The Twitter IPO stock chat discussion thread

[Mr. Crabs]

Also you can bash or rave about Facebook stock as well. I suggest bashing FB as that's the side I'll be on as the price tanks from here. I'm surprised no one else made a twitter thread.

Twitters coming out with an IPO and I'm stoked to see how it turns out. So much excitement I can hardly contain myself.

Anyway, here's a thread dedicated to Twitters' stock. Rave or rant about it but most importantly speculate about the price.

In my opinion Twitter is a much better buy than Facebook. Facebook lacks longevity as well as profits - clearly. $50M in profits does not even come close to justifying a $100B market cap. How absurd for a website that might die out over the course of a single decade. So that being said I think FB is a STRONG sell at this point. All the smart money should switch short on FB and long on Twitter. What a stupid pricing for FB it's practically unbelievable. What a stunt.

As for twitter I have my own prediction. It will open up with a strong initial bounce up $3 or so. After that it will trade in a tight range and slack for a couple months. After that smooth sailing to 100%+ gains long-term.

We'll see if I'm correct or not, feel free to make your own predictions. Isn't that what trading forums are about anyway?

 

[CityMasterTrader]

Whether TWTR makes money or not is almost immaterial. Long-term investors will be buying for its potential to become profitable; short-term traders will be trading based on what they think everyone else will do with the shares when it debuts. If it’s the latter you’re focused on, the media build-up might provide a good indication of what we might expect tomorrow. Grey markets suggesting $23bn vs IPO pricing of $15bn. Another LNKD jump?

My only concern is the-last minute hike in the IPO pricing range to $23-$25 from $17-20. I know demand has been high, but FB did the same thing just before it IPOs to ensure a $100bn market cap and we all know what happened with that one. Or will TWTR’s NYSE listing and more conservative pricing be its saviour versus Facebook’s face-plant on Nasdaq?
We’ll see tomorrow. Exciting stuff indeed.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Right on looks like we're on the same page

My only concern is the-last minute hike in the IPO pricing range to $23-$25 from $17-20. I know demand has been high, but FB did the same thing just before it IPOs to ensure a $100bn market cap and we all know what happened with that one. Or will TWTR’s NYSE listing and more conservative pricing be its saviour versus Facebook’s face-plant on Nasdaq?

The hike in price concerned me, not in the success of the company or stock in the long - term, but my confidence in my prediction that it would bounce about 5% early after the IPO and then slack. Now I think it will open flat and then grudgingly move down for several days-weeks-months before it ramps up the price for the long-term. Now I think it will find its' way below $20 before moving beyond $27. That being said I think support above $17 will be too hard to crack. Opening short sellers will put their foot down on the ask I presume considering this is an attractive long-term play and they will want to beat down the price while the fund-raising shares are offered so they can get a better average and coax weak hands to drop their positions.

Amazing that they got away with about doubling the cash value supply of their IPO. What a crock.

 

[CityMasterTrader]

The hike in price concerned me, not in the success of the company or stock in the long - term, but my confidence in my prediction that it would bounce about 5% early after the IPO and then slack. Now I think it will open flat and then grudgingly move down for several days-weeks-months before it ramps up the price for the long-term. Now I think it will find its' way below $20 before moving beyond $27. That being said I think support above $17 will be too hard to crack. Opening short sellers will put their foot down on the ask I presume considering this is an attractive long-term play and they will want to beat down the price while the fund-raising shares are offered so they can get a better average and coax weak hands to drop their positions.

Amazing that they got away with about doubling the cash value supply of their IPO. What a crock.

So pricing is at $26, over 50% above the lower end of the original range. This signals strong demand amongst institutions which I see contributing to a decent pop this afternoon. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a $40-something print early on. Agree that those who missed out want to get in at better price, but are you sure that short sellers able to do so immediately? Surely it takes a little while to get stock on borrow. I think we are more likely to see some of the lucky IPOers dump at a profit, but remember only a small stake has been listed and public demand likely huge.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Twitter blew my mind

So pricing is at $26, over 50% above the lower end of the original range. This signals strong demand amongst institutions which I see contributing to a decent pop this afternoon. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a $40-something print early on. Agree that those who missed out want to get in at better price, but are you sure that short sellers able to do so immediately? Surely it takes a little while to get stock on borrow. I think we are more likely to see some of the lucky IPOers dump at a profit, but remember only a small stake has been listed and public demand likely huge.

I should have known not to have been so conservative in my predictions when it comes to a company with such a small market cap and such massive brand recognition.

Clearly short-sellers are not going to be given much room until the hype for this stock has begun to die down. I think this could be the markets' favorite all month.

Personally I wouldn't have shorted, mostly because the market cap is so small, hardly any real capital gains could be attained on the short-side. But I did consider the notion that others would. The vast majority of the capital gains to be had will be reaped by the long-term investors who take the liberty to buy the swings and grace the tops with shorts, just to keep the price fluctuating smoothly in order for them to be able to soak up even more shares.

This thing is not going back below $20.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

To clarify

I should have known not to have been so conservative in my predictions when it comes to a company with such a small market cap and such massive brand recognition.

Clearly short-sellers are not going to be given much room until the hype for this stock has begun to die down. I think this could be the markets' favorite all month.

Personally I wouldn't have shorted, mostly because the market cap is so small, hardly any real capital gains could be attained on the short-side. But I did consider the notion that others would. The vast majority of the capital gains to be had will be reaped by the long-term investors who take the liberty to buy the swings and grace the tops with shorts, just to keep the price fluctuating smoothly in order for them to be able to soak up even more shares.

This thing is not going back below $20.

I'm not saying shorting all the way up here is a bad idea considering the market cap has doubled. But I would wait for the hype to die down and the profit taking to kill the bulls enthusiasm. People will be clearing positions above $50 and loading shorts from there. But it could stay up there for well over a month.

This really was an impressive play.

 

[WR1]

well, someone's going to make loads of money
and someone's going to loose loads of money

neither of the above will be me
what we can be sure of is, the Market makers will make plenty...

maybe the coin toss method works on these IPOs ?

 

[spinola]

Plenty of adds and blowin smoke up the **** of the exchange guys on twitter today.

' Wow , bob you really did a good job of covering on twitters opening price today '


er, isn't bob just like, repeating a price to camera ? WOW !

I have a twitter account, but don't really use it. Any fans of the app here , and how or what do you use for ? following news tweets or mates ?

Old Patrick Stewart (Stark Trek) said he is a new user and it lets his fans see he's not a stiff actor, but who he is , a clown (his words).

He also said it's his main connection for his work world these days now, transformative , even with the new type of work offers he gets from within the industry.

So it looks like it has a long way to go yet ?

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I'd bet on TWTR over FB

Plenty of adds and blowin smoke up the **** of the exchange guys on twitter today.

' Wow , bob you really did a good job of covering on twitters opening price today '


er, isn't bob just like, repeating a price to camera ? WOW !

I have a twitter account, but don't really use it. Any fans of the app here , and how or what do you use for ? following news tweets or mates ?

Old Patrick Stewart (Stark Trek) said he is a new user and it lets his fans see he's not a stiff actor, but who he is , a clown (his words).

He also said it's his main connection for his work world these days now, transformative , even with the new type of work offers he gets from within the industry.

So it looks like it has a long way to go yet ?

TWTR has longevity. I think decades from now people will still be using twitter, whether to follow celebrities or whatever. No one can compete with twitter on what it does and it's become a staple of the internet.

Personally I just follow celebrities. But it works in social circles considering the private settings. I think twitter is going to stay a classic hit while facebook is going out of style. The only major thing facebook has now is a place for people to advertise bull**** to each other and the chat room feature and the group feature which has already gotten old.

I've been on twitter for over a year now and it still hasn't gotten old, I don't think it ever will.

As for some people making boatloads of money - they already have. A billion in profits have probably been taken by this point. Billions more to go. I think a good range for this market cap will be between $20 billion and $50 billion. People will be making money all the way through.

Big opening day for a classic new entrant into the NYSE. IMO it's going to stay in the 'favorites' list of traders for a long time. This market cap combined with stock recognition makes it a choice stock to keep in the watch list on the daily.

 

[spinola]

OK cheers.

hmm, is there an app that you can get to push your twitter tweet, into your facebook feed ?

One log in, and best of both worlds. Facebook launching their live video live streaming , so people can stream live video to their news feed too.

I'll re look at my twtitter, got a few folks on it, like jim rogers, max keiser etc... but I'm not in the practice of using it. My family seem to use facebook, so I like the idea of pushing twitter tweets to my facebook news feed.

 

[CityMasterTrader]

I should have known not to have been so conservative in my predictions when it comes to a company with such a small market cap and such massive brand recognition.

Clearly short-sellers are not going to be given much room until the hype for this stock has begun to die down. I think this could be the markets' favorite all month.

Personally I wouldn't have shorted, mostly because the market cap is so small, hardly any real capital gains could be attained on the short-side. But I did consider the notion that others would. The vast majority of the capital gains to be had will be reaped by the long-term investors who take the liberty to buy the swings and grace the tops with shorts, just to keep the price fluctuating smoothly in order for them to be able to soak up even more shares.

This thing is not going back below $20.

Some handsome profits made by IPOers, and not just for the founders. If long term investors make it easy and call the top for us, I’d be up for some swing trading on a such a liquid name. Round number $50 could well prove a hurdle. I also see support at $40 for a while, a nice simple range. Let us know how you get on.

 

[pennystockwhizzkid]

History shows that Twitter's share price will take a nosedive.. Look at similar IPO's like Facebook, Groupon, Zynga.. It's current valuation is crazy for a company that has lost $300 million in the last 3 years. Twitter may end up being wildly successful and actually deserving of a $25B market cap, but right now it isn't.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Interesting idea spinola

OK cheers.

hmm, is there an app that you can get to push your twitter tweet, into your facebook feed ?

One log in, and best of both worlds. Facebook launching their live video live streaming , so people can stream live video to their news feed too.

I'll re look at my twtitter, got a few folks on it, like jim rogers, max keiser etc... but I'm not in the practice of using it. My family seem to use facebook, so I like the idea of pushing twitter tweets to my facebook news feed.

Also that facebook live video streaming should spice things up. Props to facebook. As for your idea of streaming twits to facebook, I haven't heard of that.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I think a lot of profits were taken

Some handsome profits made by IPOers, and not just for the founders. If long term investors make it easy and call the top for us, I’d be up for some swing trading on a such a liquid name. Round number $50 could well prove a hurdle. I also see support at $40 for a while, a nice simple range. Let us know how you get on.

And a lot of positions were built. The price slacked today so I think we will move down for a bit of time and will see some staunch resistance below $50 for the remainder of this quarter.

I think for day traders a smart idea would be: bias towards buying under $45 and bias towards selling over $45. I think it will stay in the $40 - $50 range for a while until it lets off some steam. Then after the raving dies down it will capitulate and hold bearish in the $20-40 range. Give a chance for those who took some huge profits above $40 to re-invest. That's what the sequence of events here has led me to speculate. OF course my timing is likely to re-calibrate with time as well as my speculative price ranges. But as for now there are hardly any tells what's going to happen so I will keep my figures loose.

 

[CityMasterTrader]

And a lot of positions were built. The price slacked today so I think we will move down for a bit of time and will see some staunch resistance below $50 for the remainder of this quarter.

I think for day traders a smart idea would be: bias towards buying under $45 and bias towards selling over $45. I think it will stay in the $40 - $50 range for a while until it lets off some steam. Then after the raving dies down it will capitulate and hold bearish in the $20-40 range. Give a chance for those who took some huge profits above $40 to re-invest. That's what the sequence of events here has led me to speculate. OF course my timing is likely to re-calibrate with time as well as my speculative price ranges. But as for now there are hardly any tells what's going to happen so I will keep my figures loose.

Last week I did wonder whether the 30s would be visited, and they were briefly. But support emerged. Interesting how the hype has already died down versus Facebook last year. The disadvantage of an orderly listing I guess. Like you I see the $40 range for a while.

 

[Purple Brain]

Saw a fundamental analysis in the Economist which suggested $18 was fair value.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I don't think we'll see prices drop under $30.

Saw a fundamental analysis in the Economist which suggested $18 was fair value.

Unless a major market event dictates it. A recession panic or some disaster within the company.

Institutions will buy up tons in the low $40's high $30's. The market cap is too small for them to let it slide off that far IMO.

This things price won't be pegged to its' profits for a long long time.

 

[CityMasterTrader]

Saw a fundamental analysis in the Economist which suggested $18 was fair value.

The trouble with a company not yet making a profit, often the case in tech and especially social media, is that it’s difficult if not impossible to value. You either have to use different metrics, or you have to make a call on when you think it will become profitable. If you are investing it’s on the prospect of it becoming profitable. If you are trading its trying to second guess everyone else in the near term. $18 is interestingly close to the initial price range of $17-20. I really don’t know what it is worth. Sounds low, but can’t be discounted. A bit like TWTRs cash flows!

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Weak open this week for twitter.

Considering it's under $40 I think it will accumulate a bit and then move up early this week.

IT should churn its' way down around $35 within the mod-term IMO but as for this week I think scooping up some under $40 to sell around $41-$43 would be a decent idea. As a matter of fact the chart looks like it's scooping up as we speak, buying now could prove an easy $.50-$1.50 gain before the market closes today.

I've got a feeling day-traders are going to ramp this one up beginning before power hour.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I'm digging the price action on TWTR I think that the price is about to get released for the bulls to take advantage of.