Jerry Olson
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kriesau said:
Hi Kriesau
this is all IRAN related noise.. i think the street will discount this and we'll rally next week, maybe starting late tomorroow...
Hi Kriesau
this is all IRAN related noise.. i think the street will discount this and we'll rally next week, maybe starting late tomorroow...
Hi Jerry,Jerry Olson said:
Well lets see. Oil is still above $69 this morning, Gold is back to $600 and increases in commodity prices still represent an inflationary threat. Speculation about US intentions in Iran are a factor but I think this will soon emerge as sabre rattling disinformation. Main earnings season doesn't really kick off until after the weekend and before that we have the Feb trade deficit, March treasuries and last weeks crude inventories all out today. They still could have a negative impact on sentiment this week.
The wildcard however is the PPT (as usual these days). If they decide to join the party this week then they could always instigate another rally sooner !
Jerry Olson
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kriesau said:
Morning Kriesau
That's my "noise" factor i talk about all the time. we can not trade it so i ignore it all. We are due for a big time bounce here we are deeply oversold right now.
so my outlook has not changed for now.
solentsurfer
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11140 appears to be causing a bit of a problem, 3rd attempt and a bit of a feeble one at that 
Bigbusiness
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I can see a visit back to 11,070 soon. Hope it is today but might have to wait a bit longer.
solentsurfer
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Well, there is a 20pt gap to fill from the open today.Bigbusiness said:
Bigbusiness
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There haven't been many unfilled gap days recently. That will put the mockers on it
DepthTangent
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So with Crude pulling back from 70$ to 68$ (under the influence of traders greed) it takes a little pressure off the bullish Dow traders. I suspect a retracement to 65$ will be required for the Dow to actually encroach within proximity of the all time high. However, all it takes is 2 or 3 massaged weekly crude inventories to realise such a scenario. Alcoa started the week off with strong reports, data today also suggests "everythings rosy" relatively solid support over recent days would indicate to me that we are still in the last wave of a bull market. Buying the dips has been profitable recently and I see no reason why that is likely to change over the next 2 weeks in april given all the aforementioned variables being as they are. Today as ever is an anomaly being easter weekend, difficult to predict todays direction, however the next 2 weeks should see buying dips as a profitable endeavour.
Retrospective analysis: Crude hit 75$, didnt stop the Dow.
Retrospective analysis: Crude hit 75$, didnt stop the Dow.
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Jerry Olson
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DepthTangent said:
Morning
I tend to agree with you and even going to state i think the FOMC on the 9th will be the last rate hike..
I like yields to fall and bonds to rally soon they are at direct opposites on their respective charts.
Crude has hit that triple top as well
so let's see what the street wnats to do
happy holidays to you all...
DepthTangent
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Well Jerry, I must admit that I'am a bear in disguise at the moment, just trying to make a few bucks whilst waiting for the big ride. I will have no problems whatsoever changing my philosophy to all out short. I just hope the US doesn't crash as badly as the inumerable soothsayers predict.
Jerry Olson
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DepthTangent said:
hI DT
soothsayers, hmmm predictors and speculators, i ignore all of them
the charts are having a pullback on all indexs..
i like it long here...but i have been known to be a raging bull too.................... :cheesy:
trading LRCX all morning even scalped aapl long too...
DepthTangent
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The underlying psychology of the price action is absolutely fascinating at this present time. Clearly some of the Dow big boys dont want to see a bear market commence just yet, as the moves we have seen today have been indicative of a recent pattern in the 11160-11300 range. I dare say the velocity upward is just as quick as it is down, and maybe on the whole slightly quicker, something that contradicts the 3-1 ratio of downward movement generally being the faster. This is the underpinning reason for my preference to buy the lows, although it is becoming increasingly easier to short the tops as this range and price action continue to exist.
Saudi TASI down 11.5% last week !
Follows the 22% fall in the Icelandic stock market over the past month !
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20060415032751/secMarkets/pagsaequities/subEquities/chnSaudi%20Arabia%20Equities%20News/obj53B520D0-8F2A-11D4-867000D0B74A0D7C/
NEW YORK (Reuters) Sunday April 16 - A U.S. conflict with Iran could be even more damaging to America's interests than the war with Iraq, former White House counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke wrote in Sunday's New York Times. In an op-ed article co-authored with Steven Simon, a former U.S. State Department official who also worked for the National Security Council, Clarke wrote reports that the Bush administration is contemplating bombing nuclear sites in Iran raised concerns that "would simply begin a multi-move, escalatory process."
Iran's likely response would be to "use its terrorist network to strike American targets around the world, including inside the United States," Clarke and Simon warned. "Iran has forces as its command far superior to anything Al Qaeda was ever able to field," they said, citing Iran's links with the militant group Hezbollah. Iran could also make things much worse in Iraq, they wrote, adding "there is every reason to believe that Iran has such a retaliatory shock wave planned and ready." President George W. Bush might then sanction more bombing, Clarke and Simon said, hoping Iranians would overthrow the Tehran government. But "more likely, the American war against Iran would guarantee the regime decades more of control."
The authors concluded by warning that "the parallels to the run-up to the war with Iraq are all too striking: remember that in May 2002 U.S. President George W. Bush declared that there was 'No war plan on my desk' despite having actually spent months working on detailed plans for the Iraq invasion." Congress "must not permit the administration to launch another war whose outcome cannot be known, or worse, known all too well," they said.
Follows the 22% fall in the Icelandic stock market over the past month !
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20060415032751/secMarkets/pagsaequities/subEquities/chnSaudi%20Arabia%20Equities%20News/obj53B520D0-8F2A-11D4-867000D0B74A0D7C/
NEW YORK (Reuters) Sunday April 16 - A U.S. conflict with Iran could be even more damaging to America's interests than the war with Iraq, former White House counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke wrote in Sunday's New York Times. In an op-ed article co-authored with Steven Simon, a former U.S. State Department official who also worked for the National Security Council, Clarke wrote reports that the Bush administration is contemplating bombing nuclear sites in Iran raised concerns that "would simply begin a multi-move, escalatory process."
Iran's likely response would be to "use its terrorist network to strike American targets around the world, including inside the United States," Clarke and Simon warned. "Iran has forces as its command far superior to anything Al Qaeda was ever able to field," they said, citing Iran's links with the militant group Hezbollah. Iran could also make things much worse in Iraq, they wrote, adding "there is every reason to believe that Iran has such a retaliatory shock wave planned and ready." President George W. Bush might then sanction more bombing, Clarke and Simon said, hoping Iranians would overthrow the Tehran government. But "more likely, the American war against Iran would guarantee the regime decades more of control."
The authors concluded by warning that "the parallels to the run-up to the war with Iraq are all too striking: remember that in May 2002 U.S. President George W. Bush declared that there was 'No war plan on my desk' despite having actually spent months working on detailed plans for the Iraq invasion." Congress "must not permit the administration to launch another war whose outcome cannot be known, or worse, known all too well," they said.
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Inflation & housing collapse are risks to Fed forecast
Core CPI expected to remain moderate, while housing cools according to plan
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Apr 15, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) April 15 -- The two main risks to the Federal Reserve's benign forecast for the economy are runaway inflation and a collapsing housing market. Economic data to be released in the coming week should provide some reassurance to Fed officials and to themarkets, if economists' forecasts hold true. Rising energy prices could produce some modestly scary headline inflation numbers but core inflation probably remains under control, economists say. The housing numbers will likely show an orderly retreat from unsustainable levels.
The economic data could be overshadowed by the release of minutes on Tuesday from the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting under new Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke, a noted proponent of more transparency at the Fed, could show a few more of his cards in the minutes than his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, felt comfortable revealing. In particular, watch for detailed comments from members about the amount of slack in the economy, or on the risks from the housing market, or about their forecast for more moderate growth later this year.
Currency markets, as usual, will have an ear cocked for any news from Washington as the Group of Seven finance ministers meet Friday ahead of the weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Expectations for news are unusually low. The Washington visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao could also add volatility and interest to the trading week.
CPI: The main number for the week comes on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with the release of the consumer price index for March. Economists polled by MarketWatch see the CPI rising 0.3% or even 0.4% (the average forecast is 0.34%) in March after a tame 0.1% gain in February. Inflation will be, in the words of Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, "Ho hum, except for energy." Economists think the core CPI rose 0.2% in March, which would push the year-over-year increase down to 2% from 2.1% in February. Higher gasoline prices were the main reason for the jump in headline inflation. According to the Energy Department, gasoline prices rose about 6% during the month. However, natural gas prices fell, providing some offset. The risks for core inflation lie on the upside, said Haseeb Ahmed, an economist for JP Morgan Chase. There are three wild cards in the CPI report which could tilt the core higher: Lodging, medical and apparel. A surprise in any of the three wouldn't necessarily represent a fundamental change in the inflation environment, but rather a problem with the month-to-month measurement. Hotel prices soared in March 2004 and March 2005, which helped to push the core rate up 0.3% in each of those months. It might be a new pricing trend in the industry, or it might be coincidence. Ahmed thinks lodging prices rose 1% in March after seasonal adjustment, but "the risk is for a larger gain." Hatzius, on the other hand, is looking for a "tamer report" on lodging this year, because the seasonal factors have been updated and because of reports of reduced pressures on occupancy rates. Medical care prices rose 0.5% in February and could do the same in March, Ahmed said. A one-time change in government reimbursements implemented in January had held down prices in January and were only partially unwound in February, Ahmed said. Apparel prices tumbled 1% in February, probably because of a seasonal adjustment problem. That could be reversed in March.
PPI: The producer price index is likewise expected to show the impact of higher energy costs on the headline number, while the core PPI should be tame. The PPI will be released on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists look for a 0.4% rise in the PPI after plunging 1.4% in February. The core rate is expected to rise 0.2%. As always in the PPI, intermediate and crude prices are worth watching. The core intermediate PPI has been relatively stable for the past five months around 4.5% to 4.8% year-over-year gain. Any movement in either direction could be significant for Fed policy.
Housing Starts: Economists expect housing starts to slow further in March after falling 8% from January's 33-year high courtesy of the hot-house weather. The consensus sees starts sinking about 4% to 2.04 million annualized units in March. With inventories of unsold homes "rising almost inexorably, construction and new starts will surely moderate in the coming months," Ahmed said. A few economists expect a much larger decline. UBS economist James O'Sullivan predicts a 10% drop to bring construction back in line with sales. O'Sullivan notes that February's starts were still above year-ago levels despite higher mortgage rates and softer sales. The Fed is looking for housing to slow at a moderate pace this year. If the market looks headed for an outright collapse, it could bring a quick end to Fed tightening. But it's unlikely the Fed would react to any one month's housing numbers, especially considering the rampant skepticism at the Fed that even falling home prices would curb consumer spending
Core CPI expected to remain moderate, while housing cools according to plan
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Apr 15, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) April 15 -- The two main risks to the Federal Reserve's benign forecast for the economy are runaway inflation and a collapsing housing market. Economic data to be released in the coming week should provide some reassurance to Fed officials and to themarkets, if economists' forecasts hold true. Rising energy prices could produce some modestly scary headline inflation numbers but core inflation probably remains under control, economists say. The housing numbers will likely show an orderly retreat from unsustainable levels.
The economic data could be overshadowed by the release of minutes on Tuesday from the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting under new Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke, a noted proponent of more transparency at the Fed, could show a few more of his cards in the minutes than his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, felt comfortable revealing. In particular, watch for detailed comments from members about the amount of slack in the economy, or on the risks from the housing market, or about their forecast for more moderate growth later this year.
Currency markets, as usual, will have an ear cocked for any news from Washington as the Group of Seven finance ministers meet Friday ahead of the weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Expectations for news are unusually low. The Washington visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao could also add volatility and interest to the trading week.
CPI: The main number for the week comes on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with the release of the consumer price index for March. Economists polled by MarketWatch see the CPI rising 0.3% or even 0.4% (the average forecast is 0.34%) in March after a tame 0.1% gain in February. Inflation will be, in the words of Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, "Ho hum, except for energy." Economists think the core CPI rose 0.2% in March, which would push the year-over-year increase down to 2% from 2.1% in February. Higher gasoline prices were the main reason for the jump in headline inflation. According to the Energy Department, gasoline prices rose about 6% during the month. However, natural gas prices fell, providing some offset. The risks for core inflation lie on the upside, said Haseeb Ahmed, an economist for JP Morgan Chase. There are three wild cards in the CPI report which could tilt the core higher: Lodging, medical and apparel. A surprise in any of the three wouldn't necessarily represent a fundamental change in the inflation environment, but rather a problem with the month-to-month measurement. Hotel prices soared in March 2004 and March 2005, which helped to push the core rate up 0.3% in each of those months. It might be a new pricing trend in the industry, or it might be coincidence. Ahmed thinks lodging prices rose 1% in March after seasonal adjustment, but "the risk is for a larger gain." Hatzius, on the other hand, is looking for a "tamer report" on lodging this year, because the seasonal factors have been updated and because of reports of reduced pressures on occupancy rates. Medical care prices rose 0.5% in February and could do the same in March, Ahmed said. A one-time change in government reimbursements implemented in January had held down prices in January and were only partially unwound in February, Ahmed said. Apparel prices tumbled 1% in February, probably because of a seasonal adjustment problem. That could be reversed in March.
PPI: The producer price index is likewise expected to show the impact of higher energy costs on the headline number, while the core PPI should be tame. The PPI will be released on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists look for a 0.4% rise in the PPI after plunging 1.4% in February. The core rate is expected to rise 0.2%. As always in the PPI, intermediate and crude prices are worth watching. The core intermediate PPI has been relatively stable for the past five months around 4.5% to 4.8% year-over-year gain. Any movement in either direction could be significant for Fed policy.
Housing Starts: Economists expect housing starts to slow further in March after falling 8% from January's 33-year high courtesy of the hot-house weather. The consensus sees starts sinking about 4% to 2.04 million annualized units in March. With inventories of unsold homes "rising almost inexorably, construction and new starts will surely moderate in the coming months," Ahmed said. A few economists expect a much larger decline. UBS economist James O'Sullivan predicts a 10% drop to bring construction back in line with sales. O'Sullivan notes that February's starts were still above year-ago levels despite higher mortgage rates and softer sales. The Fed is looking for housing to slow at a moderate pace this year. If the market looks headed for an outright collapse, it could bring a quick end to Fed tightening. But it's unlikely the Fed would react to any one month's housing numbers, especially considering the rampant skepticism at the Fed that even falling home prices would curb consumer spending
Pat494
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I have just listened to Nicole Elliott and Robin Griffiths on Bloomberg.
One or two points I remember are:-
1. The Nikkei is expected to go on up reaching 19,000 to 20,000 in coming months.
2.Singapore index to rise rapidly.
3. Nymex up.
4. Energy stocks up. Oil may well rise over $70 a barrel to near $90 !!
One or two points I remember are:-
1. The Nikkei is expected to go on up reaching 19,000 to 20,000 in coming months.
2.Singapore index to rise rapidly.
3. Nymex up.
4. Energy stocks up. Oil may well rise over $70 a barrel to near $90 !!
Oil Rises to $70 in New York on Gasoline Demand, Iran Standoff
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil topped $70 a barrel in New York, nearing a record, on concern changes to U.S. gasoline content will disrupt supplies as the peak driving season begins. Gasoline is trading close to a six-month high as U.S. refineries replace a chemical additive with ethanol to reduce environmental damage. Oil also gained because of Iran's defiance of United Nations calls to stop enriching uranium. "There are two reasons for the increase, one is the physical limits in the oil products and then the tensions in the Middle East,'' said Naohiro Niimura, vice president of derivatives at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo." The tensions have the funds buying back into the energy side.''
Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 68 cents, or 1 percent, to $70 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in after-hours electronic trading. That was the highest since Aug. 31. The contract traded at $69.78 at 12:39 p.m. in Singapore. Prices have climbed 15 percent this year. Oil reached a record $70.85 on Aug. 30, a day after Hurricane Katrina swept onshore and damaged oil platforms and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico. Brent crude oil, used to price two-thirds of the world's oil, rose as much as 83 cents, or 1.2 percent, to an all-time high of $71.40 a barrel for June delivery on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. On April 14, Brent climbed 71 cents, or 1 percent, to close at $70.57 a barrel after breaking a record of $69 on April 11.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. typically peaks as travel increases following the Memorial Day holiday at the end of May until the Labor Day holiday in September. The period corresponds to the long summer school holidays in the U.S. Gasoline with methyl tertiary butyl ether, is being removed in favor of ethanol after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater supplies. Ethanol can't be mixed into the fuel during the refining process. Adding the ethanol at distribution centers before it is sent to service stations has created some supply bottlenecks. "Gasoline prices are higher as we approach the driving season, and because of concern that supplies may be limited because of issues with the new specification,'' Koji Suzuki, an analyst at Livedoor Commodity Co. in Tokyo.
Nuclear Program
Iran formed battalions of suicide bombers to hit U.S. and British targets should the Persian Gulf country's nuclear sites be attacked, the Sunday Times said, citing Iranian officials. Japan this month will hold talks with Iran on the Middle Eastern nation's nuclear development program, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported, without saying where it got the information. Japanese officials will visit Iran and urge the country's government to stop enriching uranium. The officials will convey their concern that Japan's planned oil production project in Iran could be negatively affected unless the problem is resolved, the newspaper said.
U.S. Republican Senator Richard Lugar and three Democratic colleagues yesterday called for direct U.S. talks with Iran to defuse political tension about its nuclear capability and address global concerns about energy supplies. Iran last week said it has enriched uranium, a step needed to build nuclear power plants or weapons. Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer and any cutoff in supplies might send oil prices higher. Crude oil accounts for about 60 percent of the retail price of gasoline. Iran pumped 3.85 million barrels of oil a day in March, according to Bloomberg estimates. The country is also the second-largest producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Gasoline Supplies
Gasoline for May delivery gained as much as 1.19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $2.1198 a gallon in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. gasoline inventories fell 1.8 percent to 207.9 million barrels in the week to April 7. They declined by 18 million barrels, or 8 percent, since Feb. 24, the report showed. Inventories typically increase 3 million barrels in April, according to the Energy Department.
Gasoline rose to a record for a third day in Tokyo. The October contract gained as much as 1,580 yen, or 2.4 percent, to 68,160 yen a kiloliter ($2.18 a gallon). Oil for September delivery rose as much as 660 yen, or 1.4 percent, to 49,490 yen a kiloliter ($66.58 a barrel) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Asia's biggest energy futures market.
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil topped $70 a barrel in New York, nearing a record, on concern changes to U.S. gasoline content will disrupt supplies as the peak driving season begins. Gasoline is trading close to a six-month high as U.S. refineries replace a chemical additive with ethanol to reduce environmental damage. Oil also gained because of Iran's defiance of United Nations calls to stop enriching uranium. "There are two reasons for the increase, one is the physical limits in the oil products and then the tensions in the Middle East,'' said Naohiro Niimura, vice president of derivatives at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo." The tensions have the funds buying back into the energy side.''
Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 68 cents, or 1 percent, to $70 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in after-hours electronic trading. That was the highest since Aug. 31. The contract traded at $69.78 at 12:39 p.m. in Singapore. Prices have climbed 15 percent this year. Oil reached a record $70.85 on Aug. 30, a day after Hurricane Katrina swept onshore and damaged oil platforms and refineries along the Gulf of Mexico. Brent crude oil, used to price two-thirds of the world's oil, rose as much as 83 cents, or 1.2 percent, to an all-time high of $71.40 a barrel for June delivery on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. On April 14, Brent climbed 71 cents, or 1 percent, to close at $70.57 a barrel after breaking a record of $69 on April 11.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. typically peaks as travel increases following the Memorial Day holiday at the end of May until the Labor Day holiday in September. The period corresponds to the long summer school holidays in the U.S. Gasoline with methyl tertiary butyl ether, is being removed in favor of ethanol after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater supplies. Ethanol can't be mixed into the fuel during the refining process. Adding the ethanol at distribution centers before it is sent to service stations has created some supply bottlenecks. "Gasoline prices are higher as we approach the driving season, and because of concern that supplies may be limited because of issues with the new specification,'' Koji Suzuki, an analyst at Livedoor Commodity Co. in Tokyo.
Nuclear Program
Iran formed battalions of suicide bombers to hit U.S. and British targets should the Persian Gulf country's nuclear sites be attacked, the Sunday Times said, citing Iranian officials. Japan this month will hold talks with Iran on the Middle Eastern nation's nuclear development program, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported, without saying where it got the information. Japanese officials will visit Iran and urge the country's government to stop enriching uranium. The officials will convey their concern that Japan's planned oil production project in Iran could be negatively affected unless the problem is resolved, the newspaper said.
U.S. Republican Senator Richard Lugar and three Democratic colleagues yesterday called for direct U.S. talks with Iran to defuse political tension about its nuclear capability and address global concerns about energy supplies. Iran last week said it has enriched uranium, a step needed to build nuclear power plants or weapons. Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer and any cutoff in supplies might send oil prices higher. Crude oil accounts for about 60 percent of the retail price of gasoline. Iran pumped 3.85 million barrels of oil a day in March, according to Bloomberg estimates. The country is also the second-largest producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Gasoline Supplies
Gasoline for May delivery gained as much as 1.19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $2.1198 a gallon in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. gasoline inventories fell 1.8 percent to 207.9 million barrels in the week to April 7. They declined by 18 million barrels, or 8 percent, since Feb. 24, the report showed. Inventories typically increase 3 million barrels in April, according to the Energy Department.
Gasoline rose to a record for a third day in Tokyo. The October contract gained as much as 1,580 yen, or 2.4 percent, to 68,160 yen a kiloliter ($2.18 a gallon). Oil for September delivery rose as much as 660 yen, or 1.4 percent, to 49,490 yen a kiloliter ($66.58 a barrel) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Asia's biggest energy futures market.