looking to invest, I see this more of a gamble, I will be hoping to use company information balance sheets etc to find what I consider value.

Nintendo 10p a pt @ 24488
Sharp £2.50 a pt @ 897.6

alphahunter said:

...
I don't post my trades (here or anywhere else) as I don't want to add an extra layer to the psychological process of investing but I occasionally post on equity forums about ideas...

Good Luck.

Click to expand...

Thanks, I hope I am not setting myself up to be humiliated if I lose it all lol .

Nintendo is listed on the Nasdaq in the US under symbol NTDOY I believe and in Germany under symbol NTO

Thanks Isatrader I did see those, however, every company I phoned said they didn't supposrt these still!? Perhaps too little liquidty?


Seems I hadn't researched my idea well enough with Sharp - if only I had left it s couple of days. Found out today (Radio of all media), that LG are releasing a 3D phone. Will be interesting what happens in next few months!

Will be an interesting couple of week (possibly make or break) with the release of the 3DS in Japan on the 26th! Both stocks currently in profit:

Nintendo +£107.10
Sharp +£87.75

With the sad events in Japan, I am certain these 2 shares will be a loser come the spreadbet expiry in September. It is really tragic what is going on over there and has compelled me to donate a proportion of the returns from these 2 stocks to a related Japanese charity come September.

On a more positive note, my stock screening is almost complete and so I will be looking to make a start at the beginning of April. I will be looking to add and remove stocks on a quarterly basis.

Nintendo -£328.80 (max liability: £2448.80)
Sharp -£406 (max liability: £2240)

I often find that reading books on subjects such as sports predictions / investment are a waste of time in 90% of books. Useless information you already know. Though on the odd occassion you find a small nugget of gold in the worst of books! My most recent nugget is that of the ISM Manufacturing Index.

"A monthly index released by the Institute of Supply Management which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100" taken from http://www.investorwords.com/6847/ISM_manufacturing_index.html

Interesting how the recent problems were also predicted as can be seen here:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26639.html

I will use this index to pull out of growth stocks if it looks like a recession is imminent. Probably moving money to a safer vehicle until direction confirmed.

It looks best to compare against US GDP. It seems to warrant more notice when the index is close to GDP i.e., the ISM can be at 50 but the GDP still above 50 i.e., 52. in this situation best to wait til the GDP falls to 50 mark to prevent false reading. It also looks a good idea to start buying stock on the first distinct reversal of ISM when under 50 (usually around 45 mark or worse). Not sure if this is possible in reality as from what I can see GDP is worked out quarterly? More study required.

The ISM index can be found here:
http://www.ism.ws
Need to click the left hand menu item entitled "ISM report on Business", then click "Latest Manufacturing ROB.

For GDP the best source I have found so far is here:
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp

I did some historical backtesting with the use of the ISM index but found it to be of little use as trying to avoid the market also meant losing out at the point of recovery so I have decided to ignore. One important point learnt though was the effects of overtrading by going long in time periods of recession. Another positive of long term investment!

Have finally created my proper portfolio using this and last years ISA allowance.

Type EPIC Qty PricePaid InvestedAmt SDRT Comm CurrentPrice
A IPF 972 347.77 £3,380.32 £16.90 1.5 341.9
A FXPO 711 475.18 £3,378.53 £16.89 1.5 479.6
A BWNG 1240 272.51 £3,379.12 £16.90 1.5 266.9
B NAR 5793 61 £3,533.73 £17.67 10 61
B RWD 1070 330.25 £3,533.68 £17.67 10 331.25
B KESA 3183 111.1 £3,536.31 £17.68 10 111.1

Formatting all screwed up! Hmpf!

Courier and Code =

That'll do!

Added some more for partner's allowance:


Waiting for CKN to drop below 1200 for final selection!

Running at a loss at the moment as expected with less than half down to commission paid:
-621
(of which 275 is commission/sdrt paid)

Now to forget for a few months (well apart from keeping an eye on CKN)!