Do people who are into technical analysis actually spend the whole day staring at graphs waiting to spot the various patterns emerge? Or do they write computer programmes to tell them when the patterns are emerging? I'm not suggesting a computer programme to place the trades, but rather one to give an alert whenever the patterns emerge. Must be incredibly boring watching a graph for the patterns yourself if you don't have a computer programme, surely?
Talbs!
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Hi Arbu, If your day trading and looking at 5 / 10 Min charts these patterns emerge all the time, also news coming out / figures etc day the day can fly by. There are on the other hand days when the market is flat and not much going on ! Take the rough with the smooth i suppose !
HowardCohodas
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Yes. Yes. Yes.
Yes, some people do stare at graphs. Not all the pattern recognition the brain is capable of has been captured in algorithms and programmed into computers.
Yes, we write computer programs when we can identify and test the logic we perceive the brain is doing that spots the patterns we see.
Yes it is boring to watch a graph. Sometimes it's the advantage you have.
Thanks BG. When I've been on trading floors I've often been surprised by the amount of sitting around that's going on. That's why I've supposed that people are just waiting for these patterns. But if they're happening all the time then I suppose there's no need for a computer programme to alert you to them.
shadowninja
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Trading is, frankly, ****ing boring. I consider it a bit like fishing but without mud and water.
Still, if you can get a computer to do much of the work for you, it shouldn't be too boring. My ambition in life is to get computers to make my living for me.
If you were taking positions because you had inspiration, out of wisdom you've accumulated over the years, because of your sound judgement, I would think it could be very fulfilling. But if you're just looking for a head and shoulders pattern to trade off, then I think, yes, it must be ****ing boring. I suspect that the sad truth is that the latter approach is the way that works much better.
HowardCohodas
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Your assuming that all insights the brain is capable of can be captured in computer programs. I worked in AI (artificial intelligence), specifically pattern recognition, for a number of years, and my experience is that we are ten to thirty years from that ability.
If you can do better, the US Pentagon has several billion dollars to help you develop your ideas.
shadowninja
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Oh, sure, if your computer is trading for you and you're busy being massaged by a hot Swedish blonde on your megayacht then trading won't be boring at all.
shadowninja
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Well, I can code stuff but I cannot code what I am looking for, sadly.
Thing is, profitable trading is very fulfilling, wisdom or otherwise. But it's still boring!!
If you find trading to be anything like, for instance, riding a snowboard down a powdered slope, then I suspect something isn't right. Perhaps, there's a gambling addiction you need to address. Increasing size is the usual argument to make it more fun - I've risked 100% of my account in the past. Was it more fun? No. It was certainly scary like in a way your wife says, "That's it, I've had enough, I'm leaving you." Neither experiences were fun.
Ambrose Ackroyd
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Scary possibly, a blessing most definitely.
In your experience, would you go so far as to suggest that we may capture consciousness/self-awareness in software 30 years from now?
HowardCohodas
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I'd consider it a huge leap just to understand, quantify and/or define metrics for such concepts. We still have arguments about whether some animal species are self-aware. Our understanding of such concepts is very primitive.
There are many computer scientists who disagree with me. But many in the field said we were just 10 years away from such abilities for the last 25 years. It's like we are always 10 to 20 years away from having a practical fusion reactor and have been so for about 25 years.
Talbs!
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Arbu all depends how u trade, yes there are head and shoulder patterns etc but thats for long term trading, i tend to look at daily 's and see where the long term trend is going then use my shortterm charts to trade around it ! It all depends what your trading !
For sure, it depends on your own trading style. But a computer can identify a trend, and tell you when a price is above or below that trend. At the moment I tend to look at graphs at fairly arbitrary times to see if it's worth trading. It would be better if my computer could tell me when to look at them.
Talbs!
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Cause they can , there are so many funds out there with these trading models, but thats the joy of being human, you know where these levels are that will trigger buying selling/ so maybe you can try and jump the gun and get in before they buy/sell ! use it to your advantage
I've been range trading the FTSE today, and yes, it is boring. I can see that the better you get at this, the more boring it becomes. And of course then it's the money that keeps you in it. Although maybe if you have a computer programme that you're continually refining to try to capture your strategy, that might keep your interest in.
Yeah, I'm at home. I'm following the suggestion on here http://www.proptraders.net/free-prop-trader-training/ to go through a self taught training course and save myself a packet against paying for one. Maybe I'd do better to hire a space in an office with other traders so I'd have someone to discuss things with.
I'm trading the FTSE cos one of my spreadbetting providers has offered me £100 back on any losses I make in the next few days and the FTSE was an obvious choice, and yes, I am from the UK. I'm partly hedging my bets with another spreadbetting provider so that I'm guaranteed to make some money out of it, but if I trade well I will make more money. I'm thinking of it as a training exercise, since the amounts of money involved are not large.
P.S. Just checked your profile. I like your boat. Let me know if you've got any jobs going where you work!
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Talbs!
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The problem is trading at an arcade is costly so trading at home is certainly the way forward. But id look at some thing with more volatility like fx . You get the swings even when markets are quiet. Try not to trade all day sitting on your own is going to be no good for anybody. Not sure about hedging with another spreader either as your making on one and losing on the other. I assume your looking at charts at home ? What sort of things technical analysis are you looking at ?
