Bid-A-Tool

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How many people have called for a crash over the past few years? I have seen lots. One of them was bound to get close one day. Bid-A-Tool came close but I don't think a 300 point move in the wrong direction after his first call for a crash is good enough.

The recent move hardly shows on a long term chart, so it might be a bit early to compare this to previous market crashes.

Bigbusiness said:

How many people have called for a crash over the past few years? I have seen lots. One of them was bound to get close one day. Bid-A-Tool came close but I don't think a 300 point move in the wrong direction after his first call for a crash is good enough.

The recent move hardly shows on a long term chart, so it might be a bit early to compare this to previous market crashes.

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Well there have been lots of bears in t 2 w and long b4 BAT came along so i agree...this crash of sorts has been long anticipated...

Timing anything on this scale is hard work ....there's always room for one last push up or push down.....i guess thats why we don't try catching falling knives or stopping corks with our eyeballs

Just for info ....all markets have been correcting quite heavily....FTSE eg in 7 days has lost the last 6 months gains.!

CV

counter_violent said:

Given that batty was ADAMANT that a crash of sorts was on the way ( personally I'm happy to give some leeway on his timing issues) what do the members now think in relation to the markets levels currently ?... No signs of a let up in these falls yet neither.

We are 4 weeks on and nobody has said a word.

What do you imagine he based his predictions on?

Does anyone know the truth of what he used?

Was anyone given SPECIFIC info etc to evaluate?

We all know he went about things in the wrong manner, but lets put all that on one side.

This isn't about all our methodologies to arrive at the same conclusions or heaven forbid anyone thinking long etc....

What made him so sure ( to the point of busting a gut ) and has he now been proven to be correct.

Lucky Fluke maybe? It's possible but not probable.

C V

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=19358&page=1&pp=10

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I can see how cults start. Why the desperate need to find the new Messiah for traders? The guy predicted Armmageddon and so far we've had a bit of drizzle. The markets have been suffering a bit of bloat and it's the sell in May usual stuff - not the end of the world!

He has not been proven correct in his doomsday prediction what-so-ever. End of...

rols said:

I can see how cults start. Why the desperate need to find the new Messiah for traders?
Who is looking to find a new Messiah I was just asking some simple questions.

The guy predicted Armageddon and so far we've had a bit of drizzle. The markets have been suffering a bit of bloat and it's the sell in May usual stuff - not the end of the world!

According to this logic the sell off is over right ?


He has not been proven correct in his doomsday prediction what-so-ever. End of...

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This is a fact is it ?

I do wish people would learn to read !

CV - you're an intelligent chap. So I can't believe you're asking these questions seriously.

A cursory review (and I'm not going anywhere near it as the memory is still WAY too fresh) of that thread will quite conclusively illustrate BAT was barking. There was no prediction. He changed his mind as easily as his posts. There was no system. He changed what few rules he started out with on a whim and then asked us to help him work out what the rules might be. No problem with a collaborative effort, but he came into the site with his gift to trading humanity.

He then tried to pump and sell his 'system' to members. Several times under different reincarnations. Erm, haven't we seen this before and is this the profile of someone who has really got something worth buying? Is there every anything actually worth buying? Separate issue....

Really, the whole BAT thing was one complete mess and it's fantastic value for money to see how many (self included) couldn't resist jumping in.

It was a bit of fun. Makes no difference whether the market dumps, flats or rises: BAT called nothing at all in terms of time frames. Without that, you're going to be right every time - eventually.

counter_violent said:

Just for info ....all markets have been correcting quite heavily....FTSE eg in 7 days has lost the last 6 months gains.!

CV

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But Bid-A-Tool was predicting a huge drop, he told one person 3,000 points in one day. He couldn't of been more adamant that there was going to be a huge crash the next trading day. Then the markets continued up and he predicted a huge crash again. Not only was his timing way out, the scale of this fall is nothing like what he was predicting. So what is all the fuss about?

TheBramble said:

CV - you're an intelligent chap. So I can't believe you're asking these questions seriously.

A cursory review (and I'm not going anywhere near it as the memory is still WAY too fresh) of that thread will quite conclusively illustrate BAT was barking. There was no prediction. He changed his mind as easily as his posts. There was no system. He changed what few rules he started out with on a whim and then asked us to help him work out what the rules might be. No problem with a collaborative effort, but he came into the site with his gift to trading humanity.

He then tried to pump and sell his 'system' to members. Several times under different reincarnations. Erm, haven't we seen this before and is this the profile of someone who has really got something worth buying? Is there every anything actually worth buying? Separate issue....

Really, the whole BAT thing was one complete mess and it's fantastic value for money to see how many (self included) couldn't resist jumping in.

It was a bit of fun. Makes no difference whether the market dumps, flats or rises: BAT called nothing at all in terms of time frames. Without that, you're going to be right every time - eventually.

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Sure Tony,
I'm with you all the way here and your right about him needing help, in more ways than one



C V

counter_violent said:

Given that batty was ADAMANT that a crash of sorts was on the way ( personally I'm happy to give some leeway on his timing issues) what do the members now think in relation to the markets levels currently ?... No signs of a let up in these falls yet neither.

We are 4 weeks on and nobody has said a word.
.....

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=19358&page=1&pp=10

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erm, actually, I did ask the question a few days ago on another thread, as to what point do we give batsonar credit for his "prediction".

BB pointed out clearly, that the market had risen by at least 300 before the drop came. and the drop, as yet, does not come close to the 3,000 he predicted. ( I am prepared to waive the "in one day" bit )

I am happy with BBs reply. ( here, and on the other thread )
Ultimately, the price action, whether you use MACD, CCI, moon phases, or MA-Xs, would trigger a sell anyway, dependant on ONES OWN methodology.

but he was good fun. sort of miss his manic-ness.

no fuss to fuss about unless you hold stocks, have a tracker funder or trade the indexes..... could it not be ye old double top reaction? also im aware well, i eyeballed a dow chart last year sometime that we may be approaching a 70 year ish trend line stemming from dow 1000 ish give or take a couple hundred points........ starting hmmm 1934 ish.... till now...... 70 years yes......... will it test that line? not for the sake of ohh theres a line lets test it but........ it will be interesting to see if it takes that line out........ when it gets there , this debt in the us, hmmm , dunno but I think capitalists may be in for a shafting not sure how far below that trend line is at todays date...... or and when/if the price will meet up to test, now and next few years, anyone got a dow chart from back then? I eyeballed this line so big wobbly tolerance bands need to be considered re timing and price zones. .. but remember thinking the dow needs to range trade possibly for a few years 5/8 ish or trade down to meet the line timing ? as quick as it does if it does. .

anyone note Simon, at capital spreads, noticed surge in volumes and suggested "Tin Hats On". a while back ?

lets call it poss. double top reaction, unless it proves otherwise.

does anyone here think the dow will make sustained new highs in todays global environment? I cant see it but I'm nagged constantly about us debt, middle east oil and sneaky human nature generally.


appologies for the waffle , but crikey, I ,you know what in the woods on Stock Indexes.

Bigbusiness said:

How many people have called for a crash over the past few years? I have seen lots. One of them was bound to get close one day. Bid-A-Tool came close but I don't think a 300 point move in the wrong direction after his first call for a crash is good enough.

The recent move hardly shows on a long term chart, so it might be a bit early to compare this to previous market crashes.

Click to expand...

Wouldn't it be way too late for it to be shown there?

FX,

"i eyeballed a dow chart last year sometime that we may be approaching a 70 year ish trend line stemming from dow 1000 ish give or take a couple hundred points........ starting hmmm 1934 ish.... till now...... 70 years yes......... will it test that line? "...have you been hacking my computer...LOL

"anyone got a dow chart from back then? I"...yes ,from 1901 to date in 20 year slots which makes the log scale interesting as you might imagine. I have it all printed down and taped together into one long chart marked to a fair thee well with % moves ,trend lines , interest /inflation rates , commodity prices etc etc. and all yours for the price of one venti caramel latte...still have not figured out how to photocopy something this big

Conceivably the US market could yet make a absolute high without it meaning anything to returns for long term investors...looking back you can clearly see two prior periods of adjustment which have followed periods of massive US growth in stock valuations. They adjusted in radically different ways due to changes in monetary policies and changes to market and banking regulations (arguably). However , what is clear is no market adjustment previously took place following abnormally high periods of P/E without first having taken the trouble to wash out those high P/E's and reduce them to gross under valuations.
I have not yet got up to that point of analysis as it relates to the period of the 2002 lows.
I have seen P/E ratios from one other market for the period following the millenium dump and those P/E's were not yet showing the aggregate undervaluations found in the past so if the US was showing the same data ...well you would have to say that this time was going to be different if you expected a significant period of growth in US stock prices from this point in the P/E trend. I'd be happier about saying that after have I got the US data analysed on my chart.

Last ,but not least all prior major markets slumps have been associated with currency crises.

Long live the BAT SONAR.

Cheers Chump for sharing your insight, your last line

"Last ,but not least all prior major markets slumps have been associated with currency crises."

punctuates the vision of it playing out that way.

Perhaps we need to make space for this one ....

chump said:

FX,

..still have not figured out how to photocopy something this big

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Take it to a good printers and get an A1 or A0 print assembled. Then have it reduced so it can be scanned in their largest scanner, save as file, then email me a copy please!

BTW Good post!

fxmarkets said:

Cheers Chump for sharing your insight, your last line

"Last ,but not least all prior major markets slumps have been associated with currency crises."

punctuates the vision of it playing out that way.

Perhaps we need to make space for this one ....

Click to expand...

So you're the thief!