- Status
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
Update: first long from around 6310 still running, as is the second if you're comfortable with gap openings. Yesterday gave a potential 3 bar swing low but the low was taken out today so today's will be the potential swing low bar.
It's interesting because the bounce back is now at around yesterday's high and some will enter long if it goes.
good trading
jon
It's interesting because the bounce back is now at around yesterday's high and some will enter long if it goes.
good trading
jon
Attachments
watson
Junior member
- Messages
- 27
- Likes
- 2
Yes, I see the swing low too. Place an order to open tomorrow if we get a rise from the open. Also attached, see that we have an upward pennant formation, which could signal a breakout.
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
We've now got up to four positions running depending on how people choose to deal with gap openings. For the purposes of this thread I'm not introducing any sophisticated exit points (see firewalkers thread for that 
) and merely raising stops to below the last swinglow - 6529 atm. However, that would leave both the last two positions underwater so maybe lifting to breakeven on those is prudent at this stage.
good trading
jon
) and merely raising stops to below the last swinglow - 6529 atm. However, that would leave both the last two positions underwater so maybe lifting to breakeven on those is prudent at this stage.good trading
jon
Attachments
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
Well, prudence was the name of the game
All positions now closed - total points around + 310 or so.
With the breach of the last swing low the trend changes to down (needs confirmation). The really agressive will have gone short on that breach, but the more cautious will await the first three bar reaction.
Good trading.
jon
All positions now closed - total points around + 310 or so.
With the breach of the last swing low the trend changes to down (needs confirmation). The really agressive will have gone short on that breach, but the more cautious will await the first three bar reaction.
Good trading.
jon
Attachments
Good morning barjon. I have had a problem with my registration and therefore been unable to post but have got that sorted now. I have been reading this thread with some interest over the last few days. I am a newbie to trading, trying to find my style, and having just read Marc Rivallands book, I feel that Swing Trading maybe the way.
I hope that I will be able to pick your brains and learn how to at least not lose too much to start with. Your post this morning was very useful in that I had not noticed that a new swing low had been made. Preumably it is now wise to wait for a 3 bar swing upwards before thinking about selling short?
I have been reading this thread with some interest over the last few days. I am a newbie to trading, trying to find my style, and having just read Marc Rivallands book, I feel that Swing Trading maybe the way.I hope that I will be able to pick your brains and learn how to at least not lose too much to start with. Your post this morning was very useful in that I had not noticed that a new swing low had been made. Preumably it is now wise to wait for a 3 bar swing upwards before thinking about selling short?
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
Hi, Yamin - welcome to T2W
This thread was a sort of follow on to the article about simple swing trading http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/first-steps/articles/general_articles/simple-swing-trading/ which you may find interesting.
It's pretty much along the lines of Marc Rivalland's approach - particularly his Gann modification of not requiring three consecutive up (down) days of retracement.
I use this basic system, with a few additional rules and conditions, for swing trading a stable of ftse 100 shares with reasonable success, so I would say it is worth your attention.
As I said, the really aggressive would already be short but, as you say, the more cautious will await a three bar + upward reaction. The breach of the swing low is fairly marginal so far and a wider breach or a few days below the last swing low would be nice to see for confirmation. Otherwise, we'll find out if it signifies a real break when (if) a short signal arrives
cheers
jon
This thread was a sort of follow on to the article about simple swing trading http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/first-steps/articles/general_articles/simple-swing-trading/ which you may find interesting.
It's pretty much along the lines of Marc Rivalland's approach - particularly his Gann modification of not requiring three consecutive up (down) days of retracement.
I use this basic system, with a few additional rules and conditions, for swing trading a stable of ftse 100 shares with reasonable success, so I would say it is worth your attention.
As I said, the really aggressive would already be short but, as you say, the more cautious will await a three bar + upward reaction. The breach of the swing low is fairly marginal so far and a wider breach or a few days below the last swing low would be nice to see for confirmation. Otherwise, we'll find out if it signifies a real break when (if) a short signal arrives
cheers
jon
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
Not a doji, fibo, if you take account of the gap open.
Worth taking a look at the long term weekly chart which is still comfortably in up trend. With that in mind and with the penultimate swing low holding today's low some may be tempted to play long for a continued bounce if today's high goes on Monday anticipating either a false trend change (with today a potential swing low) or the first reaction in a new down trend which may extend to around 6570 - 6590 or so.
Otherwise, the assumption is that the trend has changed and we await that reaction (should it continue) to extend to three bars to form a potential swing high and short opportunity.
good trading
jon
Worth taking a look at the long term weekly chart which is still comfortably in up trend. With that in mind and with the penultimate swing low holding today's low some may be tempted to play long for a continued bounce if today's high goes on Monday anticipating either a false trend change (with today a potential swing low) or the first reaction in a new down trend which may extend to around 6570 - 6590 or so.
Otherwise, the assumption is that the trend has changed and we await that reaction (should it continue) to extend to three bars to form a potential swing high and short opportunity.
good trading
jon
Attachments
Hmmmmm...
Is this looking more like a false trend change? I have been watching a few other shares from the FTSE and they all seem to be now rising above their old swing highs, or certainly heading that way. Is that any indication?
Is this looking more like a false trend change? I have been watching a few other shares from the FTSE and they all seem to be now rising above their old swing highs, or certainly heading that way. Is that any indication?
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
yamin
Possibly - we'll find out soon
Although the action's messy we've got our first potential swing high in the assumed new downtrend and around 6595 will be short entry point. A continued rise to above 6686 will confirm it as a false trend change.
cheers
jon
Attachments
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
er, the second one is the red one on your chart. from what i can see you're using a chart that doesn't recognise gap openings which is why yours looks a bit different to mine.
as i said, the action is messy because there are three higher highs but not higher lows (on my chart, that is)
the choice is to short as soon as the low of today's bar goes or to wait to see a close below and enter the next day.
cheers
jon
as i said, the action is messy because there are three higher highs but not higher lows (on my chart, that is)
the choice is to short as soon as the low of today's bar goes or to wait to see a close below and enter the next day.
cheers
jon
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
Jon,
Which software do you use. Still testing the water in trading so trying to avoid spending loads. Will need all the money I can spare
yamin
I use sharescope gold - http://www.sharescope.co.uk/ - which is not expensive.
btw as you test the water, remember that I am only showing the basic proposition of simple swing trading. It is not a mechanical "holy grail". You will note that I never say enter here or exit here, but I just point up the various key points that appear. Anyone trading at those points will have their own way of doing so (or not taking a trade, as the case may be) and each have their own plan.
cheers
jon
- Status
