FTSE100 - May 2005

Hi all,

Back from sunny Madeira so what's been happening? Oh look, it's gone down some more

Interesting, maybe, that we've lifted from the somewhat suspect trendline on the weekly and (on the daily) from the support level apparently established in January. Any further bounce will need to clear 4874 to give an initial indication that the re-action may be over. In the meantime I'm still favouring shorts.

Also included the three bar swing chart which has given three profitable entries. (If you were prepared to consider a bar only 0.1 higher as a higher high and the messy action then you'd have had one losing entry on 4/4). Keep it simple as someone said.

Nice to be back.

Good trading all

jon

Hello barjon

Nice to see you back from your travels.

Thank you for your charts and comments.

Rumour has it that peterpr is being measured for a new bearskin (you may remember that he had to eat his previous one) but this time he is having it fitted with a detachable pair of horns in keeping with his new 'just in case' policy.

I am still in the throes of set-ups.

Regards

bracke

Hi there BJ & Bracke

I am spending rather more time on the e-mini DOW and DAX futures contracts these days. Won't bore you with a litany of why right now.

The Bracke fellow is clairvoyant - see new headgear below

peterpr

Excellent headgear. May your tips stay sharp and your fur silky smooth.

Regards

bracke

mornin' all

late on parade this morning

Well, well yesterday's closed change the trend for me to up. The bold (not me ) will already be in at around 4876 yesterday and rubbing their hands this morning.

good trading all

jon

Such a lot of confusion over what constitutes a 'tend' though isn't there BJ? Mainly connected with trade timeframe I guess.

Here is an update of that old chart I used to post. Still keep a weather eye on it as good background. The lower boundary of the old up channel from last August is still a decent point of reference. The dc from mid February is still very much in play too though, but weakening to a correlation below .9 for the first time today. I will be watching the action around its boundary carefully (touched today btw). Unless there are compelling news/fundamental related reasons for a revision, I will be looking for a sharp reversal from about 4930ish to keep the dc intact. Failing that a touch on the lower line of the August channel.

I certainly haven't caught the scent of new yearly highs beckoning just yet though

peterpr said:

Such a lot of confusion over what constitutes a 'tend' though isn't there BJ? Mainly connected with trade timeframe I guess.

Click to expand...

Peter

Absolutely (even a tRend )

I merely relate it to my swing chart. In this case the break of the previous swing high signals the (potential) change. If it persists it'll gradually get confirmed by going through the earlier swing highs 4993 then 5006 and then taking out the February highs. For the moment it just means I'll switch position size (2x for longs, 1x for shorts) for ftse constituent swing trading but a ftse long entry will depend on the first 3 bar reaction (since I'm not one of the bold boys who are already in). So in some senses I'm in "trend limbo" 'til then. Will need a fall below 4775 to switch back again to favouring shorts.

good trading

jon

"Such a lot of confusion over what constitutes a 'tend' though isn't there BJ? Mainly connected with trade timeframe I guess."

I think the comment by peterpr hits the nail on the head. If you are a day trader you will probably see the trend as up. If you are a longer term holder (weeks/months) you will see a down trend. Horses for courses.

Regards

bracke

bracke

Absolutely (again )

I hope this horse just explained his course.

How's the journal going?

good trading

jon

barjon said:

bracke

Absolutely (again )

I hope this horse just explained his course.

How's the journal going?

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Your course explained. Hope the going is good for you.

No journal posted yet, still working on the set-ups.

Regards

bracke

mmm, Peter nearly deserted to the two Ds, Bracke busy with his set up - surely someone is still interested and making a few pennies via FTSE or shall we just let the thread (and monthly continuations) die the death??

good trading

jon

ps 4900 providing a floor today, wonder if it'll hold to the close.

barjon said:

mmm, Peter nearly deserted to the two Ds, Bracke busy with his set up - surely someone is still interested and making a few pennies via FTSE or shall we just let the thread (and monthly continuations) die the death??

Click to expand...

Jon

I still keep a fairly close eye on Footsie but I'm finding the other two easier to read intra-day real-time. Can't really put my finger on precisely why. Just seem to have more success on them with my present indicator/signal/analysis arsenal. Present modus operandi pretty much rules out DAX and Footsie together as I like to concentrate on one at a time. Mornings spent on Footsie, US mornings spent on Dow.

I'll probably stick my oar in now and again if you do keep it going though.

evenin' all,

Interesting week just gone? I suppose the key question is whether the bounce is just a reaction or something more substantial and the precursor to a continuation of the longer term up trend.

As I noted earlier, the trend I work with has changed to up by virtue of breaking through the last swing high of the downtrend. Those who play the break (I don't) are some 35+ to the good as we move into next week. The change means I'm favouring longs for the moment but I've only got shorts on the radar .

I've got 12 shares from my stable (including 6 of the FTSE top 14) poised for a short signal and if most them trigger I'll be a touch worried about relying on that last FTSE swing high. As you can see from the chart the action that produced it (yellow circle) was messy and there was only just a third higher high (less than a point ). Still, it did give a profitable (small) sell signal.

Do volume followers draw any significance from the falling volume over the last three days?

Whichever way it goes - good trading all.

jon

mmm, talking to myself, but better finish the month at least

8 of the 12 mentioned above did trigger shorts - all still in play with 2 in the red for the moment - and with that and the long ftse entry signalled on Thursday promptly stopped out on Friday it's looking increasingly likely that the messy swing high referred to earlier was false and that the "true" swing high was Tuesday's 4929. I think I'll revert to favouring shorts until and if that (4929) goes.

Friday's action showed a strong bounce off the lows (and a resultant hammer type candle) but DOW weakness after ftse close may bring Friday's low under threat. We shall see.

good trading

jon

Jon

Did a quick update of my old footsie regression channels this morning. Interesting how the 50 and 200DMA's are converging again. Also how the 200 is close to the lower and the 500 right on the upper boundaries of the Feb down channel. My guess is there will be a lot of futures trading attention paid to the 50dma which has turned into resistance.

With the confluence of negative news over the past week or so (retail sales, sentiment, housing, Hedge funds in trouble etc) plus the seasonal factor, it's difficult to envisage much appetite for a determined and sustained thrust higher - aka reversion to an up trend. There's also speculation of massive hedge fund investor redemptions making them forced sellers through June (Sunday Times Yesterday).

Having said all that, I've got a couple of mathematical gizmos based on digital cycle analysis that indicate upward pressure from here through to about mid-June so, as usual. a bit of a mixed picture. On balance, I think a visit to the channel lower boundary is on the cards over the next week or so.

My trading is pretty much exclusively intra-day now so all this is interesting background but not of immediate relevance. It does lead me to remain more wary of getting caught long than short though

mornin' peter

Not a bad intraday combination - you might as well trade the real thing in the afternoon rather than do it second-hand via ftse . Mind you ftse is a bit more sedate about it which suits me and my pulse rate

So far as the longer term is concerned, I'm beginning to get one or two longs coming under starters orders in my swing stable although they're not off yet. If they trigger it would put a tick on the positive side but they are mainly defensive stocks, so I suppose that might rub the tick out

No point guessing though, just watch it and trade it.

good trading

jon

Barjon is not alone

barjon said:

mmm, talking to myself, but better finish the month at least

8 of the 12 mentioned above did trigger shorts - all still in play with 2 in the red for the moment - and with that and the long ftse entry signalled on Thursday promptly stopped out on Friday it's looking increasingly likely that the messy swing high referred to earlier was false and that the "true" swing high was Tuesday's 4929. I think I'll revert to favouring shorts until and if that (4929) goes.

Friday's action showed a strong bounce off the lows (and a resultant hammer type candle) but DOW weakness after ftse close may bring Friday's low under threat. We shall see.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Just an opinion on the chart bars and volume that remind me of matters that interest me when deciding to trade.
Five bars from right sees volume reasonably high but price not making progress and indeed finishing lower = usually selling beating buyers.
These days I only look at FTSE occasionally, preferring evening Dow trades, shares and Dax if I am home in mornings.

neil

mmm, and preceded by falling volume on the way up?

btw isn't it about time you changed your God's stoploss signature for a new Neilism we can all enjoy

good trading

jon

barjon & peterpr

Having read your posts above I am put in mind of a western film in which Bob Hope is about to have a shoot out with a noted gunslinger. As he is making his way to the shoot out site various people give him advice about leaning left, leaning right, leaning back, leaning forward, crouching, walking tall etc. By the time he gets to meet his foe he doesn't know whether he is coming or going.

I suspect that you true vocation should be horticulture - specialising in hedging.

Having stirred the pot I will now retreat and prepare to receive the hedge trimmers onslaught.

Regards

bracke

ps to barjon. Any attempt to ban me will be regarded as an abuse of power but may result in total recant.

Brackey my dear chap, nice to hear from you again.

At first read I thought you were talking about your ongoing work determining your set-up rather than our posts. I suppose you winkled 10 points or so out of the gap this morning

Ban bracke does have a neat alliterative flavour but I wouldn't want to upset your many fans .

good trading

jon

bracke said:

barjon & peterpr

Having read your posts above I am put in mind of a western film in which Bob Hope is about to have a shoot out with a noted gunslinger. As he is making his way to the shoot out site various people give him advice about leaning left, leaning right, leaning back, leaning forward, crouching, walking tall etc. By the time he gets to meet his foe he doesn't know whether he is coming or going.

I suspect that you true vocation should be horticulture - specialising in hedging.

Having stirred the pot I will now retreat and prepare to receive the hedge trimmers onslaught.

Regards

bracke

ps to barjon. Any attempt to ban me will be regarded as an abuse of power but may result in total recant.

Click to expand...