Trend Direction Question for a newb, Please Help

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cpark0912

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Hello All,

I am new to trading and had a question on determining the trend to trade with., I attached a picture and as you can see it looks like there was a trend up for a while and then looked to turn down. The OVERALL trend still looks up to me but when we place trades would we go with the longer looking up trend or more current down trend?

Thanks in Advance
-CP
 

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It makes no different what direction you trade in. The trend will go opposite to the direction you want until you exit your trade at a loss.

If this is hard to believe, then believe your own trade history. It has a known characteristic even though I have never seen it.
 
Look at the red line I've drawn, I think it defines the trend pretty well. Whist the price is above it and finds support on it, this up trend is intact. Notice however the the price ducks through it on the right. At this point I'd say the trend was broken. This can herald many scenarios, but one of them could be a new down trend. In summary, research and practice drawing trend lines to help you understand the structure of the market.
 

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cpark0912 said:
Hello All,

I am new to trading and had a question on determining the trend to trade with., I attached a picture and as you can see it looks like there was a trend up for a while and then looked to turn down. The OVERALL trend still looks up to me but when we place trades would we go with the longer looking up trend or more current down trend?

Thanks in Advance
-CP
Click to expand...


Just to add I agree with cbrads' comments above.

Trading with the trend is low risk relative to other strategies you could pick up but it needs careful planning and discipline when you do it. It is key to accept very few charts show just one trend, and deciding which is the one to guide your particular trade. For some quite sensible guidance on trend-following have a look at Rayner Teo's clips on Youtube.

Keep in mind, the indicators and price action you see are a guide to what you COULD do, not to what the market WILL do.
 
cpark0912 said:
Hello All,

I am new to trading and had a question on determining the trend to trade with., I attached a picture and as you can see it looks like there was a trend up for a while and then looked to turn down. The OVERALL trend still looks up to me but when we place trades would we go with the longer looking up trend or more current down trend?

Thanks in Advance
-CP
Click to expand...

Trend is highly subjective , this is why no-one can give a clear answer , it is all very clear after the event.
 
june_girl7 said:
That happens to me many times that whenever I consider a trade going to be positive it goes to wrong moves and face loss.
Click to expand...

80 % of the time the markets chops , unless you are blinkered trend trading promoter .
 

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foroom lluzers said:
Thank you team!

The team is trying to promote trend trading in hindsight.
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Don't try and deflect attention, you have been repeatedly exposed as a charlatan and a buffoon. The OP asked a specific question in relation to defining trends and I answered him specifically. At no point did I 'promote trend trading in hindsight'. If I did, please show me where.
 
cbrads said:
Don't try and deflect attention, you have repeatedly be exposed as a charlatan and a buffoon. The OP asked a specific question in relation to defining trends and I answered him specifically. At no point did I 'promote trend trading in hindsight'. If I did, please show me where.
Click to expand...

In this thread , you drew subjective trend lines after the event , that is called hindsight education.

All you hindsight trend traders are asked to show a journal of live advance calls on trends set ups , but none of you can or want to do it.

Absolute rubbish!

You don't even know what you are talking about.
 

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foroom lluzers said:
In this thread , you drew subjective trend lines after the event , that is called hindsight education.

All you hindsight trend traders are asked to show a journal of live advance calls on trends set ups , but none of you can or want to do it.
Click to expand...

Well, we'll let the OP be the judge of that and don't get me started on your 'live advance calls' :LOL:
 
foroom lluzers said:
In this thread , you drew subjective trend lines after the event , that is called hindsight education.

All you hindsight trend traders are asked to show a journal of live advance calls on trends set ups , but none of you can or want to do it.

Absolute rubbish!

You don't even know what you are talking about.
Click to expand...

You've just drawn 'subjective trend lines after the event', You are 'promoting trend trading in hindsight'. You are a hypocrite, shame on you(n):sleep:
 
cpark0912 said:
Hello All,

I am new to trading and had a question on determining the trend to trade with., I attached a picture and as you can see it looks like there was a trend up for a while and then looked to turn down. The OVERALL trend still looks up to me but when we place trades would we go with the longer looking up trend or more current down trend?

Thanks in Advance
-CP
Click to expand...


A common way to confirm a trend is in place is to use moving averages. A longer period EMA confirms a longer-term trend, a shorter period EMA confirms a short-term trend. Also, use two EMA's - if the shorter is above the longer, the trend is very probably up. Note that each can be in opposite directions.

e.g. price is above upwards sloping 200EMA confirm long-term uptrend; 20EMA above the 50EMA to confirm short-term uptrend.

You can trade against one of the trends but this is higher risk, as your trade might look like it has good prospects on one view, but is about to run into resistance on the other. Trying to pick top or bottom reversal points so that you can trade against both/all currently active trends is very difficult and high risk.
 
cbrads said:
You've just drawn 'subjective trend lines after the event', You are 'promoting trend trading in hindsight'. You are a hypocrite, shame on you(n):sleep:
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You want noobs to follow your post rather than my criticism of your post?

Change your signature to

Mr trend trader Dennis withdrew from such capital management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered losses of$60 million reportedly lost in 1987–1988.

I suggest you lot stop peddling this trend trading crap.
 
foroom lluzers said:
You want noobs to follow your post rather than my criticism of your post?
Click to expand...

In a word: YES:LOL:

I believe my post was relevant and useful to the OP's question. Your criticism of my post demonstrates your complete lack of understanding of the context of either the original post or my reply.

As usual, you are soiling a perfectly good thread with your dogmatic, parrot-like horse shít. It's unfair on the OP to spoil his thread like this. As such, I will stop posting here in the hope that you do the same and the thread gets back on track.

I'll leave you to have the last word - make it good.
 
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darktone said:
For the benefit of the OP

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/224896-20-30-profitable-dow-dax-weekly-100-ticks-profit-44.html#post2947552
Click to expand...

That does not mean your team is not trying to promote trend trading in hindsight.All your team members have been asked to prove with live calls in advance "that trend trading works!You all start becoming evasive , defensive and aggressive , you want new traders to lose their money trying to catch trends?

All you hindsight trend traders are asked to show a journal of live advance calls on trends set ups , but none of you can or want to do it.

Just retire at 75 from trading.

 
I'm glad I deleted the post I made yesterday evening. FL and EJ have turned this into the usual mess.

But at least the OP saw it.
 
dbphoenix said:
I'm glad I deleted the post I made yesterday evening. FL and EJ have turned this into the usual mess.

But at least the OP saw it.
Click to expand...

I saw it too. It was typical curve fitter drivel of it might go up or it might go down, no use to anyone. Foroom does have a point, you are unable to demonstrate a profitable forward prediction even if your life depends on it.

Foroom was further right about curve fitter aggression. I was minding my own business and relaying my own experience. But you want to drag me into it. Once I am in I tend to go all the way.
 
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